NAB Morning Call

Friday 11th September 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.As global capital expenditure on artificial intelligence climbs toward $1.8 trillion, Australia finds itself at a pivotal crossroads between world-class research and commercial execution. On this weekend’s NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie sits down with former CSIRO Chief Executive Dr. Larry Marshall to examine whether the nation is poised to pioneer high-value AI solutions or remain a passive consumer of overseas technology. While Australia boasts an impressive legacy of scientific breakthroughs—from Wi-Fi to solar cell designs—Dr. Marshall warns that a historical failure to commercialise ideas leaves local jobs and industries exposed as AI replaces entry-level roles. However, by deploying a clear "market vision" and leveraging domestic strengths in areas like photonics to slash data centre energy demands, Australia can capture genuine economic value, create augmented "superpower" jobs, and secure its strategic footing in the global AI landscape.

Friday 11th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAt a press conference overnight ECB’s Christine Lagarde said it was a ‘no brainer’ to lift rates, given the inflation pressures and a resilient economy. More is expected according to NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on this morning’s podcast. They discuss the two big moves overnight - oil prices, now well beyond $100 a barrel - and the continued rise in bond yields, with 10 year treasuries rising by 11 basis points and 30 years hitting the highest level since 2007. With no obvious driver in the day’s news flow Skye wonders whether a chunk of the moves can be put down to positioning. There will be a lot of focus on today’s moves, particularly ahead of US CPI, out tonight.

Thursday 10th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices rose further overnight as Iran fired at US navy vessels, forcing counter attacks from both sides. One Iranian official described it as an existential fight for survival for which there is no backing down. Bond yields rose sharply in the US and Europe overnight, despite Scott Bessen t’s announcement of a $6 billion buyback in 10–20-year bonds. NAB’s Sally Auld says yields rose because the size of the buyback was less than expected, whilst the same factors remain to push yields higher, including the level of debt and the competition from bond issuance from AI companies who continue to up their spending. Tonight the ECB is expected to lift rates, as markets prepare for US CPI tomorrow, with PPI data out tonight.

Wednesday 9th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil is higher because more is happening in the Middle East. That’s adding to inflation concerns. There are tensions elsewhere too- between the US and Israel (Israel has closed a UK consulate in East Jerusalem), and between the US and Canada with Canada imposing tit for tat tariffs, whilst promising closer ties with Europe. Locally the NAB Business Survey showed a move down in confidence, as did the Westpac consumer survey. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton how much falling house prices had to play in both those results. 

Tuesday 8th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTrade was thin overnight with the US on holiday, but the Yen pushed to its highest level since February, beating the US-Japan coordinated attempt to push it higher in late July. NAB’s Gavin friend says markets are assuming the BoJ will do the right thing, which would make the Yen seem undervalued. Oil is higher and could easily nudge over US$100 for Brent over the next day or two. Copper also hit a high as demand continues to outstrip supply, and traders buy ahead for fear of US tariffs coming to fruition. Today there’s a lot to focus on locally, including two interviews with RBA speakers, the NAB Business Survey and Westpac’s Consumer Sentiment report.

Monday 7th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNon-farm payrolls numbers in the US on Friday were strong, including an upward revision to the previous two months. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it is difficult to argue against the idea the labour market there is in particularly good health. That removes one reason for the Fed not to lift rates next week, so everything now rests on the CPI and PPI data this week. The US president  meanwhile argues that the Fed should be taking rates to the lowest in the world, whilst threatening to stop trade with any country they have a trade deficit with. Oil moved higher on Friday and could easily top $100 this week as tensions heighten in the Gulf, despite Presidential claims that oil traffic is close to pre-war levels.

Friday 4th September 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.It’s an uncertain world, perhaps more than ever before. Brad Carr is NAB’s Executive for Geopolitical Risk and he joins Phil to discuss the five themes that concern him. That includes the ongoing war in the Middle East and the increasing sophistication of cybercrime. The third issue is the new trade order, where global supply changes are being replaced by self-reliance and self-interest. We are also about to face the Super El Niño, impacting the Australian agricultural sector which is already struggling with higher fertiliser costs. Finally, Brad suggests increasing assertiveness from China presents a threat. There are other concerns too, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, shifts in European politics and the multifaceted risks of AI. Brad acknowledges he is often portrayed as the doomsayer at NAB, but he said the positive counter is that Australia is protected from the worst aspects of much of this, by nature of our geography, geology and political structure. And Brad outlines three areas of focus we should adopt to ensure we benefit from the uncertainty, not get dragged down by it.

Friday 4th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere might not need to be a rate hike from the Fed. That’s been the takeout from a Reuters interview overnight with the bank's Christopher Waller, who suggested there are signs of disinflation which might mean there’s less need for a policy adjustment. There was a swift response in bond markets and a weakening US dollar. There’s also been a substantial rise in the Yen. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, why? Waller’s comments make next week’s CPI figures more significant than ever and Rodrigo suggests the number to look for. Meanwhile, non-farm payrolls tonight will also be influential, with some signs that the jobs market is weakening.

Thursday 3rd September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUnease in the Gulf continues to push oil prices higher today and fears of persistent inflation mean bond yields continue to rise in Europe. expectations for rate hikes, eve n as they moderate a little in the US. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phi to talk through a mixed session, influenced by a hawkish Bank of Canada, a dovish RBNZ and words from the fed’s John Williams suggesting inflationary pressures in the US might be easing. Meanwhile yesterday’s stronger than expected GDP numbers for Australia reinforce NAB’s view that the RBA will hike later this month.