NAB Morning Call

Monday 16th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil catches up with NAB’s Ken Crompton to break down the fallout from a cooler-than-expected 0.2% US inflation print, which sent bond yields tumbling and left the US 2-year yield at its lowest level since mid-2022. They dig into the reality of the Fed’s waiting game, the New York Fed data showing that US consumers and firms are footing 90% of the tariff bill, and why the "AI vigilantes" are continuing to eye tech stocks with a bit more scepticism. From the Bank of England’s internal split over rate hikes to a busy week ahead featuring Japan's Q4 GDP and fresh inflation numbers from the UK and Canada, it’s a deep dive into whether the global disinflation trend is truly taking hold or hitting a snag.

Friday 13th February 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Phil grills BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis on which central bank played the inflation fight better — the RBNZ with its early hammer, or the RBA with its softer touch. They tear into NZ’s slow growth, a labour market now showing 5.4% unemployment, population pressures, housing distortions, and whether China’s slowdown or Trump‑era geopolitics pose the bigger threat. Plus: can NZ keep leaning on agriculture, is tech finally a real opportunity, and how do the two neighbours stack up on growth, risks and untapped upside.

Friday 13th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets are wobbling again as the AI boom shows its darker side — soaring investment costs on one hand, and the threat of software-sector disruption on the other — dragging the NASDAQ and S&P sharply lower. Bond yields are softer, commodities are sliding, and the Aussie has dipped below 71 US cents. In the UK, GDP is technically growing but only just, while Japan enjoys a rare week of political calm that’s helped steady JGBs and lift the yen. At home, the RBA’s Sarah Hunter has doubled down on the message that full employment and inflation remain uncomfortably intertwined. And with US CPI due today, markets are bracing for whether the Fed’s disinflation path is still intact. Phil talks it all through with NAB’s Ray Attrill.

Thursday 12th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA surprise surge in Australian home loans has everyone asking whether it’s a one off policy quirk or fresh fuel for another RBA hike, while a headline grabbing jump in US payrolls looks far less convincing once you see where the jobs actually are. Add in firmer oil on Iran worries, a flat US dollar, a stronger Aussie, and the UK bracing for GDP growth that’s technically positive but barely, and you’ve got plenty for NAB’s Taylor Nugent to unpack on today’s podcast.

Wednesday 11th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGlobal markets are still grinding higher, but the real action is in bonds and currencies, with US Treasury yields tumbling after flat retail sales and softer price data, and the yen staging the day’s standout move, edging further away from the intervention zone. Commodities are drifting lower, Bitcoin continues its long slide from last year’s peak, and all eyes now turn to an unusually timed mid‑week non‑farm payrolls. At home, the NAB Business Survey shows conditions easing but confidence nudging up, capacity pressures softening, and consumer sentiment taking another hit alongside a sharp drop in building approvals. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to unpack what falling yields say about Fed expectations, why the yen is suddenly lively, and what the latest Australian data could mean for the RBA’s next move.

Tuesday 10th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGlobal markets are in a buoyant mood, with US and European equities pushing higher, the US dollar sliding and lifting the Aussie above 70.9 US cents, and commodities from gold to oil on the rise — but the real story today is at home, where Australia’s household spending remains 5% higher than a year ago. Will today’s NAB business survey continues to show strong trading conditions and high-capacity utilisation, reinforcing the question of whether the economy is simply running too hot for the RBA’s comfort. With US markets bracing for retail sales, inflation and jobs data, Japan settling after Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election win, and UK assets wobbling on political jitters, Rodrigo Catril joins us to unpack whether Australia’s resilience is now a policy problem.

Monday 9th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA huge week of US data lies ahead — payrolls, CPI and retail spending in the same week for the first time — but for now optimism is winning out, with US equities roaring back on Friday despite lingering worries over the scale of AI investment. The S&P jumped 2%, the NASDAQ a touch more, and the Dow hit a fresh high, while the US dollar slipped and commodities pushed higher, from Brent to gold to Bitcoin. Markets are still weighing softer job openings and rising claims against Fed Vice Chair Jefferson’s view that policy is already near neutral, and in Japan the likely landslide win for Sanae Takaichi raises fresh questions about how quickly the BoJ might move on rates. Closer to home, the Aussie dollar is back above 70 US cents and household spending data is due today. The gains of the previous two months are not expected to be maintained.

Friday 6th February 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This weekend we’re looking at Minotaur Capital — the global equities fund run by just two people and a whole lot of AI. Armina “Arms” Rosenberg and Thomas Rice launched the firm in late 2023 with a simple idea: replace the analyst floor with generative intelligence capable of scanning markets, news flow and pricing anomalies at a scale no human team can match. It’s worked so far — a notional million dollars at the start of 2024 would have grown to more than $1.43 million by year’s end — but the bigger question is whether this is the future of funds management, where algorithms and AI agents do the heavy lifting and humans steer the thematics. We talk to Arms about her path from JP Morgan to Atlassian to co‑founding Minotaur, how their proprietary engine finds mispriced companies, why they’ve beaten the MSCI hardly touching the Magnificent Seven, and what the next generation of AI‑driven research looks like.

Friday 6th February 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets slid again overnight as tech stocks took another hit, with Alphabet’s hefty AI‑driven capex plans spooking investors, while softer US jobs data raised fresh questions about next week’s non‑farm payrolls and the Fed’s path for rate cuts. Treasury yields fell, commodities weakened sharply, and the Aussie slipped below 69.8 US cents. In Europe, both the Bank of England and ECB held rates, even as UK inflation is expected to hit target by April and Eurozone inflation already sits below 2%. Locally, Australia’s trade balance improved, and all eyes turn to RBA Governor Michelle Bullock’s parliamentary testimony today. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins the show, failing to appreciate the cultural significance of Pascall’s Pineapple Lumps on Waitangi Day.