NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 14th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhile you'd expect chaos, NAB’s Ray Attrill notes that markets actually moved towards the end of the session on a positive note, spurred on by President Trump’s claims that Iranian officials are reaching out to talk peace—even if we should take that with a healthy pinch of salt. He talks to Phil about the "yo-yo" effect on the Aussie dollar, which touched 71 US cents as sentiment shifted, and the continued volatility in oil, with Brent and WTI both climbing despite staying under the $100 mark for now. They also dive into the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance on rate hikes and a sobering warning from the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey regarding the growing threats to global financial stability from the Middle East conflict.

Monday 13th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the "stalemate" in the Middle East after ceasefire talks in Islamabad ended without resolution. The breakdown has led to a further escalation, with President Trump announcing a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while Iran warns that any military approach to the waterway will be considered a breach of the standing agreement. It’s ecpcted markets will show signs of reversal from last week's brief optimism. They also discuss a jump in U.S. CPI driven by surging gasoline prices and an end to China’s deflationary PPI.

Friday 10th April 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Phil is joined by James Bentley (Director of Sustainable Finance at NAB) and Richard Lovell (Head of Debt Markets at CEFC) to discuss how current geopolitical instability and energy price volatility are accelerating the business case for net-zero technologies. The conversation highlights the strategic partnership between NAB and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), which provides significant interest rate discounts—up to 115 basis points for on-farm emissions reduction projects—to help SMEs and farmers overcome the high upfront costs of green equipment. From large-scale green hydrogen fertilizer projects to the adoption of "no-till" farming and battery-powered construction cranes, the guests explain how these investments are shifting from environmental ideals to essential tools for operational resilience and long-term cost management.

Friday 10th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the fragile and one-sided nature of the proposed ceasefire in the Middle East, which Rodrigo notes remains highly volatile as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and Israel continues strikes in Lebanon. The conversation explores the "phantom" nature of the peace deal, with Iran demanding the right to continue enriching uranium and proposing a toll for passage through the Strait—conditions that remain far from any common ground with the U.S.. Beyond the conflict, they break down a worrying divergence in the U.S. economy, where Core PCE inflation rose for a second consecutive month while real consumer spending declined. 

Thursday 9th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB's Skye Masters joins Phil Dobbie to discuss a fragile market reprieve following President Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran. While the news triggered a significant relief rally—sending the Nasdaq up 2.8% and WTI oil down 17% to $91 a barrel—the optimism remains guarded as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and Iran alleges violations of the agreement. Skye notes that while investors are pricing out an immediate escalation, they aren't yet pricing in a total resolution, as energy prices remain well above pre-conflict levels. The discussion also covers the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish stance on stubborn inflation and a strong Japanese payrolls print, both of which suggest central banks may still be forced to tighten despite the global geopolitical volatility.

Wednesday 8th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil amidst the heightened tensions in the Middle East as President Donald Trump's 8:00 p.m. ET deadline approaches. Trump has issued a dire warning on Truth Social that a "whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran fails to comply with demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While Axios reported a "glimmer of progress" in negotiations over the last 24 hours, the situation remains critical following recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Kharg Island and a petrochemical compound in Shiraz. Despite the escalatory rhetoric, global markets have remained relatively sanguine, though oil prices saw WTI rise over 1% to nearly $118 a barrel. The pair also review recent economic data, including strong discretionary spen din Australia in February, and the likely hold from the RBNZ today.

Tuesday 7th April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTaylor Nugent joins Phil Dobbie to discuss the "ratcheting up" of geopolitical tensions as President Trump issues stark warnings and Iran threatens regional infrastructure while maintaining its closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the escalatory rhetoric, global markets showed surprising resilience over the Easter long weekend, though oil remains elevated with Brent hovering near $110 a barrel. They also dissect the latest U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which surprised on the upside with 175k jobs added in March, even as the ISM Services index signalled underlying employment weakness and persistent price pressures. With a light data calendar ahead, the focus remains firmly on the Middle East and upcoming inflation prints from the U.S. and China.

Thursday 2nd April 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Phil is joined by Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, to analyse the shifting geopolitical landscape as President Trump signals a potential wind-down of military action against Iran. Note, this was recorded ahead of Donald Trump’s address today. Haines provides a dual-lens perspective on the administration's strategy, balancing domestic political pressure to end the conflict with the urgent need to reassure Gulf allies that the job will be finished, whilst securing the Strait of Hormuz. But beyond Iran, how are Trump’s policies reflecting on global partnerships and international business. Haines discusses the "Manhattan Project 2.0" branding of AI as a national security priority and examines how a potential Democratic shift in the midterms might impact market sentiment and U.S. regulatory stability.

Thursday 2nd April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB's Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss the wave of optimism sweeping through global markets as speculation grows regarding a potential ceasefire in the Iran conflict. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw significant gains and oil prices dipped near $100 a barrel, the rally trimmed slightly as investors awaited a high-stakes address from President Trump. The conversation also breaks down resilient U.S. economic data, including a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing index—though Taylor notes that rising supply delivery times may reflect Middle East disruptions rather than pure demand. Additionally, the pair explore the Bank of Japan’s growing inflation expectations following the Tankan survey and a rebound in the (admittedly very choppy) Australian building approvals, painting a picture of a global economy showing surprising resilience amidst geopolitical volatility.