NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 10th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGlobal markets are in a buoyant mood, with US and European equities pushing higher, the US dollar sliding and lifting the Aussie above 70.9 US cents, and commodities from gold to oil on the rise — but the real story today is at home, where Australia’s household spending remains 5% higher than a year ago. Will today’s NAB business survey continues to show strong trading conditions and high-capacity utilisation, reinforcing the question of whether the economy is simply running too hot for the RBA’s comfort. With US markets bracing for retail sales, inflation and jobs data, Japan settling after Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election win, and UK assets wobbling on political jitters, Rodrigo Catril joins us to unpack whether Australia’s resilience is now a policy problem.

Friday 6th February 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This weekend we’re looking at Minotaur Capital — the global equities fund run by just two people and a whole lot of AI. Armina “Arms” Rosenberg and Thomas Rice launched the firm in late 2023 with a simple idea: replace the analyst floor with generative intelligence capable of scanning markets, news flow and pricing anomalies at a scale no human team can match. It’s worked so far — a notional million dollars at the start of 2024 would have grown to more than $1.43 million by year’s end — but the bigger question is whether this is the future of funds management, where algorithms and AI agents do the heavy lifting and humans steer the thematics. We talk to Arms about her path from JP Morgan to Atlassian to co‑founding Minotaur, how their proprietary engine finds mispriced companies, why they’ve beaten the MSCI hardly touching the Magnificent Seven, and what the next generation of AI‑driven research looks like.

Friday 6th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets slid again overnight as tech stocks took another hit, with Alphabet’s hefty AI‑driven capex plans spooking investors, while softer US jobs data raised fresh questions about next week’s non‑farm payrolls and the Fed’s path for rate cuts. Treasury yields fell, commodities weakened sharply, and the Aussie slipped below 69.8 US cents. In Europe, both the Bank of England and ECB held rates, even as UK inflation is expected to hit target by April and Eurozone inflation already sits below 2%. Locally, Australia’s trade balance improved, and all eyes turn to RBA Governor Michelle Bullock’s parliamentary testimony today. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins the show, failing to appreciate the cultural significance of Pascall’s Pineapple Lumps on Waitangi Day.

Thursday 5th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTech stocks are sliding again, with AMD’s weak outlook triggering a broader rethink on AI spending and dragging the NASDAQ lower. Ken Crompton says markets are questioning whether AI revenues can keep pace with the investment surge, ahead of Alphabet’s results tonight and NVIDIA later this month. Energy is the standout as oil climbs on renewed Iran–US tensions and delays to planned talks. US data stay firm — services ISM strengthened, ADP was soft, and the BLS has reset its calendar with JOLTS today and payrolls next Wednesday. Europe’s inflation eased, the ECB and BoE are set to hold, NZ unemployment rose on higher participation, and China’s private‑sector services PMI improved. The USD is firmer, the AUD is softer, oil is up, and global equities are split between tech weakness and energy strength.

Wednesday 4th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA’s widely expected rate hike to 3.85% stole the show, but it was the sharper tone in the Statement on Monetary Policy and Michelle Bullock’s press conference that really moved markets, with the Bank now warning of broader‑based inflation pressures and pushing its return‑to‑target timeline all the way out to mid‑2028. The Aussie dollar surged past 70 US cents as equities softened and bond yields climbed. Meanwhile gold has bounced back a little, the US dollar slipped, the Fed’s loan officer survey showed mixed credit demand, Europe awaits fresh CPI, China’s services PMI is due, and with Washington still in partial shutdown the ADP report is the only US jobs data we’ll see this week, apart from what we can glean from the US services ISM out later. Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through it all.

Tuesday 3rd February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith markets all but certain the RBA will lift rates today, attention turns to the Bank’s updated forecasts. Meanwhile traders navigate a week without US jobs data thanks to Washington’s partial shutdown. A stronger US dollar, buoyant equities and rising bond yields set the backdrop, alongside a hawkish market reaction to Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination and a punchy US ISM showing growth in orders and production but weaker employment. Oil has slumped, gold has tumbled, China’s private‑sector PMI has surprised on the upside, and the US–India tariff shift barely moved the dial. 

Monday 2nd February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday’s episode digs into the market whiplash triggered by President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair — a move that nudged the US dollar higher, knocked the Aussie lower, and sent precious metals into a full‑blown plunge, even as equities and bonds delivered a more mixed, almost reluctant response. We unpack whether the gold and silver surge was really about Fed independence, revisit Warsh’s crisis‑era credentials and his scepticism of QE, and explore what his arrival means for balance‑sheet policy, rate‑cut expectations, and the future of Stephen Miran. Alongside that, we scan a messy global backdrop: China’s PMIs slipping below 50, Europe surprising with stronger GDP, US manufacturing beating forecasts, Japan’s inflation still too sticky for the BoJ’s comfort, and Washington wrestling with a partial government shutdown. Plus, a look ahead to a packed central‑bank week — RBA, BoE, ECB — and a Middle East update that has US officials signalling caution despite the President’s military build‑up.

Friday 23rd January 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Oil has been trending lower lately. Rory Johnston says its primarily down to an expanding oil glut, which the market expects will be ultimately corrected. In the meantime, the impact of the glut has been subsumed by a variety of other factors, such as sanctions on Russia, the attack on Venezuela, uncertainty over Iran and such like. Without these distractions and the assumption of a supply correction Rory reckons oil prices would be sub $50, if not sub $40.Rory is an oil market researcher, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munks school of global affairs and public policy, and founder of Commodity Context, that provides deep data-driven analysis of the oil markets (commoditycontext.com). He joins Phil to talk through what is influencing oil prices and what he expects to happen this year.