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Rational Security

The “I’m Ok Without Friends” Edition

We’re going to stalk our former Rational Security hosts. We’ll talk about this feed and what we should do with it. And, we’ll chew over how the first hearing of the Jan. 6 commission went. Sort of.

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  • A Terrorism Briefing from a Goldendoodle

    01:08:52
    This week, Alan and Quinta were joined again by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman—also of Georgetown University and the Center for Strategic and International Studies— to talk over the week’s national security news, including:“Terror in Moscow.” On Friday, March 22, a group of gunmen unleashed an attack on a concert hall outside Moscow that killed over 130 people, shooting into a crowd of concertgoers before setting the hall on fire. The Islamic State in Khorasan, the Afghanistan branch of ISIS known as ISIS-K, quickly claimed credit for the attack, and Russian authorities have arrested four suspects. The Kremlin, without evidence, has also continued to hint that Ukraine is somehow responsible. What does the attack tell us about ISIS-K, and what does it mean for the Russian government?“April, Come She Will.” After a brief delay, Donald Trump’s hush money trial in Manhattan has been scheduled to begin on April 15—the first of Trump’s criminal cases to go to trial. Meanwhile, a New York appeals court threw Trump a lifeline, reducing his appeal bond in the civil fraud case against him from half a billion dollars to $175 million. Will ol’ Donny Trump be able to wriggle out of this jam once again?“Come On, Aileen.” Judge Aileen Cannon is at it again down in Fort Pierce, Florida. As she presides over Trump’s classified documents case, motions are piling up on her desk without any sign of a ruling, and she issued a strange, convoluted order instructing both parties to “engage with” potential jury instructions reflecting unusual readings of the Presidential Records Act in relation to the Espionage Act. Just what is Judge Cannon doing? And how, if at all, can Jack Smith respond? For object lessons, Alan endorsed the podcast “Next Year in Moscow,” on Russians living in exile who departed their country after the beginning of Putin’s war with Ukraine. Tyler sang the praises of Waxahatchee’s new album “Tigers Blood.” And Quinta recommended a reflection on Baltimore’s collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge.
  • The “Tyler’s Grandma’s Matzah Ball Soup” Edition

    01:06:04
    This week, Alan and Quinta were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Lawfare Legal Fellow and Courts Correspondent Anna Bower to talk through the week's big national security news, including:“No v. Wade.” The long saga of the personal relationship between Fani Willis, the Fulton County District Attorney prosecuting Donald Trump for election interference, and Nathan Wade, the prosecutor Willis put in charge of the case, hit an inflection point when Judge Scott McAfee, who is overseeing the criminal case, ruled that, though there was no actual conflict of interest, “the appearance of impropriety remains,” and ordered Willis to either recuse herself from the case or to remove Wade from his role as prosecutor. Wade promptly resigned, clearing the way for the case to continue. Is this the right resolution to the controversy, and what does it say about the future of the Fulton County case, especially if Trump appeals and tries to force Willis’s disqualification?“Pleading the Fifth…Circuit.” In a sign that even the conservative Justices of the Supreme Court may be losing patience with the Fifth Circuit, Missouri received a chilly reception in oral argument on Monday when it tried to defend a circuit opinion preventing the government from virtually any communication with social media companies about removing misinformation and harmful content. How is the Supreme Court likely to rule and what should the rule be when it comes to concerns around government “jawboning.”“Psy-Oops.” Reuters has reported that, during the Trump administration, the CIA engaged in an influence operation on Chinese social media to spread negative information about Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders. Was it effective, was it a good idea, and what should U.S. intelligence priorities be with regard to China?For object lessons, Quinta shared a wild story about a pro-Trump lawyer arrested on a bench warrant while in court. Alan recommended a new Guy Ritchie show. And Tyler shared Quinta's brilliant visual aid to understanding Trump's litigation delay tactics.
  • The “Sociopathic Nose Wrinkle” Edition

    01:16:15
    This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott got together for the last time before Scott’s paternity leave to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“Kitchen Table Issues.” President Biden delivered a feisty State of the Union last week, one that took aim at both those worrying about his age and his apparent 2024 rival, former President Donald Trump. But what does his handling of key national security issues, ranging from Ukraine to Gaza, tell us about where the country is headed, and what can we gather from the response from the other party?“Tik Tik Tik...” The end may be nigh for TikTok in the United States, at least in its current incarnation. The House has passed a bill that will ban TikTok from app stores beginning in the Fall unless its Chinese owners divest—legislation that President Biden has said he will sign, but that former President Trump recently flipped on. Where is this new major social media platform headed, at least in the United States?“Trying to Stay Alive.” Policymakers are desperately working to clear the domestic legal hurdles in both Kenya and the United States for an ad hoc peacekeeping mission to Haiti, aimed at stemming the surge of gang violence there. But will the 1,000 Kenyan police officers set to be deployed be enough to restore peace and security to the country?For object lessons, Alan doubled down on WBUH’s podcast “The Big Dig,” a compelling story of sex, lies, and infrastructure (or at least one of the three). Quinta finally saw Oppenheimer and gave it a “meh.” And Scott gave tribute to the glory of his 30s, now that they have left him.
  • The “Alan and the Owl” Edition

    01:15:16
    This week, Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien joined Alan, Quinta, and Scott to discuss the week's big national security news, including:“Operation Humbled Drop.” After months of unsuccessfully pushing the Israeli government to allow more aid into besieged Gaza, the Biden administration has taken matters into its own hands and begun airlifting it in itself. But are its efforts just for show, or a sign that it is abandoning its “bear hug” approach to Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu? And what will it mean for the flow of U.S. assistance to Israel, especially given legal restrictions Israel’s actions arguably violate? “Sound (Legal Reasoning) and Fury(ous Agreement).” This week, the Supreme Court surprised no one by unanimously reversing the Colorado Supreme Court and holding that former President Trump cannot be kept off the 2024 ballot there for having committed insurrection through his involvement in Jan. 6—a move the justices had strongly telegraphed in oral arguments in February. But for a unanimous outcome, the matter did prove surprisingly divisive, with the liberal minority accusing the conservative majority of overreaching to save Trump from possible future disqualification through other avenues. What should we make of the divided opinions in this case? And where does it leave Trump?“Smog of War.” Even as the New York Times finds itself in the midst of an internal (and external) controversy around its coverage of Hamas’s alleged use of sexual assault during the Oct. 7 massacre, the United Nations has released a report lending credibility to the conclusion that sexual assault occurred. How should we parse the competing accounts around this heated and incredibly difficult topic?For object lessons, Alan—much to his surprise—recommended the Formula 1 documentary Formula 1: Drive to Survive. Quinta flagged another Sen. Menendez superseding indictment to add to New Jersey’s state flag. Scott hit both sides of the RatSec listenership with recommendations: one for “Bucking the Buck,” Daniel McDowell’s excellent deep dive into de-dollarization, and another for his parasocial friends on The Ringer NFL Show in its various iterations, who he hopes will give D.C. the regional sports podcast it deserves. And Tyler celebrated the spectacle that is Medieval Times as well as the fact that the serfs there have recently unionized.
  • The “Sir, This is a Wendy’s” Edition

    01:14:25
    This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Molly Reynolds and (a prerecorded) Anna Bower to talk through some of the week’s big national security news, including:“The Shutdown Rut.” Congress once again has the government on the verge of a shutdown. And while Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has reportedly committed to avoiding one, demands from within his caucus may make that hard—just as they continue to obstruct a path forward for the national security supplemental that contains essential assistance for Ukraine. Is there a way forward? Or are we shutdown-bound?“Sex, Lies, and Geolocation.” The criminal case against former President Trump and more than a dozen codefendants in Fulton County, Georgia, remains on hold as defense attorneys continue to dig into the details of Fani Willis’s romantic relationship with subordinate Nathan Wade. Over the last week, we’ve seen filings on geolocation data and the examination of Wade’s former attorney. But does any of this add up to a potentially disqualifying conflict of interest?“If This Segment Were a Newspaper, How Much Would It Weigh?” The Supreme Court heard extended oral arguments over the constitutionality of controversial Florida and Texas laws seeking to regulate content moderation on social media platforms this week. But amid some very interesting lines of questioning—including one inquiring the weight of YouTube if it were a newspaper—it wasn’t clear the Court was really ready and interested in delving into the technical details. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? And where might the Court come out?For object lessons, Quinta answered Justice Alito’s recent inquiry, “If YouTube were a newspaper, how much would it weigh?” Scott sang the praises of Bianco DiNapoli’s fire-roasted tomatoes. And Molly recommended the podcast Short Walk, about one of the stranger state-level political controversies in recent memory.
  • The “Fast and the Furry-us” Edition

    01:15:21
    This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott got together to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“Is Revanchism a Dish Best Served Cold?” Russia boosters seem to be feeling bullish for the first time in a long time. This week, its forces captured the strategic town of Avdiivka from Ukrainian forces, who have been weakened by bickering among their Western allies. And imprisoned Russian dissident Alexei Navalny met with a tragic and highly suspicious end, just as Western governments came together at the Munich Security Conference. Is Russia right to be feeling its oats at this moment?“Bibi Steps.” As Israel prepares to mount a controversial military operation against Rafah—the last refuge for many displaced civilians in Gaza—there are cracks between the government of Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and the Biden administration, who in recent weeks have shown an increased willingness to target settler violence in the West Bank with sanctions, impose some conditionality on U.S. security assistance, and turn to the U.N. Security Council for possible support for a “temporary ceasefire,” even over Israeli objections. Are these signs of a bigger divide to come? And what will the impact be on the trajectory of the Gaza conflict?“Won’t Somebody PLEASE Think of the Children?!” The Kids Online Safety Act (or KOSA) is back in somewhat modified form, promising to introduce new regulations into how our children engage with online platforms—this time with broad bipartisan support, including from the Biden administration. But will it actually help protect children online? Or only put vulnerable communities more at risk?For object lessons, Alan recommended the Oscar-nominated Jeffrey Wright vehicle, American Fiction. Quinta endorsed “The Book of Love,” a spooky fantasy mystery and the debut novel by celebrated short story author Kelly Link. And Scott urged mid-Atlantic listeners to take their toddlers to Baltimore’s National Aquarium and spring for the wonderful family sunrise tour. Or for nature lovers not on the East Coast, check out the new podcast one-off Birds Are Cool, featuring Goat Rodeo’s own Cara Shillenn.
  • The “Licking the Cow” Edition

    01:17:03
    This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were once again joined by co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week's big national security news, including:“Constitutional Annoyance.” Last week, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Trump v. Anderson, the case weighing whether former President Trump’s involvement in Jan. 6 should disqualify him from being able to stand as a candidate in 2024 under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. And the justices, for once, seemed almost unified in their skepticism of the idea that he should be—though there was far less agreement as to why. Where is this case headed? And what will its ultimate impact be on the 2024 election and beyond?“Putting the Hur(t) On.” Special Counsel Robert Hur completed his investigation into President Biden’s alleged mishandling of classified documents last week and, while he opted not to bring any charges, his lengthy final report has caused a stir: not just for laying out Biden’s apparent mishandling of classified documents over an extended period of time but also for citing Biden’s advanced age and apparent memory issues as grounds for not prosecuting—observations that have reignited anxieties regarding Biden’s capacity to stand for reelection. Was Hur out of line or just doing his job in making these observations? And how will his conclusions impact events moving forward, including the prosecution of former President Trump for his own mishandling of classified documents?“‘I Can’t Pay the Rent,’ ‘But You Must Pay the Rent!’” Former President Trump has resumed his role as enforcer over the defense spending level of NATO members, suggesting most recently that he would encourage Russia to do whatever it wants with any members who fail to meet their commitments—comments that have triggered new anxiety over how NATO may fare in a second Trump presidency. How serious are these comments? What should folks be doing in response?For object lessons, Alan recommended the weirdness of Donald Glover's new spy remake, "Mr. & Mrs. Smith." Quinta urged listeners to check out a recent New York Times piece on "How Mark Meadows Became the Least Trusted Man in Washington." Scott mourned the end of football season by endorsing the sportsfan comedy of Annie Agar. And Ben announced that he had completed his quest to identify the worst rhetorical question headline ever.
  • The “Fecund Season” Edition

    01:14:44
    This week, Alan made his long-awaited return to the podcast for a (brief, so savor it) reunion with Quinta and Scott to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“Losing the Immunity Challenge.” Earlier this week, the D.C. Circuit rejected former President Trump’s attempt to appeal the denial of his claims of presidential immunity to criminal charges arising from Jan. 6. That issue is now primed for the Supreme Court. Will it take it up? And what will it decide?“Ordeal or No Deal.” As Israel’s military offensive in Gaza continues, the United States is trying to facilitate a short-term hostage deal—and a longer term bargain that would incorporate Israel and Saudi Arabia into a security pact. How realistic are these proposals? And how might they impact the dynamics of the Gaza conflict?“The Shakedown Breakdown.” Congressional Republicans who once insisted on tying Ukraine assistance to a border deal have now turned against any effort to hash out a border deal—even as House Republicans have also failed to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas or to pass their own stand-alone assistance bill for Israel. Where does this all leave aid for Ukraine? And what ramifications will this congressional dysfunction have moving forward?For object lessons, Alan shared the thing he spent most of his time off on: his new substack, “The Rozy Outlook.” In light of this week’s oral arguments in Trump v. Anderson, Quinta recommended Mark Graber’s book on the 14th Amendment, "Punish Treason, Reward Loyalty." And Scott urged listeners to check out one of his favorite Twitter threads in recent memory, asking “who got that one Jeopardy clip”?
  • The “Meatlovers” Edition

    01:14:40
    This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes to talk over the meaty week of national security news, including: “The Neighborhood is Getting Worse.” Three American service members were killed in a drone attack committed by Iran-backed militias in Jordan this past weekend. The Biden administration has promised a military response, but one of the groups believed to be responsible has just declared a unilateral ceasefire, seemingly at Iran’s urging. How should the United States respond? And what will the regional ramifications be?“Don’t Seek Redress in Texas.” Texas governor Greg Abbott has opted to ignore a federal court ruling demanding that he take down barriers on the Rio Grande, on the basis of a novel (and highly dubious) legal theory asserting that the state has the exclusive constitutional authority to defend itself from invasion by migrants. How should the Biden administration respond?“Provisional Victory?” The International Court of Justice has issued provisional measures in the genocide case against Israel over its Gaza operations, directing it to punish genocidal rhetoric and allow in humanitarian assistance but stopping short of requiring a ceasefire. Is this a vindication of Israel’s actions or a condemnation? And what will it mean for the trajectory of the conflict?For object lessons, Quinta celebrated the chaos of the New Jersey Democratic Senate primary. Scott highlighted the latest new feature at Lawfare: transcripts of its podcasts. And Ben gave Scott a very special gift, with which he is certain to put an eye out.