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NAB Morning Call
Year kicks off with rising inflation concerns
Season 9, Ep. 1
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Monday 13th January 2025
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NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil on the podcast this morning, where the inflation outlook is very different to where we were before Christmas. Ray says Fed-speak last week was already pushing back expectations for a rate cut in the US, then a much stronger than anticipated payrolls number of Friday reaffirmed those concerns. That’s pushed yields higher and weekend equities, whilst the US dollar continues to rise, at the expense of all other major currencies. With US inflation data this week, prepare for a choppy one.
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6. Weekend Edition: The Lowdown on High Employment
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15:44||Season 8, Ep. 301Friday 20th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs we recovered in the later editions of the Morning Call yesterday there was a strong market response to the Fed yesterday -from the statement and the press conference. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, there’s been a slight reversal in equity markets today, but nothing significant, and the US dollar continues to push higher. Since then, the Bank of Japan has done as expected, but still managed to weaken the Yen, perhaps because some are now wondering whether a rate rise won’t happen until March. The Bank of England kept on hold, but with a divided board. The Norges Bank and Riksbank did as expected. Meanwhile a s surprise in yesterday’s New Zealand GDP. Good news or bad?300. Hawkish cut, on the slow road to 3 percent
18:34||Season 8, Ep. 300Thursday 19th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed has cut interest rates as expected, and they have halved the number of cuts they expect next year. As NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, there was only one dissenter, wanting to keep rates on hold. That seems highly likely next time, as the Fed dot plot sees just two cuts next year, eventually aiming for an expected neutral rate close to 3 percent.Also, UK CPI didn’t surprise, and the Bank of England isn’t expected to either, keeping rates on hold, as inflationary pressures, though falling, remain high. The Bank of Japan also meets today. Another case of hold, but an expectation of a small rise early next year. And New Zealand’s economy is expected to show a second quarterly decline this morning.