Rational Security

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare’s Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina and Contributing Editors Eric Ciaramella and Alex Zerden to talk through the week’s big national security and foreign policy news, including: “The Road to Damascus.” Over the past two weeks, the Trump administration has done an extraordinary about-face on U.S. policy towards Syria, installing almost universal exceptions to most existing sanctions programs and promising to end others. European and other allies seem poised to follow suit, all in an effort to forestall the feared collapse of the post-Assad transitional government being headed by Ahmed al-Sharaa, himself a former terrorist leader. But will it be enough to put post-Civil War Syria on the road to recovery? And will this new policy orientation prove sustainable?“No Fly Zone.” Ukraine struck a historic blow deep into Russian territory over the weekend with a daring series of coordinated drone attacks—dubbed “Operation Spider Web”—that may have wiped out as much as a third of Moscow’s strategically important long range bombers. But will the attack help drive the costs of the conflict home to Russia, or trigger another round of escalation? And how will it be received by the Trump administration, several senior members of which are skeptical of U.S. support for Ukraine?“Double Taxation.” President Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs suffered a pair of defeats in federal court last week, as two different courts chose to enjoin them, for two different sets of reasons. While both decisions have since been stayed, it’s a discouraging sign for the viability of the legal authorities being relied on by the Trump administration. Yet President Trump has continued to threaten tariffs aggressively, including against Europe. How big a threat are these legal holdings to the Trump administration’s policy agenda? And how will they impact its efforts to negotiate new bilateral trade deals, with allies and rivals alike?In Object Lessons, Eric polished off the last of The Rehearsal’s Season 2 and was left in awe of the show’s ability to actually become a show. Nastya returned from colder climates with a warm endorsement of all things Finland: its history, its icy stare at Russia, and its impressive ability to survive both. Speaking of war, Scott dove sword-first into fantasy, reminded of Joe Abercrombie’s The First Law trilogy after the new release of “The Devils.” And Alex kept it historical with a recommendation of “The Watchdog: How the Truman Committee Battled Corruption and Helped Win World War Two,” by Steve Drummond.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with the AI-oriented Lawfare Senior Editors Alan Rozenshtein and Kevin Frazier to talk through the week’s top AI-focused news stories, including:“Oh Sure, Now He’s Into Free Trade.” President Trump has repealed the Biden administration’s rule setting strict limits on the diffusion of high-end AI technology, opening the door to the global transfer of the technologies powering U.S. AI development, including advanced chipsets. And we’re already seeing results of that policy in a recent deal the president signed with the UAE that would work toward the transfer of advanced semiconductors. How should AI diffusion fit into the broader global strategy surrounding the AI industry in the United States? And what approach does the Trump administration seem inclined to take?“Paving Over the Playing Field.” House Republicans recently included a provision in a House bill that would have preempted state efforts to legislate on and regulate the AI industry for a decade. Is this sort of federal preemption a prudent step given the broader competitive dynamics with China? Or does it go too far in insulating AI companies and users from accountability for their actions, particularly where they put the public interest and safety at risk?“Speechless.” A federal district court in Florida has issued a notable opinion of first impression in a tragic case involving a teenager who committed suicide, allegedly as a result of encouragement from an AI bot powered by the company character.ai. Among other holdings, the judge concluded that the AI’s output was not itself protected speech. Is this holding correct? And what impact will it have on the development of the AI industry?In Object Lessons, the AI Guys went surprisingly analog. Alan recommended some good, ol’ fashioned, 19th-century imperial espionage with “The Great Game,” by Peter Hopkirk. Kevin, meanwhile, is keeping an eye on a different kind of game: the NCAA Division I Baseball Championship, in which he’s throwing up some Hook 'em Horns for Texas. And Scott is trying to “Economize” his time with The Economist’s Espresso app, a quick, curated read that fits neatly into a busy morning.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with a particularly baritone cast of Lawfare colleagues—co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes, Foreign Policy Editor Dana Stuster, and Senior Editor (aka Legal Correspondent) Roger Parloff—to discuss the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“Let’s Sheikh On It.” President Trump completed a surprisingly historic trip to the Persian Gulf last week, which began with the type of fanfare that Trump loves and only Saudi Arabia can provide and ended with the controversial gift of a new Air Force One from Qatar at the president’s reported request. In between, however, Trump reiterated his calls for an end to the Gaza conflict, became directly involved in negotiating the release of the last living American-Israeli hostage from Hamas, and announced a dramatic about-face in U.S. sanctions policy toward the new regime in Syria that caught even his closest advisers by surprise—all measures that are unlikely to be greeted warmly by the man who has traditionally been Trump’s closest regional ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. How big a pivot point was Trump’s trip? And what could its implications be for U.S. policy towards the region?“Not Retiring from a Fight.” The Supreme Court issued an unprecedented third opinion off its emergency docket this past week in the inaptly named A.A.R.P. v. Trump, part of the ongoing litigation over the Trump administration’s controversial efforts to remove Venezuelan nationals under the Alien Enemies Act. In a 7-2 ruling, the Court held that the summary notice and opportunity to challenge that U.S. officials had provided to some individuals prior to their removal was inadequate. But as litigation through the lower courts continues, what impact is this holding likely to have on the administration’s broader immigration policies?“Shell Shocked.” Former FBI Director James Comey found himself at the center of an unlikely controversy this week, when his decision to relay a photo of shells arranged to form the numbers “8647” that he reportedly found on the beach was interpreted as a death threat against President Trump, triggering a Secret Service interview and potentially more legal consequences to come. How seriously should this incident be taken? And what does it tell us about the Trump administration’s use of prosecutorial discretion?In Object Lessons, as white smoke rose over the Vatican, Roger also turned his gaze heavenward—diving into Benjamin Blech and Roy Doliner’s “The Sistine Secrets” to uncover the subtexts Michelangelo left behind. Inspired by the same papal events, Scott turned to Conclave for a peek inside the process. Ben planted seeds of solidarity and resilience (or was that resistance?) across from the Russian embassy. And Dana’s incoming students at Franklin and Marshall College are about to share in his appreciation for Osamu Dazai’s “The Setting Sun.”To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Natalie Orpett, Tyler McBrien, and Daniel Byman to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Borderline Behavior.” A major flare-up over the disputed region of Kashmir took place this past week, leading to a major exchange of hostilities between the nuclear powers of India and Pakistan before they agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire—one that is mostly holding, despite alleged violations on both sides. How durable a resolution does this seem likely to be? And what additional steps need to be taken to preserve peace?“Parting Ways.” President Trump announced a major change to U.S. policies in the Red Sea this week, in the form of a ceasefire with the Yemeni armed group and de facto government Ansar Allah (also known as the Houthis), in which they would cease attacks on U.S. shipping. But the credibility of this commitment is in doubt, as are the implications of U.S. actions for shipping through the Red Sea more broadly. What should we make of this major policy shift? “First Class Problems.” President Trump announced this week that he would be accepting the gift of a luxury jet from the government of Qatar for use as Air Force One during his presidency, which would then be transferred to his foundation shortly before he leaves office in 2029. How big a problem is this? And how can he accept this gift, given that the Constitution’s Foreign Emoluments Clause prohibits “accept[ing]...any present…of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State”?In Object Lessons, Tyler delighted in the Financial Times’s trolling of its own “Lunch with the FT,” in which Sam Altman’s kitchen and gross misuse of olive oil becomes a bizarre metaphor for OpenAI. Natalie delighted in some hometown, Pope-town pride (and some Lou Malnati's pizza). Scott delighted in discovering both Dolcezza and their affogato with decaf espresso, a dessert for those who crave flavor and excitement but who also like sleep. And Dan, in utterly failing his wife, delighted in reaping the benefits of her Mother’s Day gift: a little contraption that sits somewhere between wellness hack and medieval torture rack.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin “The Beard” Wittes and Anastasiia (and Ava) Lapatina to discuss the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“A Waltz on Thin Ice.” Weeks after the SignalGate controversy, Mike Waltz is out as National Security Adviser and set to be nominated as U.N. Ambassador. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, is in for a record fourth high-ranking appointment, though rumors are circulating about just how long he may remain in the position. How big a deal is this switch in leadership? What might its broader implications be?“Resource Extraction.” After months of negotiations, Ukraine and the Trump administration have finally signed a minerals agreement that gives the United States (and, perhaps more importantly, President Trump) a financial stake in Ukraine’s ongoing independence. Is the deal just exploiting Ukraine’s vulnerability? Or is there a chance it might contribute to a better outcome for the beleaguered country?“Liquid Assets.” Russia has gotten its liquefied natural gas (or LNG) facility off the ground in the Arctic and is getting ready to export through a shadowfleet of unregistered vessels to eager buyers in China who are undeterred by Western sanctions. What does the situation tell us about the effectiveness of sanctions? And what is Russia up to in the Arctic?In Object Lessons, Ben logrolled Lawfare’s accidentally-on-purpose, Fridays-at-4pm YouTube show, Lawfare Live (like, Like and Subscribe to our channel!). Scott’s getting ready for grilled pizza season and shared tips for how to handle the heat. And turning the temperature down a notch, Nastya recommended Minna Ålander’s substack, Northern Flank Notes, for more uutiset on the Nordic-Baltic-Arctic region.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds and James Pearce to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Rounding the ‘Feels Like It’s Been a Century’ Mark.” As President Trump comes to the end of his second first 100 days in office, he and his supporters are laying claim to FDR’s mantle as the president to accomplish the most in such a short period of time. But how much success has Trump really had in enacting his broader policy agenda? How should we be seeing Trump’s administration as it rounds this milestone?“The Art of the Appeal.” More than three months into his second term in the White House, President Trump has clearly embraced a new legal strategy: antagonistic towards the courts, aggressive in its claims of presidential power, and more than willing to run to the Supreme Court for validation. But so far that validation has been slow to come, and there are signs that even some judges appointed by Trump are growing weary and wary of his tactics. How successful is Trump’s legal strategy proving? Could an alternative be more effective?“DOGE-ing a Bullet.” A new report from the minority staff of the Senate’s permanent subcommittee on investigations claims that Elon Musk’s involvement in the Trump administration and his role in dismantling federal agencies could save his various companies billions in regulatory costs and other potential liabilities. Is this a clear conflict of interest? Or does this report reflect other factors in play?In object lessons, Molly had a mighty craic in happening upon Blue Lights, a police procedural set in Belfast, and urges you to give it a lash. Scott, hailing victory and fighting for Old DC, cheered the thought of a new RFK Stadium. And James encouraged listeners to maki their way over to a local Japanese restaurant, where the sushi isn’t the only thing rolled.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower, Tyler McBrien, and Kevin Frazier to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Aliens vs. Predators.” Despite forceful legal pushback—including by the U.S. Supreme Court—the Trump administration is working hard to continue its campaign to remove foreign aliens it accuses of pursuing a “predatory incursion” from the country using the Alien Enemies Act. How far will it go? And to what extent can the courts (or anyone else) stop them?“Aye Aye Robot.” Both the Biden and Trump administrations were fans of artificial intelligence (AI) and set out policies to incorporate it into government decision-making. But while the Biden administration focused much of its efforts on guardrails, the Trump administration has increasingly torn them down as part of a broader push to incorporate the nascent technology into government decision-making. What are the risks and potential benefits of this sort of government by AI? “For Pete’s Sake.” Beleaguered Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is more beleaguered than ever this week, after reports that, in addition to inadvertently sharing classified secrets with Atlantic reporter Jeffrey Goldberg, he also passed them to his wife, brother, and personal lawyer on another Signal thread. Meanwhile, a former adviser (and established Trump loyalist) went public with allegations that Hegseth’s management has led to chaos at the Defense Department and called for his resignation. Will this be enough for the Trump administration to cut bait and run? Or does his support in the MAGAsphere simply run too deep?In object lessons, Tyler, fresh from biking adventures abroad, hyped the routes, photos, and resources on bikepacking.com, if physical exertion is your idea of relaxation. Anna, finding other ways to relax, came to the defense of The Big Short in helping to soothe her anxiety amid more current market upheaval. Doubling down on the “no relaxation without tension” theme, Scott’s outie binge-watched Severance while on vacation. And Kevin, very on-brand, was quick to bring us a feel-good story of a new community partnership to support AI skill-building in Austin-based nonprofits. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with co-hosts emeritus Benjamin Wittes, Quinta Jurecic and Lawfare's new senior legal fellow James Pearce to talk through the week's biggest national security news stories, including:“Midnight Planes Going Anywhere.” The Supreme Court has weighed in on the Trump administration’s decision to quickly fly dozens of Venezuelan nationals to El Salvador with little to no meaningful process, holding that those detained had to be provided notice and an opportunity to challenge their removal, but only through habeas in their place of detention. Meanwhile, we are still awaiting the Court’s final decision on whether a lower court can direct the executive branch to seek the return of another man who was removed to El Salvador by mistake. What will these decisions mean for the Trump administration’s aggressive deportation policies?“All the King’s Horses and All the King’s Men, Won’t Be Able to Put Humphrey’s Together Again.” Watchers of the D.C. Circuit may have suffered whiplash this week, as an appellate panel reversed a district court’s conclusion that the Trump administration’s removal of statutorily protected members of the Merit Service Protection Board and National Labor Review Board was most likely unlawful, only for the panel itself to be reversed in short order by the whole en banc court. The issues now seem clearly poised for review by the Supreme Court. Is Humphrey’s Executor and other case law preserving independent agencies toast? Or might the Court stop short of killing independent agencies altogether?“A Duty of Pander.” Attorney General Pam Bondi punished a Justice Department attorney this week after he admitted to a federal court that he had not been provided adequate answers to some of the court’s questions. It’s the latest in a parade of disciplinary actions accusing attorneys of disloyalty for engaging in candor with the federal courts over the confusion that some of the Trump administration’s policies have caused. Is the Attorney General within her rights to crack down on these actions? And what impact will her demand for loyalty have on the Justice Department’s relationship with the federal courts?For object lessons, Quinta recommended the movie "Margin Call" as a reflection on the last financial crisis, as we prepare for the next one. Ben brought attention to Russia's brutal and inhumane attack on a children's playground in Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky's hometown of Kryvi Rih, which underscores just how committed Russia really is to peace. Scott shared his latest home pizza discovery—a one hour no-knead recipe for pan pizza crust from King Arthur's Baking—as well as his next experiment: an all edge pieces pan pizza. And James gave a double-header object lesson, sharing his participation in the Baker to Vegas footrace and his reading of another story about something even more inhuman: Mary Shelley's Frankenstein.

This week, Scott joined his Lawfare colleagues Natalie Orpett and Eric Ciaramella to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“In Mother Russia, Sometimes Bear Poke You.” Discussions over a possible broader ceasefire in Ukraine—beyond the temporary (and limited) energy and Black Sea ceasefire agreements last week—appear to have ground to a halt over Russian demands. Many observers suspect this is simply a stalling technique by Russian President Vladimir Putin, as Russia prepares for another offensive intended to improve his negotiating leverage. President Trump, meanwhile, in a rare swipe at the Russian dictator, has said he’s “pissed off.” But will Trump bring leverage to bear enough for Putin to budge? Or are the ceasefire negotiations like to stay stuck in the mud—and, if so, will Trump know who to blame?“Nuukin’ Futs.” Vice President J.D. Vance visited the northernmost U.S. military base in Greenland last week and delivered a speech in front of U.S. service members that accused Denmark of neglecting its Greenland protectorate and failing to adequately protect it from China and Russia—shortcomings that, in his telling, justify President Trump’s stated intent to gain U.S. control over the island nation. Is there any truth to Vance’s allegations? And will his remarks help or hurt the Trump administration’s purported objective of securing Greenland and improving U.S. access to its various resources? “Third Term’s the Charm.” In an interview this week, President Trump insisted to reporters that he was serious about potentially pursuing a third term and suggested that there were “methods” by which he could do so, in spite of the 22nd Amendment’s two-term limitation on presidents. How seriously should we take his threat? Are there arguments that could carry water — and will it matter?In object lessons, Natalie—tire-d of DC traffic—“spoke” highly of her beloved ebike. Scott, flying solo in NYC, curled up with his Kindle at Amor y Amargo, contemplating the question: how many Amaros does it take to make the perfect Sazerac? And Eric praised “Language City: The Fight to Preserve Endangered Mother Tongues in New York,” by Ross Perlin—a fascinating portrait of linguistic diversity and the fight to preserve it.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.