NAB Morning Call

Friday 29th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe message from the RBA continues to be that there is no rush to drop rates. NAB’s Tapas Strickland highlights a chart presented by Michelle Bullock last night, which showed Australia’s interest rate compared to other leading economies, relative to the expected nominal neutral rate. And the decision on how much and when will be made by a new group next year, as the board of the RBA splits in two, with one responsible purely for monetary policy decisions. Inflation in Germany has slowed a little, but probably not enough for the ECB to make a 50bp cut. Europe continues to be in a world of worry, particularly France, where 10-year yields momentarily fell below Greek yields for the first time ever. But good news for Americans, whose Thanksgiving dinner will have been a bit cheaper this year.

Thursday 28th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA weaker dollar, falling share prices and very light trade. It’s close to the end of the month and Thanksgiving today in the US. NAB’s Ken Crompton returns rto the Morning Call to give is take on the market moves overnight on the back of largely unsurprising data from the US. There’s also discussion about Gov Orr’s presser after yesterday’s 50bp cut for the RBNZ, suggesting another big cut might be due in February. It’s the opposite message coming from the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, suggesting there’s less room for cuts from the ECB. All eyes and ears will be on the RBA’s Michelle Bullock tonight, given she is never backwards incoming forward. Will she be Talking Turkey on Thanksgiving?

Wednesday 27th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNo big surprises in the FOMC minutes out this morning, with the Fed saying it continues to be data dependent, and that could mean a pause, or faster cuts. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are still split on whether a cut will happen in December, just as there’s an outside chance the RBNZ will cut by 75bp this week. The two big news stories of the morning though – a likely ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, and announcements of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada from day one of the presidency. Will either actually come to pass? Or last long? The widening spread in bond yields between France and Germany demonstrates the heightening concerns over French politics, even though Germany is hardly the “poster child” says Sally. Meanwhile, the latest Consumer Confidence survey shows the US is in quite a good place right now.

Tuesday 26th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have reversed their position a little for the first time since the US election results. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it reflects the response to Scott Benson as the likely new Treasury head, who is seen as a more moderate, safe pair of hands, who won’t impose blanket tariffs. That news has strengthened the Euro and helped the share price of US mid-caps who might have seen input prices rise if such a radical policy was imposed quickly. The day’s other positive news was the possibility of an Israel Hezbollah ceasefire. There’s nothing more concrete than positive words from the White House national security spokesperson, but it was enough to drive oil prices significantly lower. Rodrigo also tells us why tomorrows FOMC minutes will be particularly important, and why the latest NZ data won’t change the course of the RBNZ this week.

Monday 25th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFriday highlighted the difference between US exceptionalism and European pessimism. NAB's Ray Attrill explains how PMIs were higher than expected in America, lower than anticipated for the EU. Phil asks how much of the difference is down to anticipated impacts of Trump’s tariff agenda? With political unrest there seems no easy way for Europe to dig itself out of the malaise, short of reading Mario Draghi’s growth proposals. They also talk about the moves in market expectations for rate cuts, for the US, UK and the ECB, as well as for the RBNZ this week.

Friday 22nd November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The private credit market is growing in volume with no signs of abating. Brad Calleja, Executive Corporate Finance at NAB, says its difficult to put a precise figure on the size of the space because not all deals are visible, but it’s estimated globally at between $2 and $3 trillion. So, what is it and why is it growing so quickly? Brad explains that it is providing a vehicle for institutional funds, such as super funds, to achieve higher returns from higher risk, longer duration investments that sit outside the risk profiles of most banks. If that’s the case, what’s the role of a bank like NAB in private credit markets? Listen in to understand more.

Friday 22nd November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAre NVIDIA investors a bit like Oliver Twist? They want more. That’s the take of NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on the Morning Call. The data was all second tier and none of it changed market expectations around the Fed’s path of rate cuts. US jobless claims were down, but continued claims were up, suggesting employers are letting less people go, but at the same time are not recruiting more. Positive news on housing, which can be choppy, was offset by gloomy news in the Philly Fed manufacturing outlook. So, it was a mixed picture overnight. The upshot, we need more solid data to get a clearer picture. Meanwhile, in the uncertainty, Bitcoin careers closer to the $100k mark. And will the promise of Roast Turkey drive up shares next week- which often happens on Thanksgiving week.

Thursday 21st November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s no been much in the way of data to give markets any direction. Ahead of the NVIDIA results equities were trading lower, with the US dollar up slightly, and no big moves in oil. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland why there wasn’t more of aa reaction to events in Eastern Europe, with Ukraine firing US and UK supplied missiles into Russian territory, and the US, Italy, Spain and Greece temporarily closing their embassies in Kyiv, fearing an imminent attack. Meanwhile, UK inflation was a little higher than expected, reducing further the chance of a pre-Christmas cut from the Bank of England. There’s also been a claim that labour data in the UK has significantly overestimated unemployment.  Today, Europe’s consumer confidence numbers, US existing home sales and initial jobless claims, as well as the Philly Fed business outlook. And the RBA’s Michelle Bullock is talking at 7 tonight in Sydney at the Women in Payments Conference.