IFS Zooms In: The Economy

Today, we’re setting the stage for a key moment in UK politics — the upcoming spending review, expected this November. The spending review will set some £600 billion of departmental budgets from April 2025 onwards, and will be a crucial moment for the next government to lay out its priorities and plans for public services. How should the incoming government go about doing the next spending review? How can the government make sure they deliver on their priorities? And will they be constrained by the much talked about ‘treasury orthodoxy’?To help us answer these questions, we're joined by two people who have been at the heart of government - David Gauke, a lawyer and former MP who served in the Treasury under David Cameron and Theresa May’s governments and Giles Wilkes, a senior fellow at the Institute for Government and former special adviser to Theresa May and Vince Cable. Try our tool: https://ifs.org.uk/election-2024/be-chancellorFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

We often hear about government debt in the headlines. Currently the UK government owes around £2.65 trillion, nearly 100% of UK GDP - the value of all the goods and services produced in the UK in a year. How has the debt level grown? Should we aspire to reduce the debt? And do we need to worry about high debt to GDP ratios?Joining us today to answer all these questions and more, is David Miles, Professor of Financial Economics at Imperial College Business School, a member of the OBR Budget Responsibility Committee and former member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England.Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

In his Spring Budget, the Chancellor announced a 2% cut to National Insurance, amidst other measures on tax and spending.What will the impact of the measures be? How will it affect living standards? And what choices face the next Parliament?Joining us today are Helen Miller, Deputy Director at IFS and Ben Zaranko, Senior Research Economist at IFS.Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

Since the pandemic, the size the NHS waiting list has been in the headlines almost constantly. At the start of 2023, Rishi Sunak committed to decreasing the size of the waiting list as one of his ‘five priorities’, and since then it has actually gone up. So today, we’re going to dive into the NHS waiting list - what is it? How big is it? And is there a credible plan to get it back down?Joining us to answer those questions are Ben Zaranko and Max Warner, IFS economists who have recently published a report on the NHS waiting list.Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

Over recent months, you may have seen local authorities warning that they are facing a funding crisis. Since 2021, six local authorities have declared themselves effectively bankrupt, and many other local authorities have reported that they may soon be forced to do the same.How did we end up here? Why are local councils facing funding pressures? And what can government do to help them?Joining us to answer these questions are Tony Travers, a professor in the Department of Government at LSE and expert on local government, and David Phillips, Head of Devolved and Local Government Finance at IFS. Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

Income tax and National Insurance Contributions are our biggest taxes. Together they raise almost half of all tax revenues. National Insurance Contributions were cut at the start of the year, but we’re in the middle of a multi-year freeze in tax thresholds that will amount to a tax rise of over £40 billion by the time it’s finished. And these are just the latest in a string of changes in how we tax personal incomes.From cliff edges and personal allowances, to Scotland's 6-band income tax system and The Beatles' scheme to minimise their tax, we cover all things income tax.To do that, we're joined by Helen Miller, Deputy Director at IFS and head of our tax sector, and Dan Neidle, a tax lawyer and founder of Tax Policy Associates.Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

As we enter the new year, we take a look-ahead at what to expect in 2024.What will happen with the cost of living crisis? What might the Chancellor announce in his Spring Budget? What should we be looking out for during an election?This week, Paul is joined by colleagues Ben Zaranko, Helen Miller and Carl Emmerson to take a look at the stories which will define 2024.Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

With an ageing population, the UK faces a series of significant challenges with regard to its state pension. The OBR estimates that spending on the state pension, pension credit and winter fuel payment is expected to rise by 1.2% of national income (£32 billion per year in today’s terms) by 2050.How does the state pension work? What are the problems with it? And how can we reform it to work more effectively?In our final episode of the year, Paul is joined by Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director at IFS and Head of the Retirement, Savings, and Ageing sector, and Baroness Ros Altmann, a life peer, pensions expert and former Pensions Minister.Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

Inheritance tax is arguably the UK’s most unpopular tax - a recent YouGov poll found that just 20% of people deemed inheritance tax ‘fair’. Yet most people are unaffected by it - only a minority of estates currently pay inheritance tax. In this episode, Paul Johnson is joined by Arun Advani and David Sturrock to discuss the intricacies of inheritance tax. They cover the inequality inherent in the current system, the distortion of economic incentives resulting from exemptions, the small percentage of estates that actually pay the tax, and how it affects to social mobility. Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership