NAB Morning Call

Thursday 2nd April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB's Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss the wave of optimism sweeping through global markets as speculation grows regarding a potential ceasefire in the Iran conflict. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw significant gains and oil prices dipped near $100 a barrel, the rally trimmed slightly as investors awaited a high-stakes address from President Trump. The conversation also breaks down resilient U.S. economic data, including a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing index—though Taylor notes that rising supply delivery times may reflect Middle East disruptions rather than pure demand. Additionally, the pair explore the Bank of Japan’s growing inflation expectations following the Tankan survey and a rebound in the (admittedly very choppy) Australian building approvals, painting a picture of a global economy showing surprising resilience amidst geopolitical volatility.

Wednesday 1st April 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn today’s NAB Morning Call, Rodrigo Catril joins the podcast to break down a wave of market optimism following reports that President Trump is prepared to wind down U.S. military action against Iran. While the Nasdaq surged 3.3% on the news, Rodrigo notes that the situation remains volatile as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and retaliatory threats persist from both the Houthis and Iran.Beyond the geopolitical shift, the discussion explores a rebound in China’s manufacturing PMI to 50.4 and a jump in Eurozone inflation to 2.5%, which has sparked a debate between ECB officials on whether these energy-driven shocks are short-lived. Rodrigo also points to a gradual softening in the U.S. labour market, evidenced by a decline in JOLTS job openings, as investors turn their focus toward upcoming non-farm payroll data.

Tuesday 31st March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs the Middle East conflict continues with no clear resolution in sight, global markets are increasingly recalibrating from a focus on short-term inflation spikes to the broader risks of a sustained economic slowdown. Phil discusses how this shifting narrative is pulling bond yields lower across the US, Europe, and the UK, with NAB’s Ken Crompton. They analyse the divergence between the "hawkish" inflation concerns of some central bankers and the growing fear among investors that prolonged high energy costs—like the anticipated $3 per liter fuel in Australia—will eventually crush consumer demand and business investment. 

Monday 30th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs the Middle East conflict enters its fifth week, geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, driving Brent crude back toward $112 a barrel. Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters to explore the shifting market narrative as investors weigh the immediate threat of surging inflation against the growing risk of demand destruction. The pair discuss the latest University of Michigan survey, which showed a sharp drop in consumer sentiment alongside rising inflation expectations, and examine why bond yields are fluctuating as markets struggle to price in a potentially protracted war. They also preview a critical week of data, including US payrolls and eurozone CPI, while noting the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers at the ECB and Bank of England as they move to anchor long-term inflation expectations in a highly volatile environment.

Friday 27th March 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this weekend’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil talks with Matthew Berg, co-founder of Local Residential, and Bill Halmarick, NAB’s Head of Real Estate, to explore the burgeoning "build-to-rent" sector and its potential to alleviate Australia’s housing affordability crisis. They discuss how this institutional model—common in the UK and US—offers tenants greater security through long-term leases and professional management, contrasting it with the traditional "mom and dad" investor market. The conversation also highlights NAB's ambitious commitment to provide $6 billion in financing for social and affordable housing by 2030, including innovative construction methods like modular housing and partnerships for "impact housing" that integrates diverse income groups within a single community.

Friday 27th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGeopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate market sentiment as a five-day extension to President Trump’s ultimatum fails to produce a diplomatic breakthrough, with Tehran officially rejecting US peace proposals. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to analyse the resulting market volatility, including a rise in Brent crude up to $108, The pair discusses the "fear gauge" (VIX) currently sitting below 30 and what this indicates about market expectations for a potentially prolonged conflict and discuss why central banks like the Norges Bank are already pivoting toward a more hawkish stance as global inflation forecasts are revised upward.

Thursday 26th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe path to de-escalation in the Middle East remains stalled as Tehran rejects the latest US peace proposal, issuing counter-demands that include sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and war reparations. Phil talks with NAB’s Taylor Nugent on the market’s reaction to this diplomatic deadlock, noting that while oil prices saw a temporary dip, the prospect of a protracted war continues to drive bond yields higher. There were hawkish tone from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who warned that the central bank "will not be paralyzed by hesitation" in responding to inflationary shocks. Domestically, the focus is on the latest Australian CPI data for February, which showed headline inflation easing slightly to 3.7% and trimmed mean inflation holding steady at 3.3%. These numbers will likely be eclipsed by the massive surge in fuel prices expected to hit the March print.

Wednesday 25th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGeopolitical tensions in the Middle East enter a dangerous new phase as the US deploys 3,000 troops and Iran launches fresh attacks across the region, sending Brent crude climbing toward $104 a barrel. Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters to explore how central banks are moving away from "looking through" temporary shocks toward bracing for the secondary, inflationary impacts of a protracted war. They analyze the sharp rise in bond yields and the sobering reality reflected in the latest global PMI data, which shows surging input prices and weakening consumer confidence in Europe and the US. The discussion also covers Australia’s upcoming CPI data and the finalization of the Australia-EU trade deal, somewhat overshadowed by the escalating conflict.

Tuesday 23rd March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil asks NAB’s Sally Auld if we’re seeing a TACO trade as President Trump pushes back his 48-hour ultimatum by five days, citing productive talks with Iran that the Iranians claim aren't even happening. This glimmer of a potential off-ramp has seen oil prices tumble nearly 10% and US equities rally. Bond yields have also fallen but remain somewhat elevated on the assumption central banks will continue to adopt a more hawkish tone in response to persistent inflation risks. Also, anecdotal evidence of the impact of surging input costs on business confidence, and what to expect from today’s critical global PMI data and Japanese CPI figures.