Rational Security

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Public Service Fellow Ari Tabatabai and Managing Editor Tyler McBrien to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including:“Great APEC-tations.” President Trump is headed to Asia this week, both for a meeting of the regional Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) organization and a one-on-one sit down with Chinese president Xi Jinping. It’s a moment destined to spotlight one of the more quixotic areas of the second Trump administration’s foreign policy, only complicated further by his (and China’s) increasingly aggressive trade maneuvers, particularly around rare earth minerals. What should we expect this week? And what does it tell us about the Trump administration’s Asia policy?“Pirates of the Caribbean.” The U.S. military build-up in the Caribbean has continued apace, even as the Trump administration has expanded its controversial military campaign against narcotics traffickers into the eastern Pacific. Even as both sets of actions have put pressure on the Maduro regime, they’ve also created rifts within Trump’s coalition—where a few legislators have begun to join Democrats in demanding more answers from the Trump administration—and the executive branch, where tensions appear to have contributed to the early retirement of the military commander in charge of the operation. What constraints are there on how far the president can go in this space? And how far will he push them?“Too Calm After the Storm.” Hurricane Melissa, one of the strongest on record, made landfall in Jamaica yesterday, and is now hovering over Cuba (in weakened form) on its way to the Bahamas. The devastation it is expected to have left in its wake would in the past have been the subject of an almost immediate U.S. assistance response—but it’s not clear what will be forthcoming today or how effective it will be given the dismantling of U.S. foreign assistance agencies. How should we expect the Trump administration to respond? And what could the long term consequences be?In object lessons, Tyler is sampling Baauer’s Sample Breakdowns on Instagram for the muses behind the music. Scott is musing about the various uses of his vacuum sealer, particularly for his garden bounty. And Ari is singing the praises of the versatility of black sesame.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Senior Fellow Eric Columbus, Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina, and Public Service Fellow Loren Voss to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including:“Visiting Concessions.” President Trump once again turned his focus to the conflict in Ukraine, announcing last week that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin would be meeting to discuss the conflict in Budapest—though it’s not clear Putin has agreed. This occurred just days before a planned visit to the White House by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, where Trump reportedly pressured him to make territorial concessions requested by Putin in exchange for an end to the conflict and failed to respond affirmatively to his requests for Tomahawk missiles and U.S. security commitments. Is this a real shift in the U.S. position? And what might it mean for the broader conflict?“Posse ComiSCOTUS.” After months of litigation in the lower courts, the Trump administration has finally gone to the Supreme Court regarding the legality of its domestic military deployments, seeking a stay on an injunction on its planned deployment to Chicago that was recently left in place by the Seventh Circuit. How big a decision point is this in terms of the legal authorities around domestic military deployments? And how does the Court seem poised to rule?“Material Contort.” Just weeks after designating ANTIFA a “domestic terrorism organization,” the Trump administration has brought its first set of related criminal charges, relating to a July event at a Texas immigration detention facility that left one police officer shot in the neck. The indictment includes charges under the material support for terrorism statute—but probably not the one you’re thinking of. How much does the indictment stretch the usual use of these statutes? And what does it tell us about the Trump administration’s anti-ANTIFA campaign?In object lessons, Loren thinks we should play more and recommends Wayside Farm for a pumpkin-picking, maize-mazing good time. Eric thinks we should get cozy more with a second-skin, chambray-shirt classic. Scott thinks we should reflect more with a majorly-meditative, lightlessly-enlightening retreat. And Nastya thinks we should read more with eloquent-essayist Zadie Smith’s cultural commentary, “Feel Free.” To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Kate Klonick, and newly-minted Senior Editor Molly Roberts to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“Peace by Piece.” The first phase of the Trump administration’s peace plan for Gaza went into effect on Monday, resulting in the return of the last living hostages held by Hamas to Israel, among other exchanges. President Trump celebrated the moment with a triumphal speech in front of the Israeli Knesset, followed by a peace conference at Sharm el-Sheikh where the United States signed a joint statement with the heads of state of Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. While much work remains to be done on implementing the deal, even Trump’s Democratic political rivals have lauded the deal. How much credit does the Trump administration truly deserve? And where is the conflict likely to head from here?“Un-Civil Service.” Since the U.S. government shut down at the end of September, U.S. agency websites and emails have been plastered with messages unequivocally blaming congressional Democrats and the “radical Left.” It’s an unprecedented use of government resources for a set of messages that looks quite political—exactly what the Hatch Act, among other laws, was intended to prevent. Are these messages consistent with the law? “Out of Our Element.” China kicked off a major new phase in its economic war with the United States last week, when it imposed major new export controls and rare earth metals and components derived from them—materials essential to various high-end technologies, including the semiconductors that power artificial intelligence. President Trump has since responded with a threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports—but what China may really want is a relaxation of export controls on AI-related semiconductors. How big a threat is China’s weaponization of its rare earth exports? And how should the United States and its allies respond?In object lessons, Ben shares his new campaign to troll the Russian embassy—an offensive involving 100 dead sunflowers. Kate has an existential crisis over her (old? new? what is time?) college sweatshirt. Scott gets spicy with a plea to listeners about what to do with his abundance of Bhut Jolokia peppers. And Molly brings a bit of beauty to the party with a Prinsesstårta, no doubt something she’ll be asked to make for the office.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Managing Editor Tyler McBrien, Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman, and Public Service Fellow Loren Voss to talk through (somehow only three of) the week’s big national security news stories, including:“The Dream of the ‘90s is Alive in Portland.” This past week, the Trump administration made good on its threats to pursue further domestic military deployments, this time to Portland and Chicago. Thus far, the administration has stuck to the same model it pursued in Los Angeles, using troops to bolster federal immigration enforcement efforts. But President Trump has threatened to go further if his efforts are resisted, including by invoking the Insurrection Act—something that hasn’t happened since 1992. How seriously should we take this threat? And where is it likely to lead?“Strip Poker.” President Trump and his senior advisers have been engaged in serious shuttle diplomacy for the past several weeks, seeming intent on reaching some sort of peace deal in the beleaguered Gaza Strip. And while it’s required him to play every card in his hand—including by bullying both Israel and Hamas into signing on—President Trump appears to be on the verge of a breakthrough. How remarkable an accomplishment is this? And what will it mean for the trajectory of the conflict?“The Maduro Doctrine.” Media reports suggest that several senior Trump administration officials are intent on removing Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro from power, and that the build-up of U.S. military forces in the region—as well as the lethal targeting of alleged Venezuela-affiliated narcotics traffickers in recent weeks—is just a prelude to a bigger effort at regime change. How likely is it that the Trump administration will take such a step? And what could it mean for the region?In object lessons, everyone’s taking a break—sort of. Dan’s “break” involves playing The British Way, a strategy game designed by his colleague Stephen Rangazas that even non–political scientists will enjoy. Tyler’s actually taking a break and heading back to high school with English Teacher on FX. Scott’s taking a break from originality by recycling not one but two object lessons: a reminder to catch Katie Pruitt at Union Stage on 10/14 (seriously, go), and—if you’re not in D.C.—Alan’s once-in-a-blue-moon good advice to watch Slow Horses on Apple TV+. And Loren is taking a break from her vices and cleaning up her act with dirty soda.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his colleagues Alan Rozenshtein and Anna Bower to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“A Higher Loyalty.” The Justice Department appeared to bow to the demands of President Trump last week when, over the reported objections of several senior officials, it successfully sought the indictment of former FBI Director James Comey for allegedly false statements he made to Congress. But the prosecution is raising a lot of questions among legal experts about the procedures, the substance, and what exactly its odds are for success moving forward. What should we make of this move by the Justice Department? What does this tell us about the prospects for weaponization moving forward?“A Right to Bare Faces.” California has enacted a new law that, among other measures, will require law enforcement officers of all stripes to limit their use of face masks. But legal experts are torn on whether this policy can constitutionally apply to its clear target: the ICE personnel and other federal law enforcement officers who have started wearing masks for even routine law enforcement activities. How likely is the new law to achieve its goals?“Legal Code.” California has passed a first of its kind AI safety law, with the support (or at least acquiescence) of industry leaders. Does this point a way forward for AI safety legislation? And how will it make us safer?In object lessons, the AI overlords completely take over. Alan is vibe coding his way to paying for his kids’ college tuition. Scott’s AI alter ego is making easier work of docket watching with NotebookLM. And even Anna, in search of Jimmy Kimmel jokes, gets a little AI anecdote in through her recent tour of NYC comedy clubs.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with Senior Editors Kate Klonick and Eric Columbus to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including: “An Un-Airing of Grievances.” Since the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, some supporters of his—including several figures within the Trump administration—have actively sought to have individuals who have said critical or purportedly insensitive things about Kirk removed from their jobs or otherwise punished. This arguably came to a head after Jimmy Kimmel Live! was pulled from the air following statements by FCC Chairman Brendan Carr suggesting networks might face additional regulatory scrutiny for not addressing alleged misinformation about Kirk’s killer he purportedly put forward. And while Kimmel is now back on the air, several major local affiliates are refusing to air his show. How do these efforts comport with the First Amendment? And what do they mean for freedom of speech regardless?“You Can’t Spell Appeasement Without App.” After months of negotiations—during which it has held off on enforcing a statutorily mandated ban—the Trump administration has announced that it has reached a deal with China regarding the disposition of the social media platform TikTok and its operation in the United States. But the public details of the deal have been few and far between, and much more remains to be worked out. How close to a deal are the parties in actuality? And does it address the national security concerns motivating Congress’s ban in the first place?“Playing with White House Money.” The Trump administration has been rocked by two major corruption-related stories in the past week. First, the Justice Department is reported to have closed an investigation into White House immigration czar Tom Homan, who reportedly accepted $50,000 from undercover FBI agents prior to joining the administration on the understanding that he would help the donors gain access to the incoming Trump administration. And second, new details suggest that the recent deal to permit chip sales to the UAE were tied up in a variety of major cryptocurrency deals that enriched both the Trump Organization and others in the Trump administration—only the latest in a long history of suspect cryptocurrency transactions by Trump-related businesses. How big a problem are these transactions? And what do they tell us about the state of corruption on the second Trump administration?In object lessons, Eric marked the Jewish New Year with a novel recommendation: “To Rise Again at a Decent Hour,” by Joshua Ferris, a midlife-crisis tale woven through Judaism, baseball, and dentistry—two subjects close to his heart, and one that isn’t. Scott, meanwhile, is back on the D.C. concert circuit and wants you to join him at Union Stage on October 14 to see Katie Pruitt, whose rock-infused Americana sound he thinks deserves a bigger audience. Kate rounded things out with a little blue hippo—specifically the souvenir version of the famous Egyptian figurine better known as “William,” a reminder of a past mother-daughter trip to Paris that involved butchering French while scouring the Louvre.

For this week's very special episode on Rational Security's 10th anniversary, Scott sat down with a slew of co-hosts emeritus, each of whom brought their own topic to discuss.Shane Harris flagged the connections between online radicalization and the young men behind many recent public acts of gun violence, including the alleged perpetrator of the Charlie Kirk killing;Benjamin Wittes insisted we are STILL not talking enough about Russian drone incursions and other forms of gray zone warfare in Eastern Europe;Quinta Jurecic brought some statistics about the success (or not) of the Trump administration's federalization of law enforcement in D.C. (and elsewhere) that are worth contemplating; andAlan Rozenshtein asked how it can still be true that no one but him seems to care about the Trump administration blatantly disregarding the TikTok ban.In object lessons, Shane is basking in the glory of HBO’s “Somebody Somewhere”—partly because his buddy Jeff Hiller just won an Emmy for his role in it. Ben praises Adam Boehler—and even Donald Trump—for helping secure Elizabeth Tsurkov’s release. Alan is definitely not using this opportunity to use Pacific Rim for his object lesson—really—instead recommending fantasy mystery “The Tainted Cup,” by Robert Jackson Bennett. Scott takes us into orbit with Samantha Harvey’s “Orbital,” a lyrical meditation on life and reflection in space. And Quinta dives into the future with “Empire of AI,” by Karen Hao, a deeply reported look at OpenAI and its role in shaping the technology’s trajectoryLast call to help us celebrate Lawfare’s 15th anniversary! Get your tickets now to join us this Friday, 9/19, to hear from some of your favorite Lawfare people past and present, take a look back on the key moments that have shaped our first 15 years, and get a sneak peek into what’s coming next.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes and Natalie Orpett, and Professor of Law at Cardozo Law School Rebecca Ingber, to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Uninvited Aerial Vehicles.” The Polish government is claiming that nineteen armed Russian UAVs penetrated its airspace last night. While Russians are suggesting no attack was intended, Poland has invoked Article IV of the NATO Treaty and worked with allied NATO aircraft to shoot the drones down. What might be happening here? And does it mean we’re on our way to World War III as some are suggesting?“Bibi is a Killer Negotiator. No, Wait—Switch That.” Within days of the Trump administration tabling another ceasefire proposal—and, by some accounts, making progress in pressuring Hamas to accept it—Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu authorized a set of missile strikes that killed the leaders of Hamas’s political wing in nearby Qatar. It’s the first such move in a Gulf country, many of which have moved towards normalization with Israel through the Trump-backed Abraham Accords. What explains Israel’s actions? And what do they portend for the conflict in Gaza and the region as a whole?“Cruise Control.” A week has passed since the Trump administration took the controversial step of targeting a boat alleged to be smuggling narcotics at the direction of the Venezuelan criminal organization Tren de Aragua with lethal force. The Trump administration hasn’t repeated the move, but it’s said it intends to. And U.S. military assets—including strategic assets whose use in a counter-narcotics military campaign is far from clear—have continued to build up in the region, leading some to believe that a broader campaign against Venezuela itself may yet be in the offing. How likely is a broader campaign? And could its implications be, legally and politically? In Object Lessons, Ben is cheering on a cadre of former FBI agents suing Kash Patel over their firings, and in the process, sings the praises of an accidental hero—the “Drizz.” Natalie, meanwhile, gets très littéraire with “The Elegance of the Hedgehog,” by Muriel Barbery—a book so French that almost nothing happens. Scott rang in his 8th wedding anniversary the traditional way: getting drunk in the basement and falling in love all over again—with The Paper. And Bec wonders just how much coin it’s going to take to change the Department of Defense to the Department of War.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower, Tyler McBrien, and Peter Harrell to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“Faginomics.” With the recent announcement that the U.S. government would be taking a 10% stake in the company Intel, the Trump administration has ushered in a new era of state-guided industrial policy, fueled by concerns of major power competition, particularly around the race to AI. How does this new policy intersect with its other novel economic priorities, such as the imposition of tariffs? And how legally viable is it, given present (and potentially future) legal challenges?“Ménage à Trois.” On the margins of the recent meeting of the China- and Russia-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a point of warmly (and very publicly) embracing Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping—a move many have taken as a clear shot across the bow at the Trump administration, which has been in heated economic negotiations with India over tariffs and trade relations. What does this exchange say about the Trump administration’s handling of the U.S. relationship with India—and other key U.S. relationships?“Midnight Planes Going Nowhere.” In an emergency hearing over the holiday weekend, federal judge Sparkle Sooknanan stopped the Trump administration from deporting hundreds of unaccompanied Guatemalan minor migrants to their home country—a move that the government of Guatemala has now claimed that it invited. What should we make of this move by the Trump administration? And how does it fit within its broader immigration crackdown?In object lessons, Tyler biked to City Island, NY, discovering a charming little enclave with great food, shops, and beaches. Sticking with the New York theme, Anna recommends “John Proctor is the Villain,” a play by a writer from her Georgia hometown that’s so good it’s making women cry. Scott, meanwhile, left New York behind to live his best Neapolitan life with a new backyard pizza oven that can achieve the appropriate temp for a puffy crust. And Peter’s been reading “When the Clock Broke,” a reminder that the 1990s may have been the dress rehearsal for our current political dumpster fire, all the while keeping an eye on challenges to Trump v. Casa.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.