Share
NAB Morning Call
Weekend Edition: Thinking beyond the deal
Season 9, Ep. 104
•
Friday 16th May 2025
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
It’s been a frantic week of deal making by the US President. Was this always part of the plan? To create a destabilising set of circumstances that whets the appetite for deals with the US? Phil asks Michael Feller whether that was the plan all along and, if so, are we over the worst of uncertainty, and should investors be planning for a renewed emphasis on global growth?
Michael is chief strategist at Geopolitical Strategy in Sydney, who advise firms about navigating environments just like this. He’s a former finance journalist, investment strategist and spent many years in government, as a diplomat in Singapore, as senior adviser to Malcolm Turnbull, and director of the Department of Foreigner Affairs and Trade.
Phil asks him, how should investors position themselves in a world dominated with tariff talk, but also riddled with geopolitical unrest, from Israel and Iran to Russia and Ukraine, and this last week, India and Pakistan? And should we prepare for a more multipolar world? That’s something that was emerging, says Michael, well before Trump returned to the White House.
More episodes
View all episodes
56. The R word
14:03||Season 10, Ep. 56Wednesday 18th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday NAB’s Sally Auld unpacks the fallout from the RBA's recent interest rate hike to 4.1%. While the decision was a close 5-4 split, it was a question of timing rather than any division of intent. Governor Michelle Bullock’s warning that a recession might be a "necessary" cost to tame stubborn inflation has sent ripples through the market. Meanwhile there’s the surprising resilience of the global economy, noted in both Chinese and US data prior to the Middle East conflict. Phil and Sally also look ahead to the the Bank of Canada and the Fed both poised to keep rates on hold in a "mega week" for central banks.55. Risk appetite rises, but why?
12:39||Season 10, Ep. 55Tuesday 17th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil this morning to explore the curious rise in global risk appetite despite ongoing volatility and a lack of significant change in the Middle East conflict. They break down the surprising overnight market shifts, including falling yields and a strengthening Aussie dollar, while questioning the sustainability of this "mild positive sentiment". There’s also a preview of today’s highly anticipated RBA meeting - where a rate hike to 4.1% is widely expected - and analyses strong new economic data from China that suggests a firmer start to the year for the global power.54. Banks and bombs
17:25||Season 10, Ep. 54Monday 16th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe war in the Middle East continues to drive sentiment, with oil pushing back above $100 and bond yields rising. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil this morning to discuss how weak US data on Friday, including a sharp fall in GDP. This compounds the issue, leaving central banks balancing inflstion fears with concerns about demand destruction. Slowing economic growth is not confined to the US – the UK also saw weak GDP numbers on Friday, whilst unemployment rose in Canada. None of this is likely to prevent a rate rise from the RBA tomorrow, but other central banks meeting this week, of which there are many, are likelyt to wait and see how things unfold.
53. Weekend Edition: Brookfield's Upson on AI's $7 trillion opportunity
32:11||Season 10, Ep. 53Friday 13th March 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this episode of The Morning Call, Stewart Upson, Co-President of Infrastructure and Global Head of Strategy at Brookfield, discusses the massive infrastructure shift driven by the rapid evolution of Artificial Intelligence. Upson frames AI as a "flywheel" for technological development, highlighting a staggering $7 trillion investment opportunity over the next decade as the industry moves from basic data centers to fully integrated "data factories". He emphasizes that energy supply remains the primary bottleneck for growth, explaining how Brookfield leverages its expertise in renewable power and nuclear energy to de-risk these high-capital projects. From the rise of sovereign AI and personal AI agents to the long-term potential of embodied AI and robotics, Upson provides a comprehensive look at how infrastructure investors are building the foundation for a more productive, AI-driven global economy.52. War of words
15:42||Season 10, Ep. 52Friday 13th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB's Gavin Friend joins Phil today as heightened rhetoric over Iran pushes oil back over $100 for a spell. They unpack a significant climb in bond yields across the US, UK, and Europe, reflecting a market that is quickly pricing out hope for near-term rate cuts amidst the largest oil supply disruption in history. While the IEA warns of an 8 million barrel per day drop in global supply for March, Gavin breaks down why US Navy escorts might be the only hope for reopening the Straits of Hormuz by month's end. The conversation also pivots to the UK's precarious fiscal position under Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of new GDP data and a surprisingly sharp narrowing of the US trade deficit that could shift Q1 growth forecasts.51. Oil trapped by Strait’s jacket
12:34||Season 10, Ep. 51Thursday 12th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the intensifying tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian attacks on merchant vessels and the threat of naval mines have effectively halted all shipping traffic. Despite a massive release of 400 million barrels of oil from IEA reserves, supply fears have pushed Brent crude toward $92 a barrel, with Iran warning the west should prepare for $200 oil. So, how is this energy shock complicating the global inflation outlook, specifically forcing a shift in NAB’s forecast to include consecutive RBA rate hikes in March and May to combat mounting domestic capacity constraints.50. Hawkish RBA and another TACO moment?
16:09||Season 10, Ep. 50Wednesday 11th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Skye Masters says there’s been a wave of optimism in global markets, driven by President Trump’s comments on the potential end of the Israel-Iran conflict. It was also an historic day for corporate bond issuance in the US. The tide could be turning now though, as oil prices start to rise again this morning. Phil and Skye also examine the RBA’s hawkish stance following Andrew Hauser’s recent comments, and the latest results from the NAB Business Survey, which shows easing confidence amidst persistent capacity constraints. Finally, they look at China’s surprisingly strong trade data and the softening demand seen in the latest US Treasury bond auctions. US CPI tonight would normally be significant to markets, but it’s likely to be overtaken by events in the Middle East.49. Reserves add a little light relief
16:19||Season 10, Ep. 49Tuesday 10th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB’s Sally Auld discuss the roller coaster ride of oil prices, which took a breather after G7 nations hinted at tapping into their strategic reserves. While this news offered a bit of temporary relief to the markets, it’s a short-term fix and markets will be driven by how long the conflict drags on for, and how long supply is blocked through the Strait of Hormuz. They also look at the inflationary impacts for Australia, the surprising resilience of the Aussie dollar as a commodity currency, and what shifting global trends mean for central banks heading into their next round of policy meetings.48. A Crude Awakening
14:58||Season 10, Ep. 48Monday 9th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe global economy is facing a volatile "double whammy" as intensifying conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices toward the $100 mark whilst the US labour market shows unexpected signs of cooling. Friday's US jobs data shocked markets with a loss of 92,000 jobs against expectations of growth, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4%. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil today to discuss how, as Israel/US and Iran engage in retaliatory strikes on critical oil and desalination infrastructure, central banks are left in a precarious position: grappling with rising inflationary pressures from energy costs while weighing the need for rate cuts to support weakening domestic economies. With US inflation data and major bond auctions on the horizon, and the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations serving as a backdrop, the "invisible hand" of the market appears increasingly gripped by geopolitical uncertainty.