Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

This week, Mark Leonard joins forces with Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s director of research and US programme director, to unpick two momentous geopolitical disruptions. First, a stunning scandal emerged from a Signal group chat, where senior US officials—including the vice president, secretary of defence and CIA director—carelessly looped in the Atlantic’s editor-in-chief to discuss military strikes in Yemen. Among their plans, the chat laid bare the US administration’s disdain for Europe and schemes to extract economic advantages from allies—while exposing a shocking disregard for protocol. Mark and Jeremy then turn their focus to Riyadh, where whispers of a US-Russia pact are surfacing. This could mean reviving Russia’s agricultural markets, securing a Black Sea ceasefire and halting assaults on energy infrastructure. But alarm bells are ringing and Ukraine might be left in the cold. Worse yet, the Trump administration seems to be drifting away from supporting European defence while cosying up to Putin. Could the US truly be forsaking its historic role as Europe’s guardian? This podcast was recorded on 26th March.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy fellow for ECFR’s Wider Europe programme and visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, to discuss the dramatic arrest of Istanbul’s popular mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu. The arrest sparked nationwide protests; together they explore whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s bold move signals a critical shift for Turkish democracy, potentially steering the country toward a less competitive system reminiscent of Russia or Iran. Their conversation examines Turkey’s deeply polarised society, the significant role of its Kurdish minority and Erdogan’s strategic manoeuvring in a rapidly evolving global landscape, especially following Donald Trump’s re-election. As Europe’s influence over Turkey weakens, Mark and Aslı consider the broader implications for the future of Turkish politics and its increasingly strained relationship with the West. This podcast was recorded on 24 March. 

This week, Mark Leonard hosts Tobias Gehrke, an ECFR senior policy fellow specialising in geoeconomics and economic security, and José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of ECFR’s Madrid office and expert on tech geopolitics, to explore how Europe can counter a potentially hostile Trump administration. With trade wars looming and the US flexing its power, Mark and his guests delve into Tobias’s new policy brief, Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion. They outline which tools Europe can use—from trade tariffs and service restrictions, to targeting tech giants like Elon Musk’s Starlink and Tesla, to curbing data flows and licences for firms like BlackRock—to apply leverage over Trump’s administration. The discussion weighs the costs of deterrence, the risk of escalation into security domains like NATO, and the threat posed by tech tycoons to European democracy. Can Europe stand firm without shooting itself in the foot?  This podcast was recorded on 20th March. 

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Kirill Shamiev, a policy fellow with ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, to dissect the outcomes and implications of the historic phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin—which, at two-and-a-half-hours, was the longest between American and Russian leaders in history. Mark and Kirill explore the three key outcomes: a prisoner exchange of 175 individuals from each side; an agreement to cease attacks on energy infrastructure for 30 days; and a shift from informal diplomacy to official expert discussions on conflict settlement.  The conversation also delves into the contrasting post-call read-outs from the White House and the Kremlin; where Russia is projecting assertiveness, the US has adopted a more diplomatic tone. What does the phone call mean for the Ukraine conflict? And why is Europe conspicuously absent from the discussion?  This podcast was recorded on 19 March 2025.

In this episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Adam Tooze—ECFR trustee, the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis professor of history at Columbia University, director of the university’s European Institute and author—to discuss Donald Trump’s rise through a class lens. They examine how job losses and cultural divides, as well as frustration with media, tech and government elites, are driving workers’ support for Trump. These societal shifts are disrupting US politics, promoting figures like Trump and Elon Musk who some see as defying the establishment. Tooze calls for Europe to develop a united, stronger response to these changes. With the US distracted and China ahead in manufacturing areas such as tech and automotive, Europe needs major investments in finance, industry and technology. Tooze sees less risk in US trade disputes but warns Europe must act to stay relevant. But can Europe meet this challenge?This podcast was recorded on 17th March. 

Donald Trump's presidency has cast a significant shadow over Europe, reshaping its varied political landscapes and policy decisions. As the continent navigates this transformative era, it also faces tests to its unity and cohesion.  This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, ECFR senior policy fellow and head of the Paris office, Piotr Buras, ECFR senior policy fellow and head of the Warsaw office, Teresa Coratella, ECFR policy fellow and deputy head of the Rome office, Rafael Loss, ECFR policy fellow, José Ignacio Torreblanca, ECFR senior policy fellow and head of the Madrid office and Maria Simeonova, head of ECFR Sofia, for a special episode recorded in Prague where ECFR gathered for its annual staff retreat. Together with Mark, this week’s guests explore how Trump 2.0 is forcing Europe to confront its vulnerabilities and rethink many assumptions which it had long taken for granted. This podcast was recorded on March 13th 

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin, head of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, to explore the implications of and strategic motives behind a newly announced Ukraine-US agreement amid the Russia conflict. The deal includes a 30-day ceasefire, and resumed US intelligence sharing and military aid for Ukraine. Will Russia reciprocate or escalate? Is the US fully backing Ukraine or seeking a reset with Russia? Does Russia see a chance to cement influence over Ukraine and European security? This podcast was recorded on 12 March. 

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Warsaw office to discuss the recent shifts in Europe’s defence strategy. On the weekend, Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz’s has said he would pursue discussions with France and Britain on sharing nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk is looking into the possibility of nuclear deterrence and has proposed compulsory military training for men. Are we witnessing a fundamental shift in Europe’s security posture? How do Tusk’s remarks tie into Merz’s comments? Are we seeing the end of America’s nuclear umbrella in Europe, or at least the end of its credibility?  

Fourteen years after the outbreak of civil war, Syria is at a critical juncture. Beyond its borders, regional tensions continue to shape its fate. Meanwhile, traditional global powers, particularly the US, remain largely disengaged—raising questions about the risk of inaction. This week Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme, Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme, and Hugh Lovatt, ECFR senior policy fellow. The team has just returned from a research trip to Damascus, where they met with Syria’s new government officials and civil society members. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the rise of Ahmed al-Sharaa, what is the mood in the country? How has governance evolved under the new leadership, and what challenges persist? What role can—and should—Europe play in shaping Syria’s post-war reality? And do Syria’s new politics offer an opportunity for Europe to counter Russian influence?   Bookshelf: Kleptopia: How Dirty Money is Conquering the World by Tom BurgisMovies: The Swimmers, No Other Land, The Seed of the Sacred FigKingdoms of Faith A New History of Islamic Spain by Brian A. Catlos   This podcast was recorded on March 4th 2025