NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 10th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB’s Sally Auld discuss the roller coaster ride of oil prices, which took a breather after G7 nations hinted at tapping into their strategic reserves. While this news offered a bit of temporary relief to the markets, it’s a short-term fix and markets will be driven by how long the conflict drags on for, and how long supply is blocked through the Strait of Hormuz. They also look at the inflationary impacts for Australia, the surprising resilience of the Aussie dollar as a commodity currency, and what shifting global trends mean for central banks heading into their next round of policy meetings.

Monday 9th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe global economy is facing a volatile "double whammy" as intensifying conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices toward the $100 mark whilst the US labour market shows unexpected signs of cooling. Friday's US jobs data shocked markets with a loss of 92,000 jobs against expectations of growth, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4%. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil today to discuss how, as Israel/US and Iran engage in retaliatory strikes on critical oil and desalination infrastructure, central banks are left in a precarious position: grappling with rising inflationary pressures from energy costs while weighing the need for rate cuts to support weakening domestic economies. With US inflation data and major bond auctions on the horizon, and the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations serving as a backdrop, the "invisible hand" of the market appears increasingly gripped by geopolitical uncertainty.

Friday 6th March 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Celebrate International Women’s Day (this Sunday) with a deep dive into the senior ranks of Australian business as Phil talks with Anastasia Clarke, CFO of property group Charter Hall. Despite recent reports suggesting a decline in female finance chiefs, Anastasia offers a refreshing and candid perspective on her rise to the top, discussing the "grit and determination" required to navigate an ASX-listed career and the pivotal male mentorship that supported her along the way. From the challenges of balancing a high-stakes career with young children to the strategic shift of moving women into revenue-focused roles, this episode explores why diversity of thought isn't just a social goal—it's a driver of Charter Hall’s leap to $92 billion in funds under management. Whether you're interested in the future of the commercial property market or the "40:40:20" approach to executive leadership, this conversation is an essential listen for anyone looking to understand the modern blueprint for corporate success.

Friday 6th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFinancial markets took a sharp risk-off turn overnight as escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran dominated investor sentiment and pushed oil prices significantly higher. NAB’s Skye Masters breaks down the resulting surge in bond yields across Europe and the US, noting that central banks are pivoting their focus back to stubborn inflation risks. The conversation covers the shifting expectations for rate cuts, the impact of volatile energy supplies on the Eurozone, and a preview of tonight’s critical US non-farm payrolls report. Closer to home, they look at the softening in Australian household spending and China’s newly adjusted growth targets following the People’s Congress.

Thursday 5th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the global market's resilience amidst escalating Middle East tensions, noting gains in the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and European stocks like the DAX. They dive into the volatility of the Asian markets, specifically South Korea’s KOSPI, which saw a 14% decline following an AI-driven frenzy. Key economic indicators from the US, including strong ISM Services data and a significant rise in export orders, are balanced against a widening gap with PMI figures. They also analyse the contrasting PMI reports from China, Australia's steady 2.6% GDP growth and softening household consumption, and look ahead to today’s timely monthly update on that consumption number.

Wednesday 4th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWar escalation has torn through markets, driving oil sharply higher, smashing equities and knocking the Aussie to the bottom of the majors as global bond yields surge. With Iranian, Qatari and Iraqi output disrupted, tankers steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz and even Saudi refineries hit, the risk of a genuine energy shock has snapped into focus. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has stoked talk of a near term rate rise, even as today’s Q4 GDP is set to undershoot the Bank’s own forecasts. Europe’s hotter than expected inflation print has revived ECB hike chatter. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil for a rundown on how markets are working their way through all this, mentioning the word stagflation. Today China’s PMIs and the US services ISM will give us a taste if how things were before things got out of hand in the Middle East.

Tuesday 3rd March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril discuss the market turmoil following Operation Epic Fury, which has sent oil and gas prices soaring, with European gas prices surging more than 50% following a drone attack on Qatari production facilities. So, is this a short-term spike or a long-term inflationary threat? A massive "about-turn" in bond markets suggests a longer story, hence a shift in central bank rate-cut expectations. With President Trump facing low domestic approval for the move, the key question remains: will this conflict be resolved in weeks, or are we settling into a period of prolonged stagflation?

Monday 2nd March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to examine the market reaction to the weekend’s dramatic military strikes on Tehran. With the Straits of Hormuz effectively stalled by soaring insurance costs and geopolitical uncertainty, we analyse the immediate pressure on oil and gold alongside. Beyond the Middle East there’s the brewing "mini-Lehman" moment in the UK as mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions collapses amid fraud allegations, leaving major players like Barclays exposed. From the PBOC’s strategic move to curb the Renminbi's rise to a massive week of data—including Australian Q4 GDP, the US Payrolls report, and China’s National People’s Congress—we provide the roadmap for a week where risk is suddenly everywhere.

Friday 28th February 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil dives into the massive infrastructure powering the global AI revolution with Luke Mackinnon, Senior Vice President of NextDC and Managing Director for Asia. As tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon pour billions into data centres, NextDC is rapidly expanding its footprint to provide the "shovels" for this digital gold rush, specifically engineering high-density "AI factories" like the KL1 facility in Kuala Lumpur and TK1 in Tokyo. Mackinnon breaks down the intense technical demands of supporting the latest GPU superclusters, the high-stakes race for power and land, and why specialized Tier 4 infrastructure is the non-negotiable backbone for the next wave of sovereign and enterprise AI.