Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Andrew Small, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, to discuss how Chinese industrial overcapacity is threatening European deindustrialisation—and what Europe can do about it.Over the summer, Europe’s approach to China shifted markedly. At the June 2026 European Council, leaders were largely united in seeing the surge of Chinese exports as a serious threat to European industry. They also tasked the European Commission to make one last attempt to negotiate a trade deal with Beijing.Days before the talks began, a leaked paper co-authored by France and Germany set out a tougher agenda for the EU’s China policy. On October 9th, after two days of negotiations in Beijing, the EU’s trade and economic security commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, announced that the first result was volume limits on hybrid vehicles, the biggest problem for Europe’s car industry, and that China has accepted the proposal. This week, the European Council in Brussels is returning to the issue, and Mark and Andrew discuss where the EU-China trade talks stand. What is behind the Franco-German paper? What options does the EU have to deal with the China shock 2.0? And what is at stake for Europe’s economy?This podcast episode was recorded on October 16th 2026.Bookshelf:Institutional Genes: Origins of China's Institutions and Totalitarianism, by Chenggang XuThe art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms, by Andrew Small

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Guntram Wolf, senior fellow at Bruegel and professor of economics at the Université Libre de Bruxelles, and Pierre Heilbronn, former vice-president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and France’s former special envoy for Ukraine’s relief and reconstruction. Together, they discuss the European debate around the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).Every seven years, EU member states agree on the MFF—but talks to plan the 2028-2034 edition have created two camps. On one side is the “friends of cohesion”, who want to protect money for poorer regions and farmers. On the other is the “frugals”, net contributors led by Germany that want a smaller budget focused on defence and competitiveness.On October 10th, the Irish presidency tabled a compromise to cut the commission’s proposal of almost €2 trillion by about 8%, at the cost of competitiveness, foreign aid and emergency funds. It would leave farmer subsidies and cohesion funds untouched, however. EU leaders are now meeting in Brussels on October 15th-16th, with the MFF negotiations expected to reach a decisive phase in the coming weeks.In this week’s episode, Mark, Guntram and Pierre discuss how the EU budget is put together, and why this round is proving so hard to close. Can the two camps find common ground? Where do negotiations stand today, and what could help clear the way to an agreement? And what is at stake for Europeans competitiveness? Bookshelf:On Xi Jinping. How Xi's Marxist Nationalism is Shaping China and the World, by Kevin RuddA Certain Idea of France: The Life of Charles de Gaulle, by Julian Jackson

In late September, 87-year-old Maricarmen Abascal was evicted from the Madrid flat she had lived in for seven decades, sparking nationwide protests over Spain’s housing crisis. Pedro Sánchez’s government responded with two emergency housing decrees which Congress rejected on October 2nd. Three days later, the prime minister dissolved parliament and called for a snap election on November 29th. Sánchez has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat before, but the polls are pointing towards a PP–Vox coalition that could bring the far right into government for the first time since the return of democracy.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Carla Hobbs, the head of Madrid office and policy fellow at ECFR, along with Nacho Torreblanca, a distinguished policy fellow at the geoeconomics and technology programme and senior adviser to the Madrid office. Together, they discuss whether Sánchez’s gamble will pay off and what it means for Europe. Why did Sánchez call the election now? Where do the polls stand? And what are the central issues that Spaniards will vote on?Bookshelf:“Solos en el mundo” by Arancha González Laya“Nexus: A Brief History of Information Networks from the Stone Age to AI” by Yuval Noah HarariUpdate: This podcast was recorded on October 7th. Since then, Maricarmen Abascal died in hospital at the age of 87. In addition, Spain’s trade unions have called a general strike over housing for November 11th, just weeks before the vote.

In September 2025, Binyamin Netanyahu told Israelis their country was in “a sort of isolation” and would need to become a “super-Sparta”: its economy would have “autarkic characteristics” and its arms industry would be able to produce what it needs. This vision of Israel is a long way from the close ties to the West the country’s founders foresaw. Beth Oppenheim’s new web special for ECFR argues that illiberal and ethno-nationalist forces are remaking Israel in their image, in a shift that runs deeper than electoral politics—and that will outlast Netanyahu.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Beth, policy fellow with ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, along with Ariel David, PhD candidate at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and Neri Zilber, a journalist and analyst who covers Israel for the Financial Times and hosts the “Israel Policy Forum” podcast. Together, they discuss competing ideas of Israel and what they mean for Europe. What are the big ideas defining national identity and politics in Israel? What is Israel’s vision for the Middle East? And how do Israel’s ascendant camps see Europe?Bookshelf: “The ideas of Israel” by Beth Oppenheim“Mother Mary Comes to Me” by Arundhati Roy The works of Michel Houellebecq “6:29 Anatomy of a Failure” by Amos Harel “The World of Yesterday” by Stefan Zweig

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy fellow at ECFR and a fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution in Washington, to discuss a recent policy brief for ECFR, authored alongside Evren Balta, professor of international relations at Özyeğin University in Istanbul.In their brief, Aslı and Evren argue that Turkey is an “embedded outsider”. It maintains relations with Moscow and other Western adversaries, but is also a NATO state with the alliance’s second-largest army; it supports Ukraine and is technically an applicant for EU membership. And nowhere has this embedded outsider status been more apparent than at the NATO summit hosted by Recep Tayyip Erdogan in July. The Turkish president gave visiting leaders a Turkish-made revolver, loaded with live ammunition: a gift no one could accept from an ally no one can place.In this week’s episode, Mark and Aslı explore Turkey’s unique position in European and global politics. Together they discuss Turkish autonomy, its relationship with NATO, Russia and the EU, and how Europe can better engage with such a complex actor. How aligned—or misaligned—is Turkey with its Western allies? What role does it play in Ukrainian and Black Sea diplomacy? And to what extent does a shared agenda exist between Ankara and Europe?Bookshelf:An outsider within: The paradox of the Europe-Turkey relationship by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Evren BaltaTheo of Golden by Allen Levi

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Kobzova, co-director of ECFR’s European Security programme, to discuss the mounting pressures facing Ukraine as it enters another wartime winter. Despite Ukraine’s success in disrupting Russian logistics and energy infrastructure, Russia has intensified its attacks on cities, energy networks and civilian targets, while Kyiv faces growing domestic political and economic strains.Jana explains how shortages of air-defence interceptors, political infighting, corruption investigations and economic challenges are converging at a particularly difficult moment for Ukraine. She also examines Russia’s escalating hybrid attacks across Europe and how Europeans can strengthen their resilience—and Ukraine’s defences.Together, Mark and Jana assess Ukraine’s ability to withstand these overlapping crises, the future of European support and the role Ukraine could play in Europe’s long-term security architecture. As Russia raises the pressure both on and off the battlefield, can Ukraine and its allies maintain the unity needed to hold the line?This podcast episode was recorded on September 16th 2026. BookshelfMotherland: A Feminist History of Modern Russia, from Revolution to Autocracy, by Julia Ioffe.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Cary Fowler, founder and president of the Food Security Leadership Council and former US global food security envoy, and Jim O’Brien, ECFR distinguished visiting fellow and former US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs. As conflict, climate change and geopolitical fragmentation converge, there is a growing risk of a global food crisis. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to disrupt grain exports, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is restricting fertiliser shipments, and a potentially severe El Niño threatens drought and falling harvests across parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. These overlapping pressures will impact hundreds of millions of people who are already food insecure. While mechanisms are in place to mitigate the impact of food insecurity—for example, in 2022, the UN, the US, the EU and regional actors worked together to keep grain flowing from Ukraine and avert a broader catastrophe—many of the conditions that enabled cooperation then are weaker today. This has created a dangerous gap in global leadership. Together, Mark, Cary and Jim explore how a new international coalition could prevent millions more people from falling into hunger. They discuss the roles of Europe, the UN and major powers such as China, India and Russia; the case for humanitarian ceasefires covering grain exports and fertiliser shipments; and why food security should be treated as a central pillar of global security. Can governments overcome geopolitical rivalry to address a crisis that no one wants? How severe could the impact of El Niño become in already vulnerable regions? What would a ceasefire covering grain and fertiliser look like in practice? And can Europe coordinate a global response when other leaders are absent? This podcast episode was recorded on September 9th 2026. Bookshelf  Not for the Faint of Heart: Lessons in Courage, Power and Persistence, Wendy Sherman The Growth of Biological Thought, Ernst Mayr The Big Bet, Michael Auerbach China’s Global Strategy under Xi Jinping, Steve Tsang and Olivia Cheung Against war, drought and hunger: A global coalition to prevent a food crisis, Cary Fowler, Jim O'Brien and Jana Kobzova 

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Puglierin, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Berlin office, in a World in 30 Minutes Emergency Room episode to discuss the latest in German politics.The AfD’s win in the small eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt was widely expected, but the scale of the result and the collapse of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) have still shocked Berlin. For the first time since the second world war, a far-right party is within reach of governing a German Bundesland. Jana unpacks the AfD’s possible paths to power, the pressure on Merz and his grand coalition, and what the result says about the far right’s continued rise in Europe.Why does an election in a state of two million people matter so much for a country of 84 million? Can the AfD govern without a formal coalition partner, and would CDU lawmakers break the historic “firewall” to make that possible? Why is the party still treated as beyond the pale, even as it leads national polls? And should Europe prepare for a Germany too absorbed in its own crisis to lead?This episode was recorded on September 7th 2026