Share

cover art for Inflation eases and fears subside

NAB Morning Call

Inflation eases and fears subside

Thursday 16th January 2025


NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB


The biggest news this morning, the ceasefire in the Middle East, has had virtually no market response. Instead, bonds and equities have rallied on the positive CPI news from the US overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the softer number has increased the prospect of more than one cut from the Fed this year. Bond yields have fallen markedly on both sides of the Atlantic. Today Australian’s employment data will be the key area of focus, particularly after the surprise fall in the unemployment rate last time. Will today’s data lead the RBA to conclude the labour market is too tight, or will they adjust their view of where the non-inflationary rate is?

More episodes

View all episodes

  • 30. Have markets stopped believing?

    17:06||Season 9, Ep. 30
    Monday 17th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou’d have thought, perhaps, that the threat of tariffs on any country charging GST on US imports (most OECD countries) would have had a string market reaction at the end of the week, but it didn’t. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether markets have stopped believing him and assumes all such proclamations and merely a prelude to some sort of negotiated deal. The US dollar, meanwhile, continues to weaken and is now actually lower than when the President  returned to the Oval Office. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates tomorrow, but Ray says it’s not as a clear a cut as markets are suggesting.
  • 29. Weekend Edition: The Irvine Fix: Simplicity, Productivity and Confidence

    17:43||Season 9, Ep. 29
    Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil talks with NAB's CEO, Andrew Irvine, discussing the uncertainty of international trade and the slow road to lower inflation. What impact does he think a global trade war (if it gets to that) could have on Australia? And what can we expect after the assumed RBA rate cut next week? The NAB chief has spent some time in Europe and talks through how our economic fundamentals stack up against the UK and Europe. Whilst Australia has many natural advantages, he points to the lack of productivity growth as the biggest issue we face. Confidence is also key he says, because that drives investment decisions.There’s also discussion about scam regulation. Phil points to the UK where banks are obliged (to an extent) to refund scam victims. Do we need the same approach or are there more significant ways of reducing the problem, particularly as AI threatens to make the issue worse.Listen in for Andrew Irvine’s take on the economy and the prospects for the year ahead.
  • 28. Trump’s Big Day includes VAT

    18:41||Season 9, Ep. 28
    Friday 14th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has announced that his reciprocal tariffs could start as soon as April. The surprise has been that he is not just looking at the topline balance of trade. He considers a VAT imposed on American goods as an impost that needs to be countered. That could be bad news for the EU, the UK, Australia and other countries who have favoured indirect taxation higher income tax. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’ll be bad news from Europe, where shares rallied today on the hope that peace-deal for Ukraine will see energy costs come down. Meanwhile, US retail sales are out later, will this add to the watering down of American exceptionalism that we’ve seen this year?
  • 27. Weaker dollar, rising inflation, falling US shares. Not so rock n’ roll America.

    16:22||Season 9, Ep. 27
    Thursday 13th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump posted on Truth Social that the Fed should lower interest rates to go hand in hand with tariffs, adding, “lets Rock and Roll, America!!!” It hasn’t unnerved Jerome Powell who was giving his testimony the House Economics Committee. His case for moving cautiously was evidenced by US inflation data which ticked unexpectedly higher hitting the dollar and US equities. JBWere’s Sally Auld says today is another day where markets have reversed their enthusiasm late last year for US exceptionalism. It was a strong day for the Euro and European equities, though, thanks to a positive phone call between Trump and Putin and hopes that the end is in sight for the Ukraine war. But, obviously, way too early to assume too much.
  • 26. EU says ‘Back atcha!’ Is Australia exempt?

    18:16||Season 9, Ep. 26
    Wednesday 12th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Trump administration is pushing ahead with 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium. Australia still hopes it will be exempt, but there are no guarantees and, in any case, NAB’s Taylor Nugent argues there will be second-order impacts as the tariffs hit China. The EU meanwhile has promised swift retaliation, with the various trade ministers meeting today to map out their approach. Curiously, European equities are doing somewhat better than the US. The US dollar has also weakened, despite the President’s promise that the tariffs will make America rich again. The NAB Business Survey showed a slight rise in confidence, as business conditions softened. The latest small business survey in the US also back tracked a little. Today the main focus, apart from tariff news, is the latest setoff US CPI numbers.
  • 25. Trump - a man of steel (and aluminium)

    17:03||Season 9, Ep. 25
    Tuesday 11th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTariffs could be back, with Donald Trump warning of 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the US. That would hit Mexico and Canada particularly hard, just as they thought they were off the hook (for now at least). But NAB’s Gavin Friend says there hasn’t been much more news on this since the President made the announcement on Sair Force One on Sunday. There’s some discussion about the three different classes of tariffs Trump could deploy and whether regions like Europe could be in the firing line. Gavin suggests a string representation of the new US administration at events in Europe this week could be part of a fact-finding mission to guide policy. Meanwhile, markets are positively sanguine, as they wait the next chapter in Trump’s trade plan.
  • 24. The Empire Strikes Back

    15:15||Season 9, Ep. 24
    Monday 10th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday China’s retaliatory measures against the US take effect and it seems unlikely that the event will pass without comment and threats from the US President. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says Trump might also elaborate on his plans for other regions, such as the EU. Meanwhile jobs numbers from the US on Friday has pushed back expectations around the timing of cuts by the Fed, reinforced by a rise in inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey on Friday. Aside from tariff news it’s a relatively quiet week, although it’ll be interested to see how Jerome Powell faces two days of questions from parliamentarians this week,
  • 23. Weekend Edition: 2025:  Less growth, but still lots of opportunity

    28:07||Season 9, Ep. 23
    Friday 31st Janaury 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Last year was a stellar year for growth. Kylie Willment, chief investment officer at Mercer, says they provided a 14 percent return for their superfunds in2024. She highlights a number of opportunities for this year. including growth in private markets. But how will she weather the uncertainty of a Trump administration, where radical trade policies can be implemented quickly? Will Mercer be shying away from investments in areas likely to attract tariffs, like Europe for example? And is AI a technology that will continue to dominate? Do you invest more in it, or diversity away from it? Kylie says we can ‘t expect to see the same level of growth this year, but is she willing to have a stab in the dark and predict the sort of returns we could see?ase note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
  • 22. US Jobs Day, Bad News Day for Britain

    13:26||Season 9, Ep. 22
    Friday 7th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNon-farms payrolls data is released later today in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through some of this week’s other jobs-related data ahead of this key release. Meanwhile, good and bad news from the UK. The Bank of England cut rates by 25bp.Two members of the board wanted to go further. At the same time the bank cut its growth forecast and expects inflation to rise, extending the journey to their 2 percent target.