NAB Morning Call

Friday 26th July 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Things are changing in Japan. After decades of not much happening, suddenly everything is happening. Core inflation is up to 2.6%, the Yen is the weakest in a long time, the stock market has hit highs not seen since the eighties, and the BoJ has moved interest rates into positive territory. It all points to a win for Japan according to Harry Ishihara, a macro strategist contractor for Macrobond and Japan Exchange Group. Suddenly companies feel enabled to raise prices and offer higher wages, helping increase margins and drive investment. He calls it Japan’s Inflation Revolution. But will it last? Was this the shot in the arm the economy needed, and how much is being driven simply by a weaker Yen. What’s to stop that weakness being eroded and Japan’s competitiveness diminished? Harry provides some very useful insights into what’s driving the value of Japan’s currency and why a weaker Yen could be here to stay.

Friday 26th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA sharp turnaround in US optimism it seems, with this week’s disappointing PMIs easily overwritten by an upside surprise on GDP. Jobless claims were also down a little. The response – rising equities and falling Treasury yields. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether Goldilocks is back on the horizon, offering a faster path to cuts with minimal economic damage. It’s a very different story in Europe though, where we saw PMIs sharply lower in Germany and reaffirmed by the IFO numbers out overnight. Of course central bank decisions ultimately rest on inflation numbers, so Tokyo’s CPI and June’s US Core PCE Deflator reads will be watched keenly.

Thursday 25th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBill Dudey, former NY Fed Governor, now Bloomberg pundit, has said the FOMC needs to cut rates next week and it might already be too late to avoid a recession. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this comes from a man who had advocated staying higher for longer. His opinion certainly impacted 2 year bond yields overnight But the bigger news is the large falls in US equities, led by tech stocks, with the cost of AI and the slow delivery on promises taking the blame. PMIs came in weaker than expected, not just for Germany, where the fall was particularly pronounced, but also for US manufacturing, which might help Dudley’s arguments, but US GDP (out tonight) is expected to rise.

Wednesday 24th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAlphabet and Tesla both reported better than expected headline revenue numbers after the US close, but the mood is still cautious. The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ all closed in the red, but a 1% rise in the Russell 2000. JB Were’s Sally Auld talks about the return of rotation, with the prospect of lower rates boosting interest in the growth potential of smaller companies. And Sally points out there are only a couple of countries that are going against the idea of easing interest rates – one is Japan, who could well lift rates next week. The other is the Australia. NAB is not expecting an RBA rate hike, but comments from Michelle Bullock yesterday are getting more people thinking its possible. It’s all down to next week’s CPI number.

Tuesday 23rd July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIf markets were being driven by Trump-trade, the thought that he might have a more credible contender hasn’t had much impact. But what were we expecting? Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about whether, beyond bitcoin, the Trump-trade was a figment of our collective imaginations. Instead, the focus is back on tech, particularly as the first two of the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet and Telsa) report their earnings this time tomorrow. The surprise yesterday was a 10bp cut in China’s 1-year and 5-yea loan prime rates.  But is it too small to have much impact? 

Monday 22nd July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe breaking news this morning is that Joe Biden is stepping down from the US Presidential race and endorsing Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. Phil asks whether they’ll be a market response, or have we already been seeing it. Last week saw the dollar climbing, against falling equities and a sell-off in commodities. How much of that was down to politics and how down to the economy and the musings of central bank speakers? After a quiet start this week is heavy on important numbers, including global PMIs, US GDP and core PCE on Friday, plus a continuation of earnings season.

Friday 19th July 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Much of the world is on the road to achieving to net zero by 2050, a target which gets more challenging as each year passes. Australia is on the right path, but it isn’t leading the pack. Why Not? Phil puts the question to Rochel Hoffman, who leads Deloitte Australia’s ESG M&A practice. Despite having many rare earth mineral resources, vast quantities of land, a wealthy society, political stability and a sunny climate, Australia has been slower than most to invest in NetZero projects. The Climate Action Tracker, which is an independent scientific group that rates each country’s progress on the targets set in Paris, rates our climate finance as ‘critically insufficient’. That will change, says Rochel. We’re working through a series of constraints that have impacted the speed of the transformation. Our history with fossil fuels has been a part of the problem. Now, green technology provides a wealth of investment opportunities for a range of risk categories.

Friday 19th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equity markets fell sharply overnight. It’s not just tech stocks feeling the hurt, the weakness is spread more broadly than that, implying that concerns of an economic slowdown are outweighing the benefits of rate cuts. Rate cuts could be happening more slowly in Europe, with some in the ECB indicating that there might be only one more cut this year. NAB’s Ken Crompton returns from his holidays to discuss the market moves and the latest data, including Australian and UK employment numbers, and looking ahead to Japan’s CPI today. We also cover the Netflix earnings results, just out.

Thursday 18th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt doesn’t take Donald Trump to launch a trade war with China. The Biden administration has threatened further limits on microchip exports to China, which hit tech stocks heavily in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says currencies, meanwhile, have reacted to comments from Donald Trump, who said he’s like to see a weaker US dollar, to compete against the weak Yen and Yuan. Today we look at the latest New Zealand and UK inflation numbers, and their influence on rate cuts, as well as looking ahead to today’s employment data for Australia. And the ECB, expected to be on hold, but there’s a press conference elater, if you want to stay up for it. If not, listen in to tomorrow’s podcast and get a decent night’s sleep in the meantime.