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Rational Security
The “Leftover Chicken Kyiv” Edition
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This week, Scott joined his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpett, and Anastasiia Lapatina for a rare, all-in-person discussion of the week’s big national security news, including:
- “Chicken Kyiv, Served Cold.” The Trump administration’s vision for a peace settlement in Ukraine is coming into focus—and it’s not the one many Ukrainians and Europeans were hoping for. In negotiations that have largely excluded Ukrainian and European partners—and amidst a barrage of hostile attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s democratic legitimacy—the Trump administration appears to be insisting on some U.S. stake in Ukraine’s rare earth minerals while remaining unwilling to support Ukraine’s NATO membership and resistant to providing hard security guarantees in response. Are the contours of such a deal something Ukraine can agree to? And will it advance U.S. and Ukrainian national security interests?
- “Euro Vision.” In some of his first comments since emerging from elections as Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz called for European independence from the United States, in light of the Trump administration’s increasing neglect (and even hostility) to longstanding transatlantic partnerships. And Ukraine may be the first front for this new policy orientation, as European officials have suggested an increased willingness to deploy ground troops to Ukraine, increase their own assistance levels, and even make an alternate offer for access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. How much potential is there for a truly independent European foreign policy? And what will it mean for U.S. national interests?
- “Baywatch Reruns.” As part of its aggressive campaign against undocumented migrants, the Trump administration has expanded its use of the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay for what it claims to be the “worst of the worst” undocumented migrants involved in violent crimes. But recent reporting has cast serious doubt on whether everyone who has been detained at Guantanamo meets this qualification, while others have raised questions about the conditions in which detainees are being held and the legal basis for the involvement of military personnel. What is the Trump administration really trying to accomplish? And is Guantanamo Bay once again becoming a black mark on American rule of law?
In object lessons, Natalie confirmed the existence of the year’s most top-secret, exclusive diplomatic gathering—the Lawfare Baby Summit. Anastasiia unveiled Escalation, a long-anticipated narrative podcast series from Lawfare and Goat Rodeo about the history of the U.S.-Ukraine relationship. Scott—in true elder Millennial fashion—identified with the gracefully aging, definitely not old, Before Trilogy from Richard Linklater. And Ben marked the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine with a somber reflection on the sparse turnout at a Lincoln Memorial rally over the weekend, underscoring the ongoing challenge of building mass political movements from within small communities.
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The "Middle East War to End Middle East Wars" Edition
01:14:24|This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Foreign Policy Editors Daniel Byman and Dana Stuster to talk through the week’s big news in Israel and Iran, including:“The Nuclear Option.” Israel crossed the rubicon late last week and took direct military action against Iran’s nuclear weapons program, among other targets, in an aggressive unilateral military campaign that has only expanded in the ensuing days. Iran, meanwhile, has reciprocated with volleys of attacks against Israel, some of which are getting through the substantial missile defenses Israel (and the United States) have deployed. It’s the Middle East war everyone has feared for more than a decade. How will it come to an end? And what will its ramifications be for the region?“Bibi Got Back.” Israel has threatened to take direct military action against Iran over its nuclear program multiple times over the past two decades but has always stopped short. Why did Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proceed this time? And what will the implications be for his government, which has been teetering on the edge of collapse? And for his relationship with President Trump, his once close ally who declined to back his decision to proceed?“Bye-Atollah.” While Israel’s official target has been Iran’s nuclear and military complexes, many observers suspect that their real goal is something else: regime change. And recent reports that Netanyahu proposed killing Iranian political and spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini—but relented after objections from the Trump administration—suggest they may be right. What might Iran look like if its current regime collapses? And will it help or hurt Israeli (and U.S.) security interests?In Object Lessons, Tyler sang the praises of online radio station NTS.Live and NTS Guides to all of your quirky and eclectic musical tastes. Scott didn’t miss a beat with his throwback recommendation of Schoolhouse Rock song covers, with a particular fondness for Pavement’s rendition of No More Kings. And Dana shared his appreciation for analysis that takes Israel’s and Iran’s strategic calculus seriously.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.The “How Many Constitutional Crises Can We Fit Into One Episode?” Edition
01:17:17|This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Molly Reynolds and Quinta Jurecic, and Contributing Editor Chris Mirasola, to focus on the week’s big domestic news, including:“Drama Majors, Meet Major Drama.” In the glittering city of Los Angeles, the Trump administration has taken the dramatic step of calling up the California National Guard and deploying them alongside active duty Marines to secure federal personnel and facilities, specifically against protestors demonstrating against the Trump administration’s draconian immigration policies. Is this the beginning of a broader threat to the constitutional order, as some of Trump’s critics say it is? And what should we make of President Trump’s suggestion that he may yet invoke the controversial Insurrection Act?“Precision Rescission, What’s Your Mission?” The Trump administration has asked Congress to formally rescind a slice of the federal spending it has been withholding since entering office, specifically relating to foreign assistance and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting—a request the House seems poised to move on this week. How likely is it that Congress will agree to the cut in funds? And what will the implications be for relevant legal challenges and Trump’s broader agenda?“There and Back Again.” After an unexpected journey and epic delays on the part of the government, the Trump administration has finally repatriated Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the man who was mistakenly deported to El Salvador—only to charge him with human trafficking and other federal crimes in Tennessee. How serious are the charges against him? And is this likely to be a win or loss for the administration’s broader immigration agenda?In object lessons, Molly shared a ranking of New York mayoral candidates by their bagel orders—and whose order is so bad, it’s a schmear on their very New Yorker-ness. Quinta recommends Ava Kofman’s profile of Curtis Yarvin in the New Yorker as a masterclass in the art of meticulous evisceration. Scott introduced his 4-year-old to his old Tintin books by Hergé—because it’s never too early to get into the drawbacks of colonialism. And Chris fled real DC drama for fake DC drama with The Residence on Netflix.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.The “Huffin’ and Puffin” Edition
01:10:20|This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare’s Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina and Contributing Editors Eric Ciaramella and Alex Zerden to talk through the week’s big national security and foreign policy news, including: “The Road to Damascus.” Over the past two weeks, the Trump administration has done an extraordinary about-face on U.S. policy towards Syria, installing almost universal exceptions to most existing sanctions programs and promising to end others. European and other allies seem poised to follow suit, all in an effort to forestall the feared collapse of the post-Assad transitional government being headed by Ahmed al-Sharaa, himself a former terrorist leader. But will it be enough to put post-Civil War Syria on the road to recovery? And will this new policy orientation prove sustainable?“No Fly Zone.” Ukraine struck a historic blow deep into Russian territory over the weekend with a daring series of coordinated drone attacks—dubbed “Operation Spider Web”—that may have wiped out as much as a third of Moscow’s strategically important long range bombers. But will the attack help drive the costs of the conflict home to Russia, or trigger another round of escalation? And how will it be received by the Trump administration, several senior members of which are skeptical of U.S. support for Ukraine?“Double Taxation.” President Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs suffered a pair of defeats in federal court last week, as two different courts chose to enjoin them, for two different sets of reasons. While both decisions have since been stayed, it’s a discouraging sign for the viability of the legal authorities being relied on by the Trump administration. Yet President Trump has continued to threaten tariffs aggressively, including against Europe. How big a threat are these legal holdings to the Trump administration’s policy agenda? And how will they impact its efforts to negotiate new bilateral trade deals, with allies and rivals alike?In Object Lessons, Eric polished off the last of The Rehearsal’s Season 2 and was left in awe of the show’s ability to actually become a show. Nastya returned from colder climates with a warm endorsement of all things Finland: its history, its icy stare at Russia, and its impressive ability to survive both. Speaking of war, Scott dove sword-first into fantasy, reminded of Joe Abercrombie’s The First Law trilogy after the new release of “The Devils.” And Alex kept it historical with a recommendation of “The Watchdog: How the Truman Committee Battled Corruption and Helped Win World War Two,” by Steve Drummond.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.The “Hi, Robot!” Edition
01:23:33|This week, Scott sat down with the AI-oriented Lawfare Senior Editors Alan Rozenshtein and Kevin Frazier to talk through the week’s top AI-focused news stories, including:“Oh Sure, Now He’s Into Free Trade.” President Trump has repealed the Biden administration’s rule setting strict limits on the diffusion of high-end AI technology, opening the door to the global transfer of the technologies powering U.S. AI development, including advanced chipsets. And we’re already seeing results of that policy in a recent deal the president signed with the UAE that would work toward the transfer of advanced semiconductors. How should AI diffusion fit into the broader global strategy surrounding the AI industry in the United States? And what approach does the Trump administration seem inclined to take?“Paving Over the Playing Field.” House Republicans recently included a provision in a House bill that would have preempted state efforts to legislate on and regulate the AI industry for a decade. Is this sort of federal preemption a prudent step given the broader competitive dynamics with China? Or does it go too far in insulating AI companies and users from accountability for their actions, particularly where they put the public interest and safety at risk?“Speechless.” A federal district court in Florida has issued a notable opinion of first impression in a tragic case involving a teenager who committed suicide, allegedly as a result of encouragement from an AI bot powered by the company character.ai. Among other holdings, the judge concluded that the AI’s output was not itself protected speech. Is this holding correct? And what impact will it have on the development of the AI industry?In Object Lessons, the AI Guys went surprisingly analog. Alan recommended some good, ol’ fashioned, 19th-century imperial espionage with “The Great Game,” by Peter Hopkirk. Kevin, meanwhile, is keeping an eye on a different kind of game: the NCAA Division I Baseball Championship, in which he’s throwing up some Hook 'em Horns for Texas. And Scott is trying to “Economize” his time with The Economist’s Espresso app, a quick, curated read that fits neatly into a busy morning.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.The “Bridle and Groomed” Edition
01:13:35|This week, Scott sat down with a particularly baritone cast of Lawfare colleagues—co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes, Foreign Policy Editor Dana Stuster, and Senior Editor (aka Legal Correspondent) Roger Parloff—to discuss the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“Let’s Sheikh On It.” President Trump completed a surprisingly historic trip to the Persian Gulf last week, which began with the type of fanfare that Trump loves and only Saudi Arabia can provide and ended with the controversial gift of a new Air Force One from Qatar at the president’s reported request. In between, however, Trump reiterated his calls for an end to the Gaza conflict, became directly involved in negotiating the release of the last living American-Israeli hostage from Hamas, and announced a dramatic about-face in U.S. sanctions policy toward the new regime in Syria that caught even his closest advisers by surprise—all measures that are unlikely to be greeted warmly by the man who has traditionally been Trump’s closest regional ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. How big a pivot point was Trump’s trip? And what could its implications be for U.S. policy towards the region?“Not Retiring from a Fight.” The Supreme Court issued an unprecedented third opinion off its emergency docket this past week in the inaptly named A.A.R.P. v. Trump, part of the ongoing litigation over the Trump administration’s controversial efforts to remove Venezuelan nationals under the Alien Enemies Act. In a 7-2 ruling, the Court held that the summary notice and opportunity to challenge that U.S. officials had provided to some individuals prior to their removal was inadequate. But as litigation through the lower courts continues, what impact is this holding likely to have on the administration’s broader immigration policies?“Shell Shocked.” Former FBI Director James Comey found himself at the center of an unlikely controversy this week, when his decision to relay a photo of shells arranged to form the numbers “8647” that he reportedly found on the beach was interpreted as a death threat against President Trump, triggering a Secret Service interview and potentially more legal consequences to come. How seriously should this incident be taken? And what does it tell us about the Trump administration’s use of prosecutorial discretion?In Object Lessons, as white smoke rose over the Vatican, Roger also turned his gaze heavenward—diving into Benjamin Blech and Roy Doliner’s “The Sistine Secrets” to uncover the subtexts Michelangelo left behind. Inspired by the same papal events, Scott turned to Conclave for a peek inside the process. Ben planted seeds of solidarity and resilience (or was that resistance?) across from the Russian embassy. And Dana’s incoming students at Franklin and Marshall College are about to share in his appreciation for Osamu Dazai’s “The Setting Sun.”To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.The “Doodle Ordinance” Edition
01:17:14|This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Natalie Orpett, Tyler McBrien, and Daniel Byman to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Borderline Behavior.” A major flare-up over the disputed region of Kashmir took place this past week, leading to a major exchange of hostilities between the nuclear powers of India and Pakistan before they agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire—one that is mostly holding, despite alleged violations on both sides. How durable a resolution does this seem likely to be? And what additional steps need to be taken to preserve peace?“Parting Ways.” President Trump announced a major change to U.S. policies in the Red Sea this week, in the form of a ceasefire with the Yemeni armed group and de facto government Ansar Allah (also known as the Houthis), in which they would cease attacks on U.S. shipping. But the credibility of this commitment is in doubt, as are the implications of U.S. actions for shipping through the Red Sea more broadly. What should we make of this major policy shift? “First Class Problems.” President Trump announced this week that he would be accepting the gift of a luxury jet from the government of Qatar for use as Air Force One during his presidency, which would then be transferred to his foundation shortly before he leaves office in 2029. How big a problem is this? And how can he accept this gift, given that the Constitution’s Foreign Emoluments Clause prohibits “accept[ing]...any present…of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State”?In Object Lessons, Tyler delighted in the Financial Times’s trolling of its own “Lunch with the FT,” in which Sam Altman’s kitchen and gross misuse of olive oil becomes a bizarre metaphor for OpenAI. Natalie delighted in some hometown, Pope-town pride (and some Lou Malnati's pizza). Scott delighted in discovering both Dolcezza and their affogato with decaf espresso, a dessert for those who crave flavor and excitement but who also like sleep. And Dan, in utterly failing his wife, delighted in reaping the benefits of her Mother’s Day gift: a little contraption that sits somewhere between wellness hack and medieval torture rack.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.The “Shaving Face” Edition
01:06:35|This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin “The Beard” Wittes and Anastasiia (and Ava) Lapatina to discuss the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“A Waltz on Thin Ice.” Weeks after the SignalGate controversy, Mike Waltz is out as National Security Adviser and set to be nominated as U.N. Ambassador. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, is in for a record fourth high-ranking appointment, though rumors are circulating about just how long he may remain in the position. How big a deal is this switch in leadership? What might its broader implications be?“Resource Extraction.” After months of negotiations, Ukraine and the Trump administration have finally signed a minerals agreement that gives the United States (and, perhaps more importantly, President Trump) a financial stake in Ukraine’s ongoing independence. Is the deal just exploiting Ukraine’s vulnerability? Or is there a chance it might contribute to a better outcome for the beleaguered country?“Liquid Assets.” Russia has gotten its liquefied natural gas (or LNG) facility off the ground in the Arctic and is getting ready to export through a shadowfleet of unregistered vessels to eager buyers in China who are undeterred by Western sanctions. What does the situation tell us about the effectiveness of sanctions? And what is Russia up to in the Arctic?In Object Lessons, Ben logrolled Lawfare’s accidentally-on-purpose, Fridays-at-4pm YouTube show, Lawfare Live (like, Like and Subscribe to our channel!). Scott’s getting ready for grilled pizza season and shared tips for how to handle the heat. And turning the temperature down a notch, Nastya recommended Minna Ålander’s substack, Northern Flank Notes, for more uutiset on the Nordic-Baltic-Arctic region.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.The “Keeping It 100” Edition
01:12:48|This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds and James Pearce to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Rounding the ‘Feels Like It’s Been a Century’ Mark.” As President Trump comes to the end of his second first 100 days in office, he and his supporters are laying claim to FDR’s mantle as the president to accomplish the most in such a short period of time. But how much success has Trump really had in enacting his broader policy agenda? How should we be seeing Trump’s administration as it rounds this milestone?“The Art of the Appeal.” More than three months into his second term in the White House, President Trump has clearly embraced a new legal strategy: antagonistic towards the courts, aggressive in its claims of presidential power, and more than willing to run to the Supreme Court for validation. But so far that validation has been slow to come, and there are signs that even some judges appointed by Trump are growing weary and wary of his tactics. How successful is Trump’s legal strategy proving? Could an alternative be more effective?“DOGE-ing a Bullet.” A new report from the minority staff of the Senate’s permanent subcommittee on investigations claims that Elon Musk’s involvement in the Trump administration and his role in dismantling federal agencies could save his various companies billions in regulatory costs and other potential liabilities. Is this a clear conflict of interest? Or does this report reflect other factors in play?In object lessons, Molly had a mighty craic in happening upon Blue Lights, a police procedural set in Belfast, and urges you to give it a lash. Scott, hailing victory and fighting for Old DC, cheered the thought of a new RFK Stadium. And James encouraged listeners to maki their way over to a local Japanese restaurant, where the sushi isn’t the only thing rolled.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.“The More You DOGE” Edition
01:22:19|This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower, Tyler McBrien, and Kevin Frazier to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Aliens vs. Predators.” Despite forceful legal pushback—including by the U.S. Supreme Court—the Trump administration is working hard to continue its campaign to remove foreign aliens it accuses of pursuing a “predatory incursion” from the country using the Alien Enemies Act. How far will it go? And to what extent can the courts (or anyone else) stop them?“Aye Aye Robot.” Both the Biden and Trump administrations were fans of artificial intelligence (AI) and set out policies to incorporate it into government decision-making. But while the Biden administration focused much of its efforts on guardrails, the Trump administration has increasingly torn them down as part of a broader push to incorporate the nascent technology into government decision-making. What are the risks and potential benefits of this sort of government by AI? “For Pete’s Sake.” Beleaguered Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is more beleaguered than ever this week, after reports that, in addition to inadvertently sharing classified secrets with Atlantic reporter Jeffrey Goldberg, he also passed them to his wife, brother, and personal lawyer on another Signal thread. Meanwhile, a former adviser (and established Trump loyalist) went public with allegations that Hegseth’s management has led to chaos at the Defense Department and called for his resignation. Will this be enough for the Trump administration to cut bait and run? Or does his support in the MAGAsphere simply run too deep?In object lessons, Tyler, fresh from biking adventures abroad, hyped the routes, photos, and resources on bikepacking.com, if physical exertion is your idea of relaxation. Anna, finding other ways to relax, came to the defense of The Big Short in helping to soothe her anxiety amid more current market upheaval. Doubling down on the “no relaxation without tension” theme, Scott’s outie binge-watched Severance while on vacation. And Kevin, very on-brand, was quick to bring us a feel-good story of a new community partnership to support AI skill-building in Austin-based nonprofits. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.