Share

cover art for Is Polling Broken?

Political Gabfest

Is Polling Broken?

This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss the problems with issue polling and issues with political journalism; the chaos and conflict of Sam Altman and OpenAI; and the failure of the Oslo Accords and perpetual struggle between Israel and Palestine. Send us your Conundrums: submit them at slate.com/conundrum. And join us in-person or online with our special guest – The Late Show’s Steven Colbert – for Gabfest Live: The Conundrums Edition! December 7 at The 92nd Street Y, New York City. Tickets on sale now!

 

Here are some notes and references from this week’s show:

Nate Cohn for The New York Times: The Crisis in Issue Polling, and What We’re Doing About It and We Did an Experiment to See How Much Democracy and Abortion Matter to Voters

Claire Cain Miller and Francesca Paris for The New York Times: The Great Disconnect: Why Voters Feel One Way About the Economy but Act Differently

The Image: A Guide to Pseudo-Events in America by Daniel J. Boorstin

What’s the Matter with Kansas?: How Conservatives Won the Heart of America by Thomas Frank

Eli Saslow for The New York Times: A Jan. 6 Defendant Pleads His Case to the Son Who Turned Him In

Brian Beutler for the Off Message newsletter: The 2024 Election Is About Real Things

Charlie Warzel for The Atlantic: The Money Always Wins and Karen Hao and Charlie Warzel: Inside the Chaos at OpenAI

John Dickerson and Jo Ling Kent for CBS News Prime Time: What Sam Altman’s ouster from OpenAI could mean for the tech world

Pranshu Verman, Nitasha Tiku, and Gerrit De Vynck for The Washington Post: Sam Altman reinstated as OpenAI CEO with new board members 

Louise Matsakis and Reed Albergotti for Semafor: The AI industry turns against its favorite philosophy

Emily Bazelon for The New York Times Magazine: Was Peace Ever Possible? 

Ezra Klein for The New York Times’s The Ezra Klein Show podcast: The Best Primer I’ve Heard on Israeli-Palestinian Peace Efforts

Oslo on HBO

John Dickerson for CBS Mornings: Former President Jimmy Carter: “America will learn from its mistakes”

The Lady Bird Diaries on Hulu

Eleanor Roosevelt in a Coal by Bettman and The George Washington University’s Case Study: Eleanor Roosevelt’s Visit to Coal Mine (1935)

 

Here are this week’s chatters:

John: Julia Simon for NPR: ‘It feels like I’m not crazy.’ Gardeners aren’t surprised as USDA updates key map and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service: USDA Unveils Updated Plant Hardiness Zone Map

Emily: Liran Samuni and Martin Surbeck in Science: Cooperation across social borders in bonobos and The Bonobo Sisterhood: Revolution Through Female Alliance by Diane Rosenfeld 

David: City Cast Executive Producer, Nashville, Executive Producer, Austin, and Events Director, remote and The National WWII Museum: WWII Veteran Statistics 

Listener chatter from Dimitri in Boulder, Colorado: University of Evansville: Library of Congress Recognizes Plagiarized University of Evansville Archaeologist After 90 Years and Jessica Blake for Inside Higher Ed: Female Archaeologist’s Work Receives Overdue Recognition—90 Years Later

 

For this week’s Slate Plus bonus segment, David, John, and Emily talk about the death of former First Lady Rosalynn Carter and her 77-year marriage with Jimmy Carter. See also Rick Rojas for The New York Times: The Carters’ Hometown Mourns for the Love of a Lifetime and Peter Baker: Rosalynn Carter Helped Shape the Role of the Modern First Lady.


In the latest Gabfest Reads, Emily talks with James Sturm about Watership Down: The Graphic Novel. See also James Sturm and Joe Sutphin in The New York Times: In Times of Danger, There’s Strength in Numbers.

 

Email your chatters, questions, and comments to gabfest@slate.com. (Messages may be referenced by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.)

 

Podcast production by Cheyna Roth 

Research by Julie Huygen

Need to set up your Slate Plus feed? If you subscribed through Slate.com, check out our FAQ at slate.com/podcastfaqs for easy instructions. Members subscribed via Apple Podcasts get automatic access—no setup required.

More episodes

View all episodes

  • Gabfest Reads | The Tax Nobody Talks About: Your Time

    33:50|
    David Plotz talks with journalist Annie Lowrey about her new book The Time Tax: How the Government Wastes Our Time—and How to Fix It, an investigation into the hours Americans lose to broken bureaucracy, from 12-hour tax filings to multiyear waits for housing vouchers and building permits. Lowrey traces the waste to what she calls the “ordeal mechanism,” the deliberate friction built into some programs to weed out the “undeserving,” alongside outdated technology like the COBOL code still running state unemployment systems. She and Plotz discuss why the burden falls hardest on poor people and immigrants, why Social Security remains one of the few programs that treats recipients with dignity, and why DOGE did nothing to fix any of it. Tweet us your questions @SlateGabfest or email us at gabfest@slate.com. (Messages could be quoted by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.)Podcast production by Nina Porzucki.
  • Kremlin Wedding Present

    01:03:57|
    This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss whether this week's Supreme Court intervention rejecting Trump's mail-in ballot restrictions will prevent midterm chaos, explore the fast-evolving dynamics of public and political anxieties about AI, and dissect remarkable new reporting from ProPublica exposing the Putin-adjacent Russian oligarch who paid for much of Donald Trump Jr.'s private island wedding.Here are this week’s chatters: Emily: New podcast Examined: The Backfire Effect, by Josie Duffy Rice; Supremacy: How Rule by the Court Replaced Government by the People by Nikolas Bowie and Daphna Renan John: Wild Card with Rachel Martin (NPR): John Dickerson says doubt only helps to solidify his faith; Derek DelGaudio's In & Of Itself (Trailer on YouTube) (Streaming on Hulu); Linda Holmes for NPR: 'In & Of Itself' Is A Study Of Identity And Magic; AMORALMAN: A True Story and Other Lies by Derek DelGaudio David: Colin from Accounts on Paramount Plus; Daniel Wu for The Washington Post: Pollution spikes after Trump halted global air-monitoring efforts, report says Listener chatter from Julian Ozen in Brooklyn, NY: Ordinary Abundance For this week’s Slate Plus bonus episode, Emily, John, and David discuss what California Gov. Gavin Newsom told Jake Tapper about running for president in 2028. They discuss the signaling work of the fly-fishing tableau, what Newsom is really saying about Harris, and whether there's an appetite in the Democratic party for either of them to run. In the latest Gabfest Reads, David Plotz talks with John Lanchester about his new novel, Look What You Made Me Do, a darkly funny psychological thriller about two couples in modern-day London whose lives collide in a story of infidelity, obsession, and revenge. The book explores the performance of niceness, class, intergenerational frictions and how technology makes vengeance not just possible but almost exceedingly easy in the modern age. Email your chatters, questions, and comments to gabfest@slate.com. (Messages may be referenced by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.) Podcast production by Nina Porzucki Research by Emily DittoYou can find the full Political Gabfest show pages here. Want more Political Gabfest? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you’ll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Political Gabfest show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or visit slate.com/gabfestplus to get access wherever you listen. Find out more about David Plotz's monthly tours of Ft. DeRussy, the secret Civil War fort hidden in Rock Creek Park.   Follow@SlateGabfest on X / https://twitter.com/SlateGabfestSlate Political Gabfest on Facebook / https://www.facebook.com/Gabfest/
  • Pretend I'm on the Ballot

    01:03:12|
    This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss why Republicans are holding an unusual midterm convention and what it says about the state of the race at the homestretch, talk about the new book Profiles in Cowardice: A Study of Collaboration in the Trump Era with author Jacob Weisberg, and reflect on memories and historical consequences on the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 terror attack. Here are this week’s chatters: Emily: Hansi Lo Wang for NPR: Trump officials propose sweeping changes to the census that would reshape voting maps; Data Are Made, Not Found: A Story of Politics, Power, and the Civil Servants Who Saved the US Census by danah boyd; Charity and Sylvia by Tillie Walden John: Associated Press: US Attorney confirms no meth was found in van of Texas man shot by immigration officers; Kristen Wong for Sports Illustrated: At His Highest Moment, Frances Tiafoe Rose Even Higher. His Viral U.S. Open Hug Is Why We Love Sports. David: Colossus: The Forbin Project (1970) - Official Trailer (HD) (2:56 long on YouTube) Listener chatter from Adam Forkner in Boston, Massachusetts: Dave Epstein for The Boston Globe: What my Maine dock taught me about the threat of invasive marine life looming in the Persian Gulf; Tamburri, M.N., Carlton, J.T., Blakeslee, A.M.H. et al. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz may trigger a bioinvasion super-spreader event. Biol Invasions 28, 177 (2026). For this week’s Slate Plus bonus episode, Emily, John, and David discuss this week's big AI story, a researcher's resignation from Anthropic and his dire warnings about AI's imminent dangers to humanity, with guest Nathan Calvin, general counsel at Encode. They discuss the exponential pace of AI development, what the big companies are or are not doing to protect humans from apocalypse, and the simultaneous governmental and industry cooperation that could help manage risks. In the latest Gabfest Reads, David Plotz talks with John Lanchester about his new novel, Look What You Made Me Do, a darkly funny psychological thriller about two couples in modern-day London whose lives collide in a story of infidelity, obsession, and revenge. The book explores the performance of niceness, class, intergenerational frictions and how technology makes vengeance not just possible but almost exceedingly easy in the modern age. Email your chatters, questions, and comments to gabfest@slate.com. (Messages may be referenced by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.)Podcast production by Nina Porzucki Research by Emily DittoYou can find the full Political Gabfest show pages here. Want more Political Gabfest? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you’ll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Political Gabfest show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or visit slate.com/gabfestplus to get access wherever you listen. Find out more about David Plotz's monthly tours of Ft. DeRussy, the secret Civil War fort hidden in Rock Creek Park.   Follow@SlateGabfest on X / https://twitter.com/SlateGabfestSlate Political Gabfest on Facebook / https://www.facebook.com/Gabfest/
  • What Is the Bond Market, Anyway?

    01:05:37|
    This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss how a narrow Supreme Court majority used aesthetic standing to greenlight Trump's ballroom construction, why bond yields are rising around the world and how that impacts everyone with guest Jason Furman, and how the extradition showdown between Texas and Minnesota over an ICE officer involved in a shooting betrays fraying relations among the states.Here are this week’s chatters: Emily: Does Cutting Flower Stems Underwater Really Help?; Rachel Feltman for The Washington Post: How to keep fresh cut flowers from dying (with science) John: Crime and Punishment by Fyodor Dostoevsky; Line of Duty on Rotten Tomatoes; The Economist: What Democrats—and Republicans—can learn from Raphael Warnock; Lia Picard for Huffpost: The Hidden Health Benefits Of Eating Leftovers For Breakfast David: Simon Ducroquet and John Ismay for The New York Times: The Logistics Nightmare Facing U.S. Warships; The Last Ship on Netflix Listener chatter from Daniela Koontz in Houston, Texas: Anthropeum For this week’s Slate Plus bonus episode, Emily, John, and David discuss Army secretary Dan Driscoll's resignation as the latest high-level Army official to run afoul of Pete Hegseth, whether Hegseth is capable of leading the military through a moment of real strain, and the increasing leaks from inside the Pentagon. In the latest Gabfest Reads, David Plotz talks with John Lanchester about his new novel, Look What You Made Me Do, a darkly funny psychological thriller about two couples in modern-day London whose lives collide in a story of infidelity, obsession, and revenge. The book explores the performance of niceness, class, intergenerational frictions and how technology makes vengeance not just possible but almost exceedingly easy in the modern age. Email your chatters, questions, and comments to gabfest@slate.com. (Messages may be referenced by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.) Podcast production by Nina Porzucki Research by Emily DittoYou can find the full Political Gabfest show pages here. Want more Political Gabfest? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you’ll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Political Gabfest show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or visit slate.com/gabfestplus to get access wherever you listen. Find out more about David Plotz's monthly tours of Ft. DeRussy, the secret Civil War fort hidden in Rock Creek Park.   Follow@SlateGabfest on X / https://twitter.com/SlateGabfestSlate Political Gabfest on Facebook / https://www.facebook.com/Gabfest/
  • Please Do Not Ruin the Post Office

    01:06:37|
    This week, John Dickerson, David Plotz, and guest host Juliette Kayyem discuss this week's Supreme Court ruling allowing the Trump administration to move forward for now with his order restricting mail-in voting, the likely effects of trade wars with Canada and Iran, and what we humans can do about safety as A.I. models rapidly get more sophisticated and autonomous.For this week’s Slate Plus bonus episode, John, David, and guest host Juliette Kayyem discuss the newest drama enveloping semi-royals Prince Harry and Meghan after they announced an impending move back to the UK. In the latest Gabfest Reads, David Plotz talks with John Lanchester about his new novel, Look What You Made Me Do, a darkly funny psychological thriller about two couples in modern-day London whose lives collide in a story of infidelity, obsession, and revenge. The book explores the performance of niceness, class, intergenerational frictions and how technology makes vengeance not just possible but almost exceedingly easy in the modern age. Email your chatters, questions, and comments to gabfest@slate.com. (Messages may be referenced by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.) Podcast production by Kevin Bendis Research by Emily DittoYou can find the full Political Gabfest show pages here. Want more Political Gabfest? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you’ll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Political Gabfest show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or visit slate.com/gabfestplus to get access wherever you listen. Find out more about David Plotz's monthly tours of Ft. DeRussy, the secret Civil War fort hidden in Rock Creek Park.
  • Listener Questions

    45:48|
    This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz answer listeners' questions of all kinds: the political, the personal, and everything in-between. Many thanks to all question contributors: Daniel, Karen, Kelly, Jason, Phoebe, Phil, Alex, Adrian, and Dale!  For this week’s Slate Plus bonus episode, Emily, John, and David answer a few more listener questions, just to tide you over until after a quick break. In the latest Gabfest Reads, David Plotz talks with John Lanchester about his new novel, Look What You Made Me Do, a darkly funny psychological thriller about two couples in modern-day London whose lives collide in a story of infidelity, obsession, and revenge. The book explores the performance of niceness, class, intergenerational frictions and how technology makes vengeance not just possible but almost exceedingly easy in the modern age. Email your chatters, questions, and comments to gabfest@slate.com. (Messages may be referenced by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.) Podcast production by Nina Porzucki Research by Emily DittoYou can find the full Political Gabfest show pages here. Want more Political Gabfest? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you’ll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Political Gabfest show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or visit slate.com/gabfestplus to get access wherever you listen. Find out more about David Plotz's monthly tours of Ft. DeRussy, the secret Civil War fort hidden in Rock Creek Park.   Follow@SlateGabfest on X / https://twitter.com/SlateGabfestSlate Political Gabfest on Facebook / https://www.facebook.com/Gabfest/
  • Gabfest Reads | Look What You Made Me Do

    33:42|
    David Plotz interviews John Lanchester about his new novel Look What You Made Me Do, a darkly funny psychological thriller about two couples in modern-day London whose lives collide in a story of infidelity, obsession, and revenge. The book explores the performance of niceness, class, intergenerational frictions and how technology makes vengeance not just possible but almost exceedingly easy in the modern age. The novel's real pleasure lies in its voice and humor, including a legendary dinner party scene where a character launches into a scathing riff on the ubiquity of Yotam Ottolenghi's cooking in contemporary British life. The result is simultaneously a thriller, a comedy, and a dark meditation on niceness in an age when everyone is watching everyone else.Tweet us your questions @SlateGabfest or email us at gabfest@slate.com. (Messages could be quoted by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.)Podcast production by Nina Porzucki.
  • Air Faux One

    58:54|
    This week, Emily Bazelon, David Plotz, and guest host Juliette Kayyem discuss the security calculations behind Trump’s plane switch operation; the White House’s attempts to circumvent Supreme Court rulings in its continued obsession with ‘birth tourism’; and whether ‘burritogate’ reveals the extent of today’s economic anxiety or that young Americans simply aren’t learning to cook anymore. For this week’s Slate Plus bonus episode, Emily, David, and guest host Juliette Kayyem discuss whether the benefits of the Flock surveillance network are worth its tradeoffs. Flock cameras help police solve crimes, but cases of officers abusing their access to the technology for stalking raise concerns about privacy violations.  In the latest Gabfest Reads, John Dickerson interviews Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan about their new book Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump. Drawing on extensive reporting from inside the White House, they explore how Trump’s second term differs radically from his first, from his decision-making process to the people surrounding him and his relationship with power, money, and the presidency itself. Email your chatters, questions, and comments to gabfest@slate.com. (Messages may be referenced by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.) Podcast production by Jay Cockburn Research by Nora MosesYou can find the full Political Gabfest show pages here. Want more Political Gabfest? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you’ll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Political Gabfest show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or visit slate.com/gabfestplus to get access wherever you listen. Find out more about David Plotz's monthly tours of Ft. DeRussy, the secret Civil War fort hidden in Rock Creek Park.   Follow@SlateGabfest on X / https://twitter.com/SlateGabfestSlate Political Gabfest on Facebook / https://www.facebook.com/Gabfest/
  • Data Center Backlash

    56:48|
    This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss what Abdul El-Sayed's Michigan primary win signals about the future of the Democratic Party, Todd Blanche's march toward confirmation as attorney general and how opposition to AI data centers swiftly became a bipartisan political fight.Listener chatter from Francis Creighton in Bethesda, Maryland: UK Parliament: Chiltern Hundreds and the Manor of Northstead; Martin Spychal for History of Parliament: How does an MP resign? The Chiltern Hundreds & the Manor of NorthsteadFor this week’s Slate Plus bonus episode, Gabfest discusses the political fallout surrounding Rep. Max Miller and what the episode says about today’s Republican Party.  In the latest Gabfest Reads, John Dickerson interviews Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan about their new book Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump. Drawing on extensive reporting from inside the White House, they explore how Trump’s second term differs radically from his first, from his decision-making process to the people surrounding him and his relationship with power, money, and the presidency itself. Email your chatters, questions, and comments to gabfest@slate.com. (Messages may be referenced by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.) Podcast production by Kevin Bendis Research by Nora MosesYou can find the full Political Gabfest show pages here. Want more Political Gabfest? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you’ll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Political Gabfest show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or visit slate.com/gabfestplus to get access wherever you listen.