NAB Morning Call

Friday 9th October 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia’s housing market continues to present a puzzling contradiction: despite record-low vacancy rates and a severe structural shortage of housing, rental price growth has stalled—and in major cities like Sydney and Canberra, house rents are actually falling. On this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil speaks with Dr. Nicola Powell, Chief Residential Economist at Domain, to unpack the underlying forces shaping the market. They explore whether affordability ceilings are forcing renters to adjust household sizes, how recent government tax settings and investor sentiment are shifting capital, and why traditional supply-and-demand rules are producing unexpected outcomes across major capital cities.

Friday 9th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABRisk-off sentiment dominated global markets as geopolitical tensions flared in the Persian Gulf. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss a turbulent session sparked by an attack on an oil tanker near Qatar, which sent Brent crude surging toward $104 a barrel alongside hurricane-related production cut. Energy cost spikes and tech sector drags—amplified by OpenAI revenue concerns and potential US visa restrictions—weighed heavily on equities. Meanwhile, what will hawkish signals from Fed Governor Christopher Waller mean for rate expectations?

Thursday 8th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil drifts lower, French yields rocket, and the FOMC minutes reveal a Federal Reserve that is far from done worrying about inflation. Phil is joined by NAB’s Ray Attrill who says the newly released FOMC minutes are a little more dovish than anticipated, whilst the NY Fed’s consume inflation expectations pushed higher. Meanwhile fiscal strain in France is pushing bond spreads wider across the Eurozone, and Brent crude has slipped back under $100 a barrel despite another sharp drop in US stockpiles. Today it’s a case of words not numbers. Ray explains why.

Wednesday 7th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S&P 500 has notched its first fresh all-time high since August, supported by optimism ahead of the Q3 earnings season and steadying US Treasury yields. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil is joined by NAB’s Gavin Friend to dissect the market moves—starting with a sharp pullback in French bond yields after far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen pledged a "golden rule" deficit reduction plan to stabilize public finances. The pair also explore the broader macro drivers, including crude oil holding below $100/bbl despite Middle East supply bottlenecks, hawkish inflation warnings from Fed officials, German factory order slumps, and a widening US trade deficit ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes.

Tuesday 6th October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equity markets kicked off the week with solid gains as the tech sector pushed higher, but fixed income markets continued to grapple with elevated yields as US 10-year Treasuries pushed up to 5.34%. Following a long weekend in parts of Australia, Phil Dobbie and NAB's Taylor Nugent unpack a busy start to October, analysing Friday's softer-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls print (+28k) and its impact on Fed rate expectations. Across the Atlantic, European markets are dealing with fresh political and fiscal strain, with French bond yields under pressure amid budget debates and Spain announcing a snap election. Meanwhile, crude oil remains volatile above $100/bbl despite G7 inventory releases and Middle East shipping developments.

Friday 2nd October 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.As artificial intelligence rapidly transforms from a speculative tech trend into the primary driver of global market returns, how are institutional investors actually positioning their capital for the road ahead? This Phil Dobbie sits down with Damien Webb, Chief Investment Officer for Brighter Super, fresh off an insightful trip to Silicon Valley meeting with frontier AI labs, quantum computing founders, and top academic minds.Damien shares why his boots-on-the-ground experience left him overwhelmingly optimistic about the tech supercycle—and why superannuation funds can't afford to sit on the sidelines. From the soaring commodity demand for copper and energy infrastructure to revolutionary medical breakthroughs in GLP-1 drugs and cancer treatments, how do institutional investors balance high-valuation risks against transformative upside? Is the ongoing surge in global bond yields the ultimate reality check for tech balance sheets? Tune in for a fascinating dive into portfolio construction, private equity opportunities, and what riding in an autonomous Waymo car reveals about our economic future!

Friday 2nd October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFrance's escalating budget woes and fiscal watchdog criticism have sent sovereign bond markets into a tizzy, causing French-German yield spreads to widen sharply. On today's edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie and NAB's Ken Crompton break down these mixed global signals—from France's budget strain to rising US manufacturing prices and mortgage rates hitting 7.28%. Despite lower US Treasury yields following a brief flight to quality, the US dollar remains firm while crude oil rebounds above $102. The pair also examine Australia’s Financial Stability Review, falling job vacancies, and what today's key US Non-Farm Payrolls report means for upcoming Fed rate expectations.

Thursday 1st October 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGlobal financial markets are navigating a sharp divergence between the US and Europe, driven entirely by conflicting inflation trends. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie speaks with NAB’s Skye Masters to unpack why resilient US economic data, cooler-than-expected Core PCE prints, and upward GDP revisions are supporting Wall Street, even as 10-year Treasury yields push toward 5.30%. In contrast, hot European inflation prints across Germany and France are weighing on sentiment and lifting ECB rate hike expectations. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar has slipped below 69.5 US cents following softer-than-forecast domestic inflation data, which has led markets to tone down expectations for back-to-back RBA rate hikes.

Wednesday 30th September 2026NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFollowing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s unanimous decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, market attention has shifted to Governor Michele Bullock’s post-meeting press conference. NAB's Taylor Nugent says her commentary hinted that the RBA may be returning to its "narrow path" balancing inflation control against labour market conditions, softening some of the hawkish expectations for follow-up hikes. Meanwhile, global bond yields continue their upward trend, pushing 30-year US Treasuries to multi-decade highs, as markets digest a softer US JOLTS job openings report, declining US consumer confidence, and European inflation updates. Looking ahead, today brings Australia's August CPI data alongside the US PCE inflation report and Chinese PMI reads.