Share

cover art for Cool Jobs, Majority Lost

NAB Morning Call

Cool Jobs, Majority Lost

Season 8, Ep. 122

Wednesday 5th June 2024


NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB


Bond markets continue their rally, with yields down again this morning. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s in part down to the JOLTS data in the US overnight, which showed job openings slowing. That’s pushed forward expectations for Fed rate cuts slightly. He also points to the election result in India, which saw the PM lose his majority, which could impact future growth and, therefore, energy demand. We’ve seen commodity prices coming down again, hitting the Aussie dollar. Today we get Australia’s GDP for Q1. What should we expect? And could the bank of Canada be the first G7 central bank to cut rates in this cycle? We’ll find out later.

More episodes

View all episodes

  • 163. Markets cautious in the heart of earnings season

    16:18
    Wednesday 24th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAlphabet and Tesla both reported better than expected headline revenue numbers after the US close, but the mood is still cautious. The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ all closed in the red, but a 1% rise in the Russell 2000. JB Were’s Sally Auld talks about the return of rotation, with the prospect of lower rates boosting interest in the growth potential of smaller companies. And Sally points out there are only a couple of countries that are going against the idea of easing interest rates – one is Japan, who could well lift rates next week. The other is the Australia. NAB is not expecting an RBA rate hike, but comments from Michelle Bullock yesterday are getting more people thinking its possible. It’s all down to next week’s CPI number.
  • 162. Less Trump trade, more tech

    11:53
    Tuesday 23rd July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIf markets were being driven by Trump-trade, the thought that he might have a more credible contender hasn’t had much impact. But what were we expecting? Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about whether, beyond bitcoin, the Trump-trade was a figment of our collective imaginations. Instead, the focus is back on tech, particularly as the first two of the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet and Telsa) report their earnings this time tomorrow. The surprise yesterday was a 10bp cut in China’s 1-year and 5-yea loan prime rates.  But is it too small to have much impact? 
  • 161. Bye Bye Biden

    16:32
    Monday 22nd July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe breaking news this morning is that Joe Biden is stepping down from the US Presidential race and endorsing Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. Phil asks whether they’ll be a market response, or have we already been seeing it. Last week saw the dollar climbing, against falling equities and a sell-off in commodities. How much of that was down to politics and how down to the economy and the musings of central bank speakers? After a quiet start this week is heavy on important numbers, including global PMIs, US GDP and core PCE on Friday, plus a continuation of earnings season.
  • 160. Weekend Edition: Investing on the Road to Net Zero – Why Aren’t We Leading?

    23:18
    Friday 19th July 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Much of the world is on the road to achieving to net zero by 2050, a target which gets more challenging as each year passes. Australia is on the right path, but it isn’t leading the pack. Why Not? Phil puts the question to Rochel Hoffman, who leads Deloitte Australia’s ESG M&A practice. Despite having many rare earth mineral resources, vast quantities of land, a wealthy society, political stability and a sunny climate, Australia has been slower than most to invest in NetZero projects. The Climate Action Tracker, which is an independent scientific group that rates each country’s progress on the targets set in Paris, rates our climate finance as ‘critically insufficient’. That will change, says Rochel. We’re working through a series of constraints that have impacted the speed of the transformation. Our history with fossil fuels has been a part of the problem. Now, green technology provides a wealth of investment opportunities for a range of risk categories.
  • 159. Are equity markets looking more at a downturn than rate cuts?

    16:36
    Friday 19th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equity markets fell sharply overnight. It’s not just tech stocks feeling the hurt, the weakness is spread more broadly than that, implying that concerns of an economic slowdown are outweighing the benefits of rate cuts. Rate cuts could be happening more slowly in Europe, with some in the ECB indicating that there might be only one more cut this year. NAB’s Ken Crompton returns from his holidays to discuss the market moves and the latest data, including Australian and UK employment numbers, and looking ahead to Japan’s CPI today. We also cover the Netflix earnings results, just out.
  • 168. Pre-Trump Trade Battles and Currency Fears

    17:47
    Thursday 18th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt doesn’t take Donald Trump to launch a trade war with China. The Biden administration has threatened further limits on microchip exports to China, which hit tech stocks heavily in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says currencies, meanwhile, have reacted to comments from Donald Trump, who said he’s like to see a weaker US dollar, to compete against the weak Yen and Yuan. Today we look at the latest New Zealand and UK inflation numbers, and their influence on rate cuts, as well as looking ahead to today’s employment data for Australia. And the ECB, expected to be on hold, but there’s a press conference elater, if you want to stay up for it. If not, listen in to tomorrow’s podcast and get a decent night’s sleep in the meantime.
  • 167. US retail runs hot and inflation day for many

    17:35
    Wednesday 17th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS retail numbers came in stronger than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this could delay any moves by the Fed? Certainly, equity markets ae banking on cuts coming soon, with the rotation in stocks continuing and another strong session for the Russell 2000. Today the focus is on CPI. We’ve just had it for Canada, who seem to have it under control, and later we get it for the UK, where services inflation is putting up a fight, and New Zealand, where the economy is hanging out for a rate cut. 
  • 166. Powell eyes labour market, equity markets eye Trump friendly stocks

    16:00
    Tuesday 16th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets are showing some adjustment to the prospect of a Trump presidency, with oil producers and gun makers doing well, renewables falling and Bitcoin up almost 6% today. Bond markets are still more responsive to Fed-speak. NAB’s S kye Masters gives Phil her take-outs from Jerome Powell's interview at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. and another session seeing the yield curve ending steeper. Inflation data is out for Canada tonight, after a business survey showed further weakness in the economy. They also discuss the slump in New Zealand’s PMI’s and more data showing the extent of the China slowdown. Although many are expecting Chinese authorities to announce e very little new in their Third Plenum today, can they really sit by and wait?
  • 165. Is Trump now a shoo-in for the Presidency?

    15:46
    Monday 15th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe assassination attempt against Donald Trump on Saturday is likely to bolster his support, ahead of his GOP official nomination this week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells Phil that betting markets have shifted further in favour of a Republican win. So, will we see much market impact as markets re-open today? Markets on Friday were driven by a hjgher than expected PPI read, at odds with the weaker inflation numbers earlier in the week. Phil asks how this has changed market pricing for rate cuts. They also look at Friday’s US banks earnings, China’s trade data over the weekend. Plus, what is the Third Plenum and why should we pay attention to it?