NAB Morning Call

Friday 6th December 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Have Australians who ignored the rise of the Magnificent Seven lost out? NAB’s Gemma Dale says they will have still done pretty well with Australian equities, which have performed better than many other parts of the world, like the UK and Europe, for example. But how will investors cope with the uncertainties of the next 12 months? How do you plan for Trump’s trade policies, subsequent changes to supply chains and the rising US dollar? How do you look for winners  before they hit the big time? Or do you, as many Aussie investors tend to, simply look for opportunities and buy the dip. Phil talks to Gemma about the year we’ve been through for Australian equity investors and what the next year will bring.  

Thursday 28th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US releases non-farm payrolls data later today, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says if anything is going to shift expectations for a cut by the Fed this month it will be the upcoming CPI data. Meanwhile words from Jerome Powell, that the economy was doing better than expected, can be added to the list of reasons for a pause in the new year. A new PM for France hasn’t been decided yet but will be in the next few days. The turmoil just adds to the European woes, with more lacklustre data over the last 24 hour. And OPEC+, as expected, has pushed back the increase in production and the length of the ramp in those increases.

Wednesday 4th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s growth numbers yesterday were a bit slower than most had expected, although in-line with NAB’s expectations. Nonetheless it was below consensus and NAB’s Gavin Friend says that was brought forward expectations for a rate cut, although that could easily slip back. The short-term impact has been a weaker Aussie dollar against a US dollar which itself falling after a downside surprise on the Services ISM read overnight. A rare bit of soft US economic data, says Gavin. As we pressed record today France was going to vote on the government’s no-confidence motion, whilst Jerome Powell was taking part in a panel discussion that markets have been holding out for. We cover off some of the early take-outs from both.

Wednesday 4th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt was a hectic session for geopolitics but, as NAB’s Skye Masters discusses, it hasn’t had much impact on markets. There wasn’t much of a reaction to the imposition of martial law in Korea, which was shortly afterwards overturned by parliament, but placing a question mark over the political life of the President. France has it’s no-confidence vote today, but European uncertainty seems to be priced in. In the US markets paid more attention to the Fed’s Christopher Waller than the rise in job openings and quits. Tonight, Jerome Powell could seal-the-deal as far, as markets are concerned, for a December rate cut. Locally, Australian GDP is the key number.

Tuesday 3rd December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWill Marine Le Penne push all the way to bring down the Barnier government in France? She said on Monday she would support a n confidence vote in the government but, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, that would force a more constrained default budget, offering none of what her National Party has been fighting for.  Markets are responding to the possibility of a French government collapse this week. Elsewhere, US ISM’s overnight showed the continued strength in the US economy, raising questions about why the need to rush into cuts. Markets are expecting that if there is a rate cut this month, it’ll almost certainly be followed by a pause. Plus, what can we take out from Australian data yesterday, including stronger retail sales.

Monday 2nd December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US is back at work after a long Thanksgiving weekend for many, back just in time for the week of non-farm payroll and other US jobs data, ahead of the Fed this month. Retail sales numbers will be highlight for Australian data today, with NAB’s Tapas Strickland suggesting Friday’s business credit provided further evidence that the RBA’s rates are currently not restrictive, making cuts even less likely in the short term. Also, on Friday hotter than expected Tokyo CPI data could encourage the Bank of Japan to move faster on a rate hike. Plus, the latest download on Trump policies, threats and claims. And today could be decision day for the French budget.

Friday 29th November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.A weak Yen and low interest rates had been fuelling the Japanese Carry Trade, as retail investors – the Mrs Watanabes – prospered from higher returns overseas. They took a hit from the rising Yen in the third quarter of this year, but Harry Ishihara says they are back, just a little more cautious this time. Harry is a macro strategist for Macrobond and Japan Exchange Group. He talks to Phil about the importance of Japanese retail investors, the continued confidence in Japan’s future, with strong inward investment, and the challenges posed by the new Trump administration.

Friday 29th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe message from the RBA continues to be that there is no rush to drop rates. NAB’s Tapas Strickland highlights a chart presented by Michelle Bullock last night, which showed Australia’s interest rate compared to other leading economies, relative to the expected nominal neutral rate. And the decision on how much and when will be made by a new group next year, as the board of the RBA splits in two, with one responsible purely for monetary policy decisions. Inflation in Germany has slowed a little, but probably not enough for the ECB to make a 50bp cut. Europe continues to be in a world of worry, particularly France, where 10-year yields momentarily fell below Greek yields for the first time ever. But good news for Americans, whose Thanksgiving dinner will have been a bit cheaper this year.

Thursday 28th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA weaker dollar, falling share prices and very light trade. It’s close to the end of the month and Thanksgiving today in the US. NAB’s Ken Crompton returns rto the Morning Call to give is take on the market moves overnight on the back of largely unsurprising data from the US. There’s also discussion about Gov Orr’s presser after yesterday’s 50bp cut for the RBNZ, suggesting another big cut might be due in February. It’s the opposite message coming from the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, suggesting there’s less room for cuts from the ECB. All eyes and ears will be on the RBA’s Michelle Bullock tonight, given she is never backwards incoming forward. Will she be Talking Turkey on Thanksgiving?