NAB Morning Call

Friday 7th August 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.As massive capital expenditure pours into artificial intelligence, the narrative is rapidly shifting from speculative equity gains to a major structural opportunity across debt and credit markets. This week Phil is joined by NAB’s Head of Credit Strategy, Peter Fullerton, to explore why credit markets might offer a far safer, cash-flow-backed alternative to navigating a potential tech equity bubble. Peter explains that while tech hyperscalers are turning free cash flow negative to fund relentless CapEx—causing corporate debt spreads to widen—they still enter debt markets with resilient, high-grade balance sheets that shield bondholders far better than the dot-com era ever did. Closer to home, the focus turns to the physical infrastructure build-out: how Australia's expanding data centre footprint and transmission grid rollouts are creating high-yielding, long-tenor, investment-grade paper backed by tier-one tenants. Are equity markets ignoring the monetization wall ahead, and is local credit the smartest way to extract yield from the AI wave without risking the downside of an equity reckoning?

Friday 14th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS producer price growth came in a little lower than expected, giving hopes that inflation is trending lower. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks about the market response, with expectations for Fed hikes weakening, even as Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammock said they might need two hikes before the year is out. Ken also talks with Phil about the speech yesterday by the RBA’s Chris Kent, the UK’s surprise GDP read, and the day ahead, of which US retail sales is the focus.

Thursday 13th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarket action has been very contained overnight, with small moves down in oil, glacial moves for currencies and bonds and share moves largely confined to US infrastructure plays. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to discuss yesterday’s US inflation data which, although rising, was no worse than expected. Hence the muted response. Today the focus will be on US PPI and what the RBA’s Christopher Kwent has to say on a livestreamed fireside chat this morning.

Wednesday 12th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt was, as expected, a fairly hawkish RBA yesterday. As NAB’s Skye Masters explains, tweaks to forecasts were relatively minor and they still expect to see inflation back on target in the second half of next year, but Michelle Bullock said she personally believes another hike this year might be necessary. ‘We’ll have to wait and see,’ she said, which seems to be the markets approach to everything right now, including the impacts of the Gulf, which is in stalemate. The impact of that, and AI spending and wage growth will be watched for in today’s US CPI. Will price growth slow? We’ll have to wait and see.

Monday 10th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS payrolls data surprised most on Friday with a weaker than expected number of jobs, but also a fall in the unemployment rate. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether US immigration policies are part of the picture here. Rodrigo also suggests that lower unemployment and weaker wage growth gives the Fed more time to decide on policy changes, with two CPI prints before the next meeting, the first of those this week. Oil meanwhile remains range bound as the future in the Gulf remains uncertain. Iran is demanding more before agreeing to reopening of the Hormuz Strait. This week the RBA meeting is the key focus, inconveniently scheduled for the same day as the NAB Business Survey.

Friday 7th August 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia is aiming to reach Net Zero by 2050. Will we make it? There are heaps of initiatives underway, but do we know whether the cumulative effect is enough for us to hit the target? Phil talks to Toby Phillips, economics director at the Centre for Policy Development, about how the country’s approach is being coordinated. It’s not being coordinated well enough, seems to be Toby’s take – with no government department or agency fully owning the targets and outcomes. Is the Climate Change Authority’s proposed Evidence Platform a step towards a more coordinated approach, offering more current data rather than lagging indicators which might just show we are off-target? The CPD in their submission on the proposed platform said it would need to consider social equity, finance and policy. He talks through the importance of each on this week’s podcast. 

Friday 7th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFighting has kicked off again in the Middle East, this time the Houthis attacking Saudi supported territory in Yemen, with a significant loss of life. Could this open up the troubles on another front, drawing Saudi Arabia further into the conflict. Meanwhile, a deal on the reopening the Strait still hasn’t happened. The net effect oil is back on the rise, and the Aussie dollar has lost ground. What happens next will be a focus today, along with labour market data for the US and Canada. As Phil discusses with NAB’s Ken Crompton there has been a series of data suggesting strength in the labour market – for example, last night’s weekly jobless claims fell below 200k (for the 4-week average) for the first time since October 2022.

Thursday 6th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEverything's on hold it seems. There have been no big moves in oil prices because, as NAB’s ray Attrill explains, there’s still no definitive news on the strait, although an interim agreement between Oman and Iran has been drafted, but will still need US approval. Shares have lost their momentum, although the S&P has squeaked ahead to a new high. SpaceX took a hit as investors responded unfavourably to spending plans. US ISM data was strong, but not as compelling as the upward revisions in European PMI data. Today, Australia trade data is out with another monthly deficit expected, but basically everyone is holding out for tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls and a finalised agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.