NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 9th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets with any China connection have responded negatively to news from the National Development Reform Commission. An announcement was expected, and most will have assumed it would include a large swag of spending from the three trillion Yuan that was believed to have been earmarked for fiscal stimulus. But, as NAB’s Ken Crompton discusses with Phil, all they did was brought forward 200 billion Yuan from next year’s budget. They also discuss yesterday’s NAB business survey and look ahead to the RBNZ today. A big cut is expected, but will there be another one next time round?

Tuesday 8th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday markets are responding to a mix of adjustments to expectations for Fred rate cuts, alongside continued uncertainty about developments in the Middle East. Late in the day in the US a judge has added to downward moves in equities by ruling that Alphabet cannot block other marketplace providers from competing with the Play Store. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril takes Phil through the moves overnight and looks ahead to a Quadrifactor (yes that’s right) of local news. Plus, possibly news of government support from China today.

Friday 4th October 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Gold has traditionally been seen as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Yet, in the last few weeks we’ve seen gold repeatedly hitting new highs, even as inflation recedes. The response to the unrest in the Middle East this week hasn’t had the marked impact you might have expected. Gold has been higher at times when the situation has been more contained. So, what is the driving force behind rising Gold prices? John Reade, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, says the price has been driven by purchases from emerging markets, many of whom want to rely less on the US dollar. Phil asks if he’s talking about the BRICs nations, who reportedly want to develop their own gold-backed currency. It’s a fascinating discussion about where gold price growth is coming from and how long it will remain elevated.

Friday 4th October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil has risen sharply this morning after Joe Biden was asked about is support for an Israeli attack, if it was to target Iran’s oil facilities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the US President didn’t really answer the question, but it was enough for investors to fear that this was a scenario that could play out. Elsewhere, markets responded to an unexpected jump in the US services ISM, and surprisingly dovish remarks from the BoE governor that’s heightened expectations for more immediate cuts from the Bank of England Without doubt, though, the most significant news is yet to come - the latest US payrolls data, which could reinforce or deflect market expectations for another 50bp cut at an FOMC meeting before Christmas.

Thursday 3rd October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday, Phil talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about two hawks who seem to have metamorphosed into something a bit more dove-like. First, the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, who has just about confirmed a rate cut for this month. Secondly, the BoJ’s Governor Ueda who seems to be happy to toe the line of the new Prime Minister. The prospect of no rate hike any time soon, and the questions it raises about the independence of the central bank, has seen the Yen taking a big hit. Looking ahead, the US Services ISM will be the key data piece, whilst we keep a watching brief on developments in the Middle East.

Wednesday 2nd October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets moved swiftly into classic risk-off territory as Iran started firing missiles into Israeli airspace. Early reports suggest minimal damage and casualties, and markets retreated a little. NAB’s Skye Masters says its often the case with significant geopolitical events that the instant reaction is tempered somewhat as more news emerges. Perhaps a broadening conflict will have a more lasting impact on oil. The news did overshadow the strong JOLTs data in the US, which showed more job openings. Australia’s retail sales numbers were also stronger than expected, but it is just one survey and the ABS says warmer weather in August is partially responsible. Meanwhile BNZ has revised its forecasts for rate cuts by the RBNZ, predicting two 50bp cuts before Christmas. The US Vice Presidential debate Is on today, late morning Australia time.

Tuesday 1st October 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSome of the biggest moves yesterday were hardly surprises. The sharp rise in Chinese equities and the fall in Japan. On China, NAB’s Gavin Friend wonders whether markets are too optimistic and whether there’s a pushing on a string element to some of the reforms there. US equities finished higher, having spent much of the session in the red, whilst there were further moves up in bond yields. Gain says there’s some commentary on Jerome Powell winding back on rate cut expectations, when really he was simply reiterating the need to wait and see the dat. That data starts today, with the JOLTs job opening numbers in the US. Australian retail sales will be watched keenly today and survey data for New Zealand could held determine whether the RBNZ goes for a 25bp or 50bpcut next week. Also, NAB has moved forward its forecasts of when the RBA will cut. Listen in for the latest prediction.

Monday 30th September 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhat impact will attacks in the Middle East have on markets now? Israel is working hard to neutralise Hezbollah and other Iranian proxy combatants, with attacks on Lebanon and Yemen. It’s the first question Phil put to NAB’s Tapas Strickland on this morning’s podcast. We know there will be a strong response to the election of Japan’s new LDP, with Shigeru Ishiba becoming the new Prime Minister from Tuesday. But what does it mean for the Bank of Japan? They also discuss the latest US PCE data and why markets are expecting a faster rate of cuts than the Fed, as well as looking ahead to European inflation data, Australian deposits and retails ales and US non-farm payrolls at the end of a fairly busy week.