NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 7th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith the US back from their 4th July long weekend there’s been renewed interest in buying tech stocks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss this and more. Including OPEC+ upping oil production – isn’t it a little academic as supplies out of the Gulf are still restrained. The US services ISM showed us how, despite inflation, the US economy is still strong. Inflation is more of a concern for Japan, with wages data and household spending today adding to the picture. And Donald Trump is off to the NATO summit. Does he have his sights set on a resolution for the Ukraine crisis?

Monday 6th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBrent crude is holding on in the low seventies, despite all the uncertainty around Iran. This isn’t where most commentators expected it would land according to NAB’s Ray Attrill. Phil asks what this means for inflation expectations and how much of this was factored into NAB;’s latest FX forecasts released on Friday. Meanwhile, a quiet session on Friday with the US on holiday, but the Rating Dog Services PMI showed a surprisingly strong result, and the US Services ISM out tonight. This week is also pretty quiet, with the RBNZ rate decision the main event. Central bankers will step up to fill the void, with quite a few speaking opportunities in the week ahead.

Friday 3rd July 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The government’s newly minted capital gains tax (CGT) rules threaten to hold back productive investment. That’s the view of veteran fund manager Geoff Wilson, founder of Wilson Asset Management, who says the changes for equities and businesses will ultimately restrict job creation and limit wealth generation for younger Australians. While Geoff has no problem with shifting tax incentives away from established property, he warns that clipping the wings of risk-taking investors will stall the country's broader productivity. Are the government's minimum tax requirements fundamentally flawed, or are they a necessary step to level the playing field? Also, how deeply is social media shifting retail investment decisions, and have global AI valuations run dangerously ahead of reality? Tune in to hear one of Australia's most outspoken market experts deliver his unvarnished take on where local wealth is headed.

Friday 3rd July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe non-farm payrolls from the US overnight came in softer than expected, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril strong enough for the Fed to dismiss concerns about the labour market and focus more of inflation. Phil asks him about the impact of this on bond markets, whilst equities have been hit by more AI concerns. With Anthropic reportedly teaming up with Samsung to develop their own bespoke chips it increasingly hard to know how to pick the winners. They also discuss the rise in the Yen. If Japanese authorities are looking at currency intervention could the thinner trading of a US holiday be the time to do that?

Thursday 2nd July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a quiet day on the markets. So, for a change, an edition of The Morning Call that doesn’t mention the words Iran or Gulf. Instead, the focus has been on that last panel session at the ECB Forum in Sintra. Kevin Warsh didn’t give anything away on monetary policy, except to reiterate that from now on they won’t be giving anything away on monetary policy, but he did give his thoughts on the progress of inflation. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to walk through that meeting, the weaker than expected inflation numbers for Europe, the slide in the US manufacturing ISM and a preview of tonight’s non-farm payrolls.

Wednesday 1st July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Yen fell further again overnight, hitting another 40-year low, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s no indication of when and if there will be any further currency intervention. US equities push higher and oil falls lower as Iran news falls off the front pages and investors focus more on the fundamentals. The RBA minutes yesterday reiterated that conditions were ‘now probably somewhat restrictive’, but was that enough to change expectations for a cut? Meanwhile house price data out this morning shows a drop in house prices for Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra. Plus, the latest European inflation data, China’s PMIs, confidence and jobs data from the US, with US manufacturing ISM out today. The main event could be that Sintra closing panel, with Kevin Warsh joining Lagarde, Bailey and Macklem, but given his opposition to forward guidance what can he talk about? The weather?

Tuesday 30th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs NAB’s Gavin Friend discusses with Phil, five cities are the focus for markets right now. In Doha, there are high hopes that high-level peace talks are resuming to stabilize maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz. In Tokyo, markets are on the look out for a currency intervention after the Japanese yen languished to a staggering 40-year low past 161.96 against the greenback. In Sintra, the global monetary elite are gathering for the ECB forum, where AI risk is very much the agenda. In Washington a landmark 5-4 U.S. Supreme Court ruling fiercely defends central bank independence by blocking the White House from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Finally, in Moscow, Vladimir Putin has publicly admitted that targeted Ukrainian infrastructure strikes are severely impacting Russian life as local fuel supplies run short. Your whistle stop tour starts now!

Monday 29th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNobody can accuse markets of being overly cynical about peace negotiations, says NAB’s Ken Crompton on this morning’s podcast. Oil fell on Friday despite skirmishes between Iran and Iran as Tehran seeks to reassert its control over the Strait. Most data on Friday were second tier stuff, with the surprise in the size of the US goods trade deficit the most surprising. Fed speakers over the weekend were sounding hawkish, and there will be a lot of interest in what Kevin Warsh says in Sintra this week. Yes, as Phil describes it, it’s the glitz and the glamour of the ECB Central Bankers Forum in Portugal, which is likely to provide a drip feed of news this week, alongside US jobs data, culminating in non-farm payrolls on Thursday.

Friday 26th June 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Is artificial intelligence on track to save mankind, or is the relentless hype hiding a massive financial crash and an ultimate existential threat? This weekend Phil tackles these profound questions with BCA Research's Chief Global Investment Strategist, Peter Berezin, following his controversial paper, “Boom Before Doom: The Terrifying Reason to Be Bullish on AI”. Drawing sharp parallels to the 2000 dotcom bust, Peter challenges the "winner-take-all" assumptions fueling today’s record data centre investments. He warns that computing power is rapidly becoming a commoditised, low-margin utility akin to historical railroads, canals, and airlines—destined to lose investors billions even as it reshapes society. But if the financial structural risks aren't enough, the episode pivots to a chilling medium-term outlook: if first-mover tech giants fail to generate sustainable profits, what happens if they intentionally give AI models full autonomy over real-world infrastructure and corporate operations simply to slash human labour costs?