NAB Morning Call

Thursday 12th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the intensifying tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian attacks on merchant vessels and the threat of naval mines have effectively halted all shipping traffic. Despite a massive release of 400 million barrels of oil from IEA reserves, supply fears have pushed Brent crude toward $92 a barrel, with Iran warning the west should prepare for $200 oil. So, how is this energy shock complicating the global inflation outlook, specifically forcing a shift in NAB’s forecast to include consecutive RBA rate hikes in March and May to combat mounting domestic capacity constraints.

Wednesday 11th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Skye Masters says there’s been a wave of optimism in global markets, driven by President Trump’s comments on the potential end of the Israel-Iran conflict. It was also an historic day for corporate bond issuance in the US. The tide could be turning now though, as oil prices start to rise again this morning. Phil and Skye also examine the RBA’s hawkish stance following Andrew Hauser’s recent comments, and the latest results from the NAB Business Survey, which shows easing confidence amidst persistent capacity constraints. Finally, they look at China’s surprisingly strong trade data and the softening demand seen in the latest US Treasury bond auctions. US CPI tonight would normally be significant to markets, but it’s likely to be overtaken by events in the Middle East.

Tuesday 10th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB’s Sally Auld discuss the roller coaster ride of oil prices, which took a breather after G7 nations hinted at tapping into their strategic reserves. While this news offered a bit of temporary relief to the markets, it’s a short-term fix and markets will be driven by how long the conflict drags on for, and how long supply is blocked through the Strait of Hormuz. They also look at the inflationary impacts for Australia, the surprising resilience of the Aussie dollar as a commodity currency, and what shifting global trends mean for central banks heading into their next round of policy meetings.

Monday 9th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe global economy is facing a volatile "double whammy" as intensifying conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices toward the $100 mark whilst the US labour market shows unexpected signs of cooling. Friday's US jobs data shocked markets with a loss of 92,000 jobs against expectations of growth, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4%. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil today to discuss how, as Israel/US and Iran engage in retaliatory strikes on critical oil and desalination infrastructure, central banks are left in a precarious position: grappling with rising inflationary pressures from energy costs while weighing the need for rate cuts to support weakening domestic economies. With US inflation data and major bond auctions on the horizon, and the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations serving as a backdrop, the "invisible hand" of the market appears increasingly gripped by geopolitical uncertainty.

Friday 6th March 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Celebrate International Women’s Day (this Sunday) with a deep dive into the senior ranks of Australian business as Phil talks with Anastasia Clarke, CFO of property group Charter Hall. Despite recent reports suggesting a decline in female finance chiefs, Anastasia offers a refreshing and candid perspective on her rise to the top, discussing the "grit and determination" required to navigate an ASX-listed career and the pivotal male mentorship that supported her along the way. From the challenges of balancing a high-stakes career with young children to the strategic shift of moving women into revenue-focused roles, this episode explores why diversity of thought isn't just a social goal—it's a driver of Charter Hall’s leap to $92 billion in funds under management. Whether you're interested in the future of the commercial property market or the "40:40:20" approach to executive leadership, this conversation is an essential listen for anyone looking to understand the modern blueprint for corporate success.

Friday 6th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFinancial markets took a sharp risk-off turn overnight as escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran dominated investor sentiment and pushed oil prices significantly higher. NAB’s Skye Masters breaks down the resulting surge in bond yields across Europe and the US, noting that central banks are pivoting their focus back to stubborn inflation risks. The conversation covers the shifting expectations for rate cuts, the impact of volatile energy supplies on the Eurozone, and a preview of tonight’s critical US non-farm payrolls report. Closer to home, they look at the softening in Australian household spending and China’s newly adjusted growth targets following the People’s Congress.

Thursday 5th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the global market's resilience amidst escalating Middle East tensions, noting gains in the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and European stocks like the DAX. They dive into the volatility of the Asian markets, specifically South Korea’s KOSPI, which saw a 14% decline following an AI-driven frenzy. Key economic indicators from the US, including strong ISM Services data and a significant rise in export orders, are balanced against a widening gap with PMI figures. They also analyse the contrasting PMI reports from China, Australia's steady 2.6% GDP growth and softening household consumption, and look ahead to today’s timely monthly update on that consumption number.

Wednesday 4th March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWar escalation has torn through markets, driving oil sharply higher, smashing equities and knocking the Aussie to the bottom of the majors as global bond yields surge. With Iranian, Qatari and Iraqi output disrupted, tankers steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz and even Saudi refineries hit, the risk of a genuine energy shock has snapped into focus. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has stoked talk of a near term rate rise, even as today’s Q4 GDP is set to undershoot the Bank’s own forecasts. Europe’s hotter than expected inflation print has revived ECB hike chatter. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil for a rundown on how markets are working their way through all this, mentioning the word stagflation. Today China’s PMIs and the US services ISM will give us a taste if how things were before things got out of hand in the Middle East.

Tuesday 3rd March 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril discuss the market turmoil following Operation Epic Fury, which has sent oil and gas prices soaring, with European gas prices surging more than 50% following a drone attack on Qatari production facilities. So, is this a short-term spike or a long-term inflationary threat? A massive "about-turn" in bond markets suggests a longer story, hence a shift in central bank rate-cut expectations. With President Trump facing low domestic approval for the move, the key question remains: will this conflict be resolved in weeks, or are we settling into a period of prolonged stagflation?