NAB Morning Call

Friday 21st March 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.APRA plans to phase out bank hybrids (AT1s) by January 2027. So, what exactly are AT1s and why is the regulator so concerned? In short, they are CoCos, contingent convertibles that transfer to equities when a bank capital’s capital falls below a tipping point. But do mum and dad investors understand the complexity of the offering and do the instruments adequately provide for their intended purpose? That’s APRA’s big concern, pointing to the Credit Suisse example where AT1 investors lost a lot of money.Chris Joye from Coolabah Capital has been critical of the APRA decision. While initially he thought AT1s were too complex an instrument and there was an elegant simplicity in choosing between stocks and bonds, his position has changed. He now worries that some of the mum and dad investors could be driven to even riskier assets.Chris is not one to hold back his opinions, which you’ll hear this week, but he also does a great job of explaining how this asset class works. Something you won’t be able to buy after next year.

Friday 21st March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOne of the takeouts from yesterday's FOMC meeting was Jerome Powell's view that the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be transitory. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets are still expecting two or more cuts this year as a result. Today he looks at the market reaction to the Fed meeting, what happened at the Bank of England, and why Australian employer numbers yesterday were such a big miss.

Thursday 20th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed kept rates on hold as expected and, unsurprisingly, cut their growth projections, increased inflation and increased the unemployment forecast  for this year.  But the dot plot has changed very little.  NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to dissect the Fed’s statement and Jerome Powell’s press conference that followed. It’s clear that the FOMC is in a wait-and-see mode in light of Trump’s policies and the next meeting will be the one to watch for. The forecasts also suggest that they see the inflationary impacts of tariffs to be transitory - something that was reinforced during the press conference. The Bank of Japan also sat on their hands, citing trade policy concerns. Next, it’s the Bank of England’s turn to do nothing. With no press conference or forecasts it’s up to you whether you stay up late for it. Before any of those, Australia’s employment data is out today, with NAB expecting a slight fall in the unemployment rate.

Wednesday 19th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was more market uncertainty today driven largely by geopolitics. Trump and Putin have reached an outline agreement for a 30day ceasefire, but it really hasn’t moved markets. There was more of a concern over the end to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Oil is higher and gold has reached new highs again today. Phil talks to NAB’s Skye’s Masters above moves overnight, including the shift in share purchases from the USA to Europe. And Canada’s CPI rises again - a cause for concern for the Bank of Canada and one that could be echoed around the world?

Tuesday 18th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquities had a good session overnight on both sides of the Atlantic, perhaps because there wasn’t much in the way of bad news. The headline number of US retails sales was weaker than anticipated, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it wasn’t bad when you looked a little deeper. The Empire Sate Manufacturing index showed a big dip but is also considerably volatile. Markets weren’t too excited by the press conference in China where authorities announced their special initiatives to boost domestic consumption, but it continues to be a cautious approach, although it might have helped the Aussie dollar a little, which rose more than other major currencies. The news to look out for today relates to Ukraine – Trump and Putin are talking, will they reach a ceasefire deal that Ukraine will agree to? 

Monday 17th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe know a lot about President Trump’s plan for America First. Today we get to hear China’s plans for growth. NAB’s tapas Strickland says the PBoC and the finance ministry will hold a press conference today about measures being introduced to boost consumption. That boosted Chinese stocks on Friday. In the US the government has passed their spending bill, so the Trump administration can move forward on their plans. And the NVIDIA GTC conference kicks off today, known by some as the Woodstock of AI, with their CEO Jensen Huang outlining his vision for the future. And the OECD plays out its forecasts for global growth today as well. Plus, we’ll no doubt learn something new about what President Trump has planned.  A forward-looking start to the week, you might say.

Friday 14th March 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week we discovered the extent of Australia’s close relationship with the US. Not that close, it seems with the Trump administration happy to apply a 25 percent tariff on our steel and aluminium exports. Next month, maybe our GST charge will be used as an excuse for a 10%tariff on everything we export. In Europe through, it’s not just trade that is testing the US relationship. It’s defence as well. Trump wants EU nations to stand on their own and not rely on the US to provide half the hardware and ammunition.Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, says we are entering a different global order. So, what’s Australia’s place in this new world? Do we, for example, need to spend up big, just as Europe is doing, to defend ourselves from China. Sam says not, but we should rethink AUKUS and question why we have the US Airforce operating from our territory.What’s more, he says we should listen to finance markets, which move on news of tariffs, but tend to ignore geopolitics.

Friday 14th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets behaved in a classic risk-off fashion this session, with equities falling and safe-haven currencies rising. Even the US dollar came to the party.   Why? A day of bad news basically. Phil talks through it with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril. First, tariff tensions. President Trump is threatening 200 percent tariffs on alcohol from Europe in response to the EU’s retaliatory strikes.  Secondly, data. Even though the headline PPI read for the US suggested inflation is slowing, Rodrigo says it’s a different picture when you look under the hood. Finally, the ceasefire. The language coming from Putin suggests it is extremely unlikely. Today the Rengo report on Wages data is a key release, and what it will mean for the direction of the Bank of Japan.   

Thursday 13th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Trump administration applied a worldwide tariff on exports of aluminium and steel to the US effective today. The knee jerk response has varied from country to country.  Europe is enacting retaliatory measures, whereas the UK is keeping quiet and hoping for some sort of free  trade deal.  Good luck with that. NAB’s Sally Auld says Australia is sensibly avoiding an immediate response, given it constitutes a relatively small part of our total export market. But tariffs are showing signs of slowing economies. A snap survey by the Bank of Canada - who cut rates yesterday – showed households and businesses were cutting back on spending in the face of uncertainty. Repeated globally could this transmit into an economic slowdown that will see central banks ignoring short term lifts in inflation, assuming prices will fall as the economy slows.