Share
Hold Your Fire!
Libya: Political Gridlock, Regional Politics and Sudan’s War
Season 3, Ep. 30
•
Last week, Libya’s parliament fired one of the country’s two prime ministers, Fathi Bashaga. Libya for years has been split between two rival governments. An internationally recognised prime minister, Abdelhamid Dabaiba, sits in the capital Tripoli and a rival government, until recently headed by Bashaga, is based mostly in the east. Last summer, Bashaga, who was backed by Khalifa Haftar, a powerful commander from eastern Libya, tried several times to seize Tripoli by force. Those efforts failed, costing Bashaga a lot of support in the east. Over recent months, Haftar’s camp and Dabaiba have been holding quiet talks. Violence has mostly subsided and the country has experienced something of an economic upturn thanks to increasing oil revenues. Still, the political gridlock remains. The newly appointed UN envoy for Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, has laid out a roadmap to elections, but his plan does not seem to enjoy much support from either camp.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Libya expert Claudia Gazzini, recently in Tripoli, to talk about Libya’s gridlock. They take stock of the dynamics between the rivalling political factions in the country, prospects for the Haftar-Dabaiba talks and also for elections. They discuss changing geopolitical winds in the region, particularly how better ties between Türkiye, which has long backed the internationally recognised government in Tripoli, and Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, which back Haftar, have made foreign involvement in Libya less fraught. They also talk about Libyan factions’ potential links to the fighting in Sudan and the danger of spillover.
For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out our Libya country page.
More episodes
View all episodes
29. After Three Years of War in Sudan, What Hope for a Ceasefire?
42:20||Season 6, Ep. 29In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss where Sudan’s war stands as it approaches its fourth year. They examine shifts along the front lines as Sudan’s de facto partition under the two main warring parties, the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, is becoming increasingly entrenched. They speak about how the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is affecting dynamics in Sudan. They also discuss the coherence of the two sides, their rival political projects and the role of outside backing in sustaining the war. They unpack the mounting risks of regional spillover, the state of efforts to broker peace, what might break the stalemate in those talks and the devastating toll three years of war have taken on Sudan. For more, check out our statement A Hormuz Initiative to Protect Global Food Security and The Horn episode How the Iran War is Reshaping the Region.28. From Bad to Disastrous: Will Trump Escalate in Iran?
01:04:56||Season 6, Ep. 28In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Stephen Pomper and Michael Wahid Hanna to talk about where the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran stands, one month in. Richard first speaks with Ali about reported backchannel talks between Washington and Tehran, the two sides’ largely incompatible demands for ending the war, changes in Iran’s leadership, and the slim prospects for de-escalation as the U.S. deploys more troops to the Gulf. Next, he speaks with Yasmine about how Gulf states see the war, where their views diverge, and what kind of outcome they would like to see when the war ends. He and Mairav talk about why the war continues to enjoy broad support in Israel despite its mounting costs, and what Israeli leaders still hope to achieve. Finally, Richard speaks with Michael and Stephen about Trump’s decision-making as the conflict continues, his erratic messaging, the administration’s options and what off-ramps remain.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our Statement “Finding an Off-ramp in the Middle East War” and our Middle East & North Africa page.27. Is Cuba Next?
44:54||Season 6, Ep. 27In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Crisis Group’s Latin America director, Renata Segura and senior policy director, Ivan Briscoe, about what the Trump administration is trying to achieve in Cuba and recent developments in Venezuela. They discuss Washington’s pressure campaign on Cuba, the effects of the U.S. oil blockade, popular frustration on the island and the inner workings of the Cuban regime and the reported talks between Washington and figures within the Cuban regime. They also look at Venezuela, what has changed since Nicolás Maduro’s capture, what is happening with oil revenues and whether the country is moving toward political reform. They assess how the rest of Latin America is reacting to Trump. They ask whether military action against Cuba is a real possibility, and whether a compromise short of full regime change would satisfy Washington and hardline Cuban-Americans.For more, check out our Q&A “Hunger in Havana: Can the U.S. Cutoff Bring Change to Cuba?” and our Latin America & Caribbean page.26. Escalation or off-Ramp in the Gulf? And What Hope for a Ceasefire in Lebanon?
52:21||Season 6, Ep. 26In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Lebanon expert David Wood and former Crisis Group President Rob Malley. Richard first talks with David about the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, why Hezbollah decided to launch attacks after the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began, Israel’s war aims in Lebanon and prospects for a ceasefire. Richard then turns to Rob to discuss the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran, how closely Washington and Israel are aligned in their objectives, whether Iran is pacing itself for a drawn-out conflict, and how Gulf states are reacting as they look for ways to bring the war to an end. They also discuss the danger of further escalation, possible pathways out of the conflict and lessons from years of failed diplomacy with Iran.For more, check out Rob’s article in The New York Times, “Of Course Trump Bombed Iran”, our commentary “A Sprawling Middle East War Explodes” and our Middle East page.25. Operation Epic Folly? Trump’s and Netanyahu’s War on Iran
59:09||Season 6, Ep. 25In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein and Michael Wahid Hanna to talk about how the U.S.-Israel war with Iran is unfolding and what might be next. Richard first speaks with Ali about what is happening inside Iran amid internet blackouts and heavy bombardment, debates around Iran’s leadership and Ali Khamenei’s succession, calculations in Tehran and the risks of state collapse. Next, Richard speaks with Yasmine about Iran’s continued missile and drone attacks on Gulf countries and how Gulf capitals weigh the dangers of escalation against the risks of Iran collapsing. He then speaks with Mairav about Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy, how Israelis are experiencing and viewing the war, and Israel’s renewed operations in Lebanon alongside the Iran campaign. Finally, he speaks with Michael about Washington’s murky motives for entering the war, the lack of domestic support for the campaign, debates about whether Netanyahu dragged U.S. President Donald Trump into war and potential off-ramps.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our last episode “Regime Change or Regional War? U.S. and Israel Kill Iran’s Supreme Leader” our Iran page.24. Special Episode: Regime Change or Regional War? U.S. and Israel Kill Iran’s Supreme Leader
43:01||Season 6, Ep. 24In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran director Ali Vaez and Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director Yasmin Farouk to discuss the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, the regional fallout, and what could come next. Richard first speaks with Ali about the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and what it means for Tehran’s leadership and decision-making. They assess the damage to Iran’s missile capabilities, the risks posed by its remaining nuclear stockpile, and escalation dynamics as Iran retaliates against Israel and countries in the Gulf. Richard then speaks with Yasmine about how Gulf states are responding, their concerns about escalation and the “day after” in Iran, and their anger at Iran’s barrage of missiles and drones.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our Iran page.23. Will Ethiopia and Eritrea Start a Regional War?
44:19||Season 6, Ep. 23In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Africa director Murithi Mutiga about rising Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions and the growing risk of another war in the Horn of Africa. They discuss how political divisions in Tigray and Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access are sharpening fault lines between Addis Ababa and Asmara. They examine how Gulf and Middle Eastern rivalries could shape any Ethiopia–Eritrea confrontation and increase the risk of wider regional conflagration, including the danger of spillover from Sudan’s war. They also explore how global political shifts are playing out in Africa, reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” and the prospects for coalitions of mid-sized Western and non-Western powers to act collectively. For more, check out our briefing, “Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa”, and our Ethiopia-Eritrea page.22. A Transport Route to Peace in the South Caucasus?
45:40||Season 6, Ep. 22In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Joshua Kucera, Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, about progress in Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks, U.S. involvement and shifting regional politics. They discuss U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s recent visit to Yerevan and Baku, why Washington got involved and U.S. efforts to broker agreement on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) – a proposed transit corridor linking mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through southern Armenia. They talk about whether the corridor could move forward even without a fully ratified peace deal and examine the remaining sticking points. They also assess Türkiye’s expanding role in the region, Iran’s concerns about the corridor, Russia’s waning influence and European policy. They examine why the Trump administration’s peacemaking appears to have been more successful in the South Caucasus than elsewhere. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out Joshua’s recent Analyst’s Notebook, “Vance Visit Reaffirms U.S. Push to End Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict” and our Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict page.21. Phase Two in Gaza?
43:41||Season 6, Ep. 21In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Amjad Iraqi, Mairav Zonszein and Max Rodenbeck about President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace and its implications for Gaza. They unpack the structure of the board’s different layers, how Palestinians are reacting to the new Palestinian technocratic Gaza committee and what that committee will do. They look at conditions on the ground in Gaza amid frequent ceasefire violations and Hamas’s continued hold of parts of the strip. They also assess the obstacles to moving the peace plan forward, including working out agreement on the sequencing of Hamas decommissioning weapons, on one hand, and Israeli withdrawing troops and letting in reconstruction aid on the other, as well as the still-uncertain prospects for an international stabilisation force in the strip.For more, check out our recent episodes “Norway’s FM Espen Barth Eide on Greenland, Iran, Trump’s Board of Peace and other crises”, “The Greenland Showdown and Board of Peace at Davos” and our Israel/Palestine page.