Share

cover art for Campaign catch-up: Why this UK election result could be the most distorted ever

Political Fix

Campaign catch-up: Why this UK election result could be the most distorted ever

The Conservatives’ embattled campaign suffered yet another setback this week, as the betting scandal escalated and the party finally suspended two candidates ensnared by the row. But when did it first start to go wrong for the Tories? Lucy Fisher is joined by the FT’s chief data reporter John Burn-Murdoch, who charts the beginning of the party’s descent back to 2019. The pair are joined by Political Fix regulars Robert Shrimsley and George Parker to discuss whether Britain’s “first past the post system” will lead to the biggest ever mismatch between parties’ share of the vote and their share of Westminster seats. 


Follow Lucy on X: @LOS_Fisher


Want more? Free links:


How the Conservatives lost touch with England’s prosperous south 


No, Keir, the real opposition is behind you 


Brace for the most distorted election result in British history


The seeds of the Tory collapse were sown in 2019


Starmer will be centrism’s last chance


Sign up here for 30 free days of Stephen Bush's Inside Politics newsletter, winner of the World Association of News Publishers 2023 ‘Best Newsletter’ award. 


Presented by Lucy Fisher. 

Produced by Persis Love and Audrey Tinline.

Manuela Saragosa is the executive producer. Original music and audio mix by Breen Turner. 

The FT’s head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. 


Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

More episodes

View all episodes

  • Ask Political Fix: Starmer’s fightback, election turmoil and defence

    50:16|
    You sent in your burning questions, now our panel answers them. Will Sir Keir Starmer’s ‘relaunch’ work? Has Britain become ungovernable? Will the UK’s voting system be reformed, is the student loans system punishing youthful ambition, and what about defence? Host Lucy Fisher is joined by the FT’s George Parker, Miranda Green and Robert Shrimsley to discuss a range of topics spanning politics and policy.Follow Lucy on Bluesky or X: @lucyfisher.bsky.social, @LOS_Fisher; Miranda @greenmirandahere.bsky.social, George: @GeorgeWParker & @georgewparker.bsky.social and Robert @robertshrimsley, @robertshrimsley.bsky.socialWant more? Starmer vows he will not ‘walk away’ as leadership rivals circle There was nothing here to save StarmerKeir Starmer to promise ‘urgent’ change as he fights for his political future‘You’ve got to achieve things quickly’: lessons from a decade of leading LondonThe new politics may be more like the old politics than we assume Sign up here for Stephen Bush's morning newsletter Inside Politics for straight-talking insight into the stories that matter, plus puns and tongue (mostly) in cheek analysis. Get 30 days free.Presented by Lucy Fisher. Produced by Clare Williamson. Manuela Saragosa is the executive producer. Original music and mix by Breen Turner. The broadcast engineers were Andrew Giorgiades and Petros Gioumpasis. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of Audio.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
  • Election special: snap analysis

    36:15|
    It’s been a dreadful night for Labour as council seats across the country have turned from red to turquoise. The Conservatives have not fared much better with Reform UK the big winner so far. With results still coming in, host Lucy Fisher discusses the fracturing of the vote and the future for beleaguered Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer with the FT’s deputy political editor Jim Pickard, Northern England correspondent Jen Williams and political columnist Stephen Bush.Have a question for the panel? We’re planning a question and answer episode on Monday May 11. Email your questions to politicalfix@ft.comFollow Lucy on X: @LOS_Fisher, and Bluesky: @lucyfisher.ft.com; Jim @PickardJE and @pickardje.bsky.social; Stephen @stephenkb & @stephenkb.bsky.social and Jen: @JenWilliamsMEN and @jenwilliamsft.bsky.socialWant more? UK elections: Labour suffers heavy losses as Reform surgesFour things we learnt in the UK electionsScale of defeat should shake ‘big two’ parties into serious actionKeir Starmer defies calls to quit after heavy Labour council lossesUK local and devolved elections: Hour-by-hour guide to key resultsIn Labour’s bleak moment, Andy Burnham relishes his ownSign up here for Stephen Bush's morning newsletter Inside Politics for straight-talking insight into the stories that matter, plus puns and tongue (mostly) in cheek. Get 30 days free.Presented by Lucy Fisher. Produced by Clare Williamson. Manuela Saragosa is the executive producer. Original music and mix by Breen Turner. The broadcast engineers were Andrew Giorgiades and Petros Gioumpasis. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of Audio.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
  • Labour braces for ballot box bloodbath

    37:25|
    With just one week to go before voters across the UK deliver their verdict on Sir Keir Starmer’s government – our panel discusses another agonising week for the PM, Labour’s forecast devastation at the polls, and how No 10 can regroup in the aftermath. Other talking points include the momentum behind Reform UK and the Green party — and the hurdles that threaten to trip them up.Host Lucy Fisher is joined by deputy opinion editor Miranda Green, UK chief political commentator Robert Shrimsley and political columnist Stephen Bush. Follow: Lucy @LOS_Fisher or @lucyfisher.ft.com; Stephen @stephenkb & @stephenkb.bsky.social; Miranda @greenmiranda & @greenmirandahere.bsky.social and Robert @robertshrimsley and @robertshrimsley.bsky.socialWant more?  What to expect in the May local electionsWhat Labour’s likely meltdown means for the UKThe problematic inevitability of Andy BurnhamReform UK and Greens hit controversy on election trail Golders Green stabbing suspect was previously referred to Prevent Plus, send in your questions for a special Political Fix Q&A episode right after the local elections, on Monday May 11. Email: politicalfix@ft.comYou can also sign up here for Stephen Bush’s morning newsletter Inside Politics for straight-talking insight into the stories that matter, plus puns and tongue (mostly) in cheek views. Get 30 days free.Political Fix is presented by Lucy Fisher and produced by Clare Williamson. The executive producer is Flo Phillips. Mixing and original music by Breen Turner. The FT’s head of audio is Cheryl Brumley.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
  • Introducing: The Story of Money

    01:17|
    The economist John Kenneth Galbraith once quipped that “there can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance.” This show sets out to prove the opposite. Each week, FT columnist Gillian Tett and FT Alphaville editor Robin Wigglesworth dig into the ideas, personalities and institutions that have shaped global finance. From unregulated banking in 19th-century frontier America to institutionalised debt jubilees in ancient Mesopotamia, and from the birth of credit derivatives to the great market meltdowns of the past, Robin and Gillian uncover the story of money because time and again, the same manias and mistakes resurface. Tune in and you might just understand where the next financial opportunities and disasters could be hiding. Subscribe to The Story of Money wherever you get your podcasts and watch the show on YouTube. Learn more about the show at ft.com/tsom and find out more about Gillian Tett here and Robin Wigglesworth here. Follow FT Alphaville here. Hosts: Gillian Tett and Robin Wigglesworth Producer: Lulu Smyth Senior Producer: Michela Tindera Executive Producers: Flo Phillips and Manuela Saragosa Original music and sound engineering: Breen Turner Podcast Development: Laura Clarke Global Head of Audio: Cheryl Brumley
  • The Mandelson Starmer saga stumbles on

    37:26|
    The rolling drama over the appointment of Lord Peter Mandelson as US ambassador is eating the government alive, with more committee hearings coming next week and crucial elections for Labour on May 7. This week’s host Miranda Green discusses the cost of the Mandelson saga for Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership with deputy political editor Jim Pickard, political correspondent Anna Gross and public policy editor Chris Smyth. Plus, the panel debates Ed Miliband’s electricity announcement, Reform’s new plan for mass deportations, and a booming but dysfunctional market in business courses. Follow: Miranda:@greenmiranda and @greenmirandahere.bsky.social; Jim: @PickardJE and @pickardje.bsky.social, Anna: @AnnaSophieGross and annasophiegross.bsky.social Chris: @Smyth_Chris and @chris-smyth.bsky.socialWant more?  Cabinet Office head says Olly Robbins refused to give her Mandelson vetting documentsStarmer’s political woes deepen as Mandelson scandal saps his authority Sadiq Khan: Labour risks being ‘stonked’ in London electionsBusiness degrees are booming in the UK. Who is profiting?How many people would Reform UK deport?Economic pessimism plagues UK youthEd Miliband unveils move to delink UK gas and electricity prices Plus, send in your questions for a special Political Fix Q&A episode right after the local elections on Monday May 11. Email: politicalfix@ft.comSign up here for Stephen Bush’s morning newsletter Inside Politics for straight-talking insight into the stories that matter, plus puns and tongue (mostly) in cheek views. Get 30 days free.Political Fix is presented by Miranda Green and produced by Clare Williamson. The executive producers are Manuela Saragosa and Edwin Lane. Mixing and original music by Breen Turner. The FT’s head of audio is Cheryl Brumley.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
  • Labour lambasted over defence

    35:04|
    It’s not just the Trump administration attacking the UK’s defence capabilities. Now a Labour grandee and former head of Nato, Lord George Robertson, has accused Sir Keir Starmer of ‘corrosive complacency’ over delays to defence spending. With the 10-year plan for defence stuck in deadlock, host Lucy Fisher discusses the choices faced by the PM with chief political commentator Robert Shrimsley, deputy political editor Jim Pickard and political columnist and writer of the Inside Politics newsletter, Stephen Bush. Plus, they look ahead to country-wide elections in less than three weeks and hear about the developing story around the vetting of Lord Mandelson.NOTE: This episode was recorded on Thursday April 16.Follow Lucy: @LOS_Fisher and @lucyfisher.ft.com; Stephen: @stephenkb and @stephenkb.bsky.social; Jim: @PickardJE and @pickardje.bsky.social and Robert: @robertshrimsley and @robertshrimsley.bsky.socialWant more?  Starmer accused of ‘corrosive complacency’ on UK defence by former Nato chiefUK defence ministry left to foot £200mn bill for Ukraine missionRebuke by former Nato chief points to wider government inactionKeir Starmer plans May relaunch with King’s Speech The great independence charadeForeign Office top civil servant forced out over Mandelson vetting fiascoNo scenario in latest Mandelson drama makes Keir Starmer look goodSign up here for Stephen’s morning newsletter Inside Politics for straight-talking insight into the stories that matter, plus puns and tongue (mostly) in cheek views. Get 30 days free.Plus, send in your questions for a special Political Fix Q&A episode on May 11th. Email: politicalfix@ft.comPolitical Fix is presented by Lucy Fisher and produced by Clare Williamson. The executive producers are Manuela Saragosa and Edwin Lane. Audio mix and original music by Breen Turner. The FT’s head of audio is Cheryl Brumley.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
  • Squeezed Britain: student loans, salaries and strikes

    36:16|
    Sir Keir Starmer had promised 2026 would be the year the UK economy and household finances would finally “turn the corner”. But the Iran war has nixed those hopes. Now the pressure from unions to increase public sector pay is mounting, and resident doctors are continuing their rolling strikes. Student finance remains another open sore despite the announcement of a cap on loan interest rates. To discuss the pressures on the public purse, host Lucy Fisher is joined by political editor George Parker, columnist Stephen Bush and public policy editor Chris Smyth. Plus, with local elections just weeks away, the panel also discusses the prime minister’s trip to the Middle East.  Follow: Lucy on X: @LOS_Fisher and Bluesky: @lucyfisher.ft.com; George @GeorgeWParker and @georgewparker.bsky.social; Stephen @stephenkb and @stephenkb.bsky.social and Chris @Smyth_Chris and @chris-smyth.bsky.socialWant more?Starmer leans into his Iran response to resonate with votersUnions prepare for UK public sector pay push as inflation bites UK health officials discuss banning doctors from going on strikeWhat happens when the Green Party governs?Capping student loan interest rates is a step in the right directionNHS data chief pushes for deeper rollout of Palantir technology despite outcryCan the Iran war save Keir Starmer’s premiership?UK exposes covert Russian submarine operationThe political power struggle behind the Bayeux TapestryHave a question for the panel? We’re planning a question-and-answer episode. Email your questions to politicalfix@ft.comSign up here for Stephen’s morning newsletter Inside Politics for straight-talking insight into the stories that matter, plus puns and tongue (mostly) in cheek views. Get 30 days free.Political Fix is presented by Lucy Fisher and produced by Clare Williamson. The executive producer is Manuela Saragosa. Audio mix by Sean McGarrity. Original music by Breen Turner. The FT’s head of audio is Cheryl Brumley.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
  • Trump taunts drive Starmer into EU’s arms

    41:03|
    Donald Trump has heaped insults on Sir Keir Starmer in recent weeks over his stance on the Iran war. The US president labelled the UK prime minister “no Winston Churchill”, said Britain’s aircraft carriers were mere “toys” and told Britain to “go get your own oil” from the Gulf. So perhaps it’s unsurprising that the PM appears to be pivoting heavily towards the EU. Host Lucy Fisher unpicks the shift with colleagues Jim Pickard, Anna Gross and Robert Shrimsley. They also discuss how the Middle East conflict will play out in the upcoming local elections.Have a question for the panel? We’re planning a question and answer episode. Email your questions to politicalfix@ft.comFollow Lucy on X: @LOS_Fisher, and Bluesky: @lucyfisher.ft.com; Robert: @robertshrimsley and @robertshrimsley.bsky.social; Jim @PickardJE and @pickardje.bsky.social and Anna @AnnaSophieGross & @annasophiegross.bsky.socialWant more? Keir Starmer signals major UK pivot towards EU after Donald Trump’s tauntsLessons from history on how to survive a fuel crisisCracks appear in US-UK security co-operation after Trump-Starmer tensionsStarmer strikes upbeat note amid dismal polling ahead of May 7 local electionsPolitical drama reaches heart of UK’s nuclear deterrentHammering Farage-Trump links could suppress Reform’s poll leadSign up here for Stephen Bush's morning newsletter Inside Politics for straight-talking insight into the stories that matter, plus puns and tongue (mostly) in cheek. Get 30 days free.Presented by Lucy Fisher. Produced by Clare Williamson. Manuela Saragosa is the executive producer. Original music by Breen Turner, mix by Sean McGarrity. The broadcast engineers were Andrew Giorgiades and Petros Gioumpasis. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of Audio.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
  • The case for keeping Starmer

    37:38|
    Sir Keir Starmer’s authority is slipping and Westminster is alive with speculation about potential successors. But chief political commentator Robert Shrimsley joins host Lucy Fisher, alongside deputy opinion editor Miranda Green and public policy editor Chris Smyth, to argue why he believes Labour may be better off sticking with Starmer. The panel also discuss the government’s plans to ban political donations in cryptocurrency and cap overseas donations at £100,000 a year. What does it mean for Reform UK, which has been a major beneficiary of overseas donors and crypto donations? Have a question for the panel? We’re planning a question and answer episode. Email your questions to politicalfix@ft.comFollow Lucy on X: @LOS_Fisher, and Bluesky: @lucyfisher.ft.com; Robert: @robertshrimsley and @robertshrimsley.bsky.social;Miranda @greenmiranda and @greenmirandahere.bsky.social; & Chris @Smyth_Chris and @chris-smyth.bsky.socialWant more? The case for keeping Keir Starmer a little longerStarmer set to make Sadiq Khan a Lord Overseas donations to UK parties to be capped at £100,000 Companies face having to declare individuals behind UK political donations Net zero is not a zero-sum game Sign up here for Stephen Bush's morning newsletter Inside Politics for straight-talking insight into the stories that matter, plus puns and tongue (mostly) in cheek. Get 30 days free.Presented by Lucy Fisher. Produced by Nisha Patel. Manuela Saragosa is the executive producer. Original music and sound engineering by Breen Turner. The broadcast engineer was Bianca Wakeman and Petros Gioumpasis. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of audio.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com