NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 25th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis morning NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss Scott Bessent’s plan to isolate Iran economically and how it could impact China. There’s also been market reaction to Bessent’s plan to fund some of his bond buybacks by drawing down surplus funds from the Treasury account at the Fed. The threat of a 50 percent tariff on car exports from Canada is the latest iteration from the ongoing trade war, but it won’t be imposed till well after the mid-terms. Today is quiet data wise, giving you more time to read the RBA minutes!

Monday 24th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could dominate finance news this week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss his two bg challenges. First, will we get more of the Treasury Twist -selling long date bonds to bring down yields? More immediately, what’s the plan to impose the massive economic sanctions on Iran that President Trump is promising, and will that mean fresh tariffs on China? A slice of Canada’s exports are now tariffed at 50% as trade talks with the US broke down on Friday. And they talk through the week ahead, which will be a busy one for Australian data.

Friday 14th August 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.With the UK and Europe facing an unprecedented mix of geopolitical, environmental, and fiscal strains, is the region still a safe bet for global investors? On this weekend's episode of the NAB Morning Call, Phil sits down with Panmure Liberum Chief Economist Simon French to unpack the escalating pressures of lingering war, crippling European droughts, and skyrocketing debt. As standard UK inflation holds well above target and 10-year gilt yields hit multi-decade highs, can Prime Minister Andy Burnham deliver on ambitious spending promises around defence, social care, and tax relief without terrifying the bond market? Will a turn toward "buy British" public procurement and North Sea energy approvals offer a genuine structural bridge, or are protectionist measures bound to drag down broader growth? And as extreme weather threatens European food supplies while the US Treasury aggressively intervenes in currency markets, is Europe offering a clever valuation hedge against Wall Street—or simply a slower path through the storm?

Friday 21st August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing harder on bringing bond yields down, saying he needs to ensure ‘more orderly trading’. That is taken to mean even more buybacks, with a plan expected today or Monday on the scale and shape of it. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to discuss how the market is taking to it. Oil traders meanwhile have pushed prices higher as the US President promises economic warfare against any country trading with Iran, with China presumably the main focus, but no details yet beyond a social post. Gavin also discusses with Phil yesterday’s softer than expected Australian employment numbers, and they look ahead to today, including the flash PMIs for Europe and the US.

Thursday 20th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US has announced plans to buyback a greater volume of longer dated bonds. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says this is a fairly standard operation that has been used to manage liquidity, but this time it’s to be used on a larger scale with the aim of reducing longer dated yields. There has been a swift response, including a sizeable fall in the US dollar. Meanwhile Moderna shares have spiked as their melanoma treatment passes a significant milestone, and Alphabet raised AU$5.5 billion yesterday, in Australia’s biggest ever corporate issuance. With Australian wages and labour market data, plus UK CPI, Phil and Taylor have plenty to talk about.

Wednesday 19th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhilst the middle East has been a preoccupation for many of late, the growing concern now shifts to bond yields, which have been steadily rising, with 30-year yields in the US breaking a multi decade high again. Phil puts it to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril that this is not just inflation concerns, given real yields are also rising. Rodrigo talks through the other market concerns, including concerns about governments’ ongoing fiscal commitments. This is getting passed on to equity markets the last few sessions because the rising cost of borrowing will hit those big-tech firms with big borrowing commitments. They a also look at UK data, words from the ECB and look ahead to today’s wages data for Australia. What’s the sweet spot we should be looking for?

Tuesday 18th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt wasn’t a positive start to the week. Equities are lower, bond yields higher, reaching multi -decade highs at the long end in many places, with more evidence that the Iran situation is going to drag on. Activity data from China didn’t help. But it’s not all gloom. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to talk through the latest data from the US, China, Japan and Canada, and to look ahead to today’s UK jobs and wages data.

Monday 17th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s a little less optimism around according to Friday’s University of Michigan consumer survey. Retail sales were also a disappointment, so the US finished the week with shares down, bond yields higher and oil prices higher. President Trump told the American people they should be prepared to pay more for gasoline in exchange for control over Iran’s nuclear ambitions but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, that doesn’t seem to be helping him in the opinion polls. This week it’ll be interesting to see how the US performs in the latest PMI measures, contrasted with Europe which seems to be showing a little more hope lately.

Friday 7th August 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.As massive capital expenditure pours into artificial intelligence, the narrative is rapidly shifting from speculative equity gains to a major structural opportunity across debt and credit markets. This week Phil is joined by NAB’s Head of Credit Strategy, Peter Fullerton, to explore why credit markets might offer a far safer, cash-flow-backed alternative to navigating a potential tech equity bubble. Peter explains that while tech hyperscalers are turning free cash flow negative to fund relentless CapEx—causing corporate debt spreads to widen—they still enter debt markets with resilient, high-grade balance sheets that shield bondholders far better than the dot-com era ever did. Closer to home, the focus turns to the physical infrastructure build-out: how Australia's expanding data centre footprint and transmission grid rollouts are creating high-yielding, long-tenor, investment-grade paper backed by tier-one tenants. Are equity markets ignoring the monetization wall ahead, and is local credit the smartest way to extract yield from the AI wave without risking the downside of an equity reckoning?