Hold Your Fire!

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s president, Comfort Ero, and Sahel director Jean-Hervé Jezequel. He first speaks with Comfort about her recent visit to Mali’s capital, Bamako, and her reflections on the diverging political trajectories of Sahelian countries. Richard then turns to Jean-Hervé for a closer look at Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, which formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) after breaking away from the regional bloc ECOWAS last year. They examine the sovereignty narrative promoted by the military regimes and the risk of growing public frustration as economic and security conditions stagnate. They also talk about the jihadist coalition JNIM, which has stepped up attacks on towns and cities in the region. They explore the group’s goals, leadership and the, for now, seemingly remote prospect of talks as military leaders prioritise military operations. Finally, they touch on how the AES countries’ foreign relations may evolve amid shifting regional dynamics.For more, check out our EU Watchlist entry “Defining a New Approach to the Sahel’s Military-led States” and our Sahel project page.

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran project director, about Israel’s strikes on Iran, which badly damaged nuclear and military sites and killed senior military officials. They discuss the scale of the attacks and their aims, focusing on whether they were primarily about setting back Iran’s nuclear program or weakening its regime. They also talk through how Iran might respond and what further escalation would look like. They explore how the crisis may affect nuclear diplomacy between Washington and Tehran and what options the Trump administration and Middle East actors may have to prevent the situation from spiralling further out of control.For more, check out our Iran country page.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Ivan Briscoe about the Trump administration’s Latin America policy, responses from the region and the future of Washington’s influence.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Latin America Program Director Renata Segura and Senior Policy Director Ivan Briscoe to look at how the Trump administration is recalibrating U.S. policy toward Latin America. They examine ideological divisions within Trump’s team between officials promoting a confrontational stance toward states like Venezuela and more pragmatic, transactional elements focused on curbing migration and drug flows. They also explore Washington’s approaches to regional hotspots, including Haiti, and assess how Latin American leaders are adjusting their strategies in reaction to shifting U.S. policies. Finally, they discuss the future of U.S. influence in a region where China is increasingly viewed as an important partner.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Latin America & Caribbean program page.

Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode on DR Congo from Crisis Group's The Horn podcast.In this episode, Alan Boswell is joined by Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s Great Lakes project director, to discuss the state of the war in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. They discuss the extent of the Rwanda-backed M23’s territorial gains in eastern Congo and why the group’s military advances halted. They discuss Rwanda’s motives and objectives, the state of Rwanda-Burundi relations, and Uganda’s positioning inside Congo. They also delve into how the crisis has affected President Félix Tshisekedi’s grip on power and the re-emergence of former President Joseph Kabila as an opposition figure. Finally, they discuss why the various African peace initiatives lost steam, the new Qatari and American peace efforts, and how to analyse this new era of peacemaking.For more, check out Richard’s recent Analyst’s Notebook entry “A New Great Lakes Peace Pledge Marks Progress but Questions Remain” and our DR Congo country page. 

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s experts Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi, Max Rodenbeck and Rob Blecher to discuss Israel’s new ground offensive in Gaza and its contentious efforts to take over control of aid distribution amid a deepening humanitarian crisis. Richard first speaks to Mairav, Amjad and Max about “Operation Gideon’s Chariots”, Israel’s military campaign that appears aimed at fragmenting Gaza territorially while linking military operations to the management of humanitarian aid. They examine how the war is affecting Israel’s domestic politics and whether public sentiment is shifting. They also discuss how the war has affected Israel’s international standing, with European leaders voicing growing criticism of Israel’s conduct. Richard then turns to Rob to take a closer look at Israel’s aid distribution plan and its reported aim to provide only minimal levels of food after months of blockade, despite most Palestinians in Gaza already facing severe hunger.For more, check out our recent statement “Saving Gaza from Starvation” our Analyst’s Notebook entry “The Vanishing Line between Starvation and Famine in Gaza” and our Israel/Palestine page.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi, Samina Ahmed, and Pierre Prakash about the India-Pakistan ceasefire after days of clashes sparked by militant attacks in Kashmir and how to prevent the next crisis from spiralling out of control.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s India expert Praveen Donthi, South Asia Project Director Samina Ahmed, and Asia Program Director Pierre Prakash to discuss the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, which followed days of intense clashes between the nuclear-armed neighbours. Richard first speaks with Praveen about the mood in India following the ceasefire and its investigation into the late-April attack in India-administered Kashmir that killed 26 tourists – an assault India blames on Pakistan-sponsored militants and which triggered last week’s brief war. With Samina, they unpack the view from Pakistan, the toll the fighting took across the country, and safeguards the two sides can put in place to prevent future crises from escalating. Finally, Richard talks with Pierre about what diplomacy over Kashmir and tensions between India and Pakistan might entail and why South Asia deserves greater outside attention.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our India-Pakistan (Kashmir) page.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Yasmine Farouk, Ali Vaez and Michael Wahid Hanna about U.S. President Donald Trump’s forthcoming trip to the Gulf and how much the Iran nuclear talks, the Gaza war and other regional crises will feature on the agenda.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Michael Wahid Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program Director, Yasmine Farouk, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Director, and Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s forthcoming visit to the Gulf. They unpack Washington’s priorities for the trip, the role regional peace and security might play in Trump’s discussions with Gulf Arab leaders, and what Riyadh and other capitals hope to get from his visit. They assess the state of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, the incentives on both sides to reach a deal, and obstacles to diplomacy. They also examine other issues that might feature in Trump’s discussions in the Gulf, including Israel’s new war plans and the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, sanctions relief for Syria and the war in Sudan.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Gulf and Arabian Peninsula regional page.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to discuss Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal for Ukraine. They unpack what is known about the U.S. proposal and its potential implications, including the prospects of U.S. recognition of Russia’s claim to the Crimean Peninsula and Kyiv agreeing not to pursue membership in NATO. They examine Ukraine and its European backers’ counterproposal and the U.S. response, and Moscow’s position. They also explore Washington’s negotiating tactics, including its threat to withdraw from the talks if an agreement isn’t reached soon, and the minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine. Finally, they discuss the likelihood of Russia agreeing to a ceasefire given Putin’s belief he has the battlefield advantage, and whether Moscow’s position on negotiations to end the war has shifted.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our recent statement “Deal or No Deal, a Basis for Talks about Peace in Ukraine” and our Ukraine country page.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey about the devastating earthquake that struck Myanmar last week, challenges facing relief efforts and implications for the country’s civil war and its military leaders.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey to discuss the aftermath of the earthquake that struck central Myanmar last Friday. They examine the devastation in Myanmar’s second largest city, Mandalay, and other hard-hit areas, how U.S. aid cuts have hampered the emergency response and the extent to which China and others have stepped in. They explore how Myanmar’s civil war complicates relief efforts, with the army largely absent from rescue operations, and whether the disaster might impact military leader Min Aung Hlaing’s grip on power. They also unpack the evolving policies of Myanmar’s big neighbours, China and India, and what might break a stalemate in an increasingly intractable and neglected crisis.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our recent Q&A “Support Vital for Myanmar’s Quake Victims, Despite Military Obstacles”, our briefing “Disquiet on the Western Front: A Divided Resistance in Myanmar’s Chin State” and our Myanmar country page.