Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

China’s tightening of export controls on rare earths and related technologies across 2025 marked a turning point in Europe’s economic security. Even with Beijing’s partial and momentary rollback after talks with Washington, a Damocles sword still hangs over Europe’s industrial base—from defence to semiconductors and clean tech.  And with China’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan and Made in China 2035, Europe faces the triple threat of coercion, industrial corrosion and loss of sensitive business intelligence.  This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke, senior policy fellow at ECFR covering economic security and European economic strategy, and Andrew Small, the new director of the ECFR’s Asia programme. Together,  they discuss China’s current and future economic strategies—and actions that Europe should take in response.   How seriously should Europeans take the threat of Chinese coercion? In which industries can Europe realistically compete with Beijing? And where are Europe’s potential partners in Asia, Africa and Latin America for alternative supply chains?  This episode was recorded on December 15 2025  Bookshelf Material World: The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern Civilization by Ed Conway The Reckoning by David Halberstam “Isch vorbei” by Süddeutsche Zeitung 

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow and deputy head of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, and Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow with ECFR’s MENA programme and chairman of the Brussels-based European Middle East Project (EuMEP).  Together, they discuss Ellie’s and Hugh’s experiences at the Doha Forum: from Gaza’s fragile future and Iran’s nuclear conundrum, to America’s role as a security guarantor in the Middle East—especially for Iran’s nuclear deal.   Will America still be considered as the security guarantor in the Arab world, or is Trump still interested in the Iran nuclear compromise?  Will the outcome of a future Israeli election fundamentally change the country's foreign policy? And who holds the real power in Gaza’s future governance—the international community, or Palestinians themselves?   This episode was recorded on December 10th 2025  Bookshelf:The Caravan: Abdallah Azzam and the Rise of Global Jihad by Thomas Hegghammer 

America has published its new National Security Strategy (NSS)—and it contains worrying rhetoric about the EU, European values and the transatlantic relationship. Russia, however, is never described as a threat or competitor. In fact, Moscow has welcomed the document as being “largely consistent with Russia’s vision”.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Gladden Pappin, president of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, co-founder and deputy editor of American Affairs journal, and co-founder of the online magazine Postliberal Order, and Majda Ruge, senior policy fellow in ECFR’s US programme and long-time observer of the American right’s foreign policy. Together, they break down what’s behind the NSS and what its real impact on Europe might be.What are the NSS’s ideological roots? How seriously should Europeans take the strategy and possible threats coming from the US? And what does the NSS mean for the future of the transatlantic relationship? Bookshelf:Reading Trump’s National Security Strategy: Europe through a distorted lens by Carl BildtIt’s time Europe got to grips with the MAGA challenge, writes Mark Leonard by Mark LeonardEuropeans can’t let Trump define what it means to be European by Pawel ZerkaThis episode was recorded on December 11th 2025

China’s rise has long fascinated policymakers, economists and technologists. But few observers have studied the country’s technological ambitions as closely as Dan Wang, research fellow at the Hoover History Lab at Stanford University and author of Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future.This week, Mark welcomes Dan to discuss the ideas behind his book, including the dichotomy between China’s “engineering state" and the West’s “lawyerly” societies. Together, they unpack what China is getting right—and where its model is lagging.What is the Chinese government getting wrong? Is the Chinese model now coming under strain? What would it take for Europe to remain competitive in the 21st century? And how is China projecting its model across Africa and South-East Asia?Bookshelf: Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future by Dan Wang Allies at War: How the Struggles Between the Allied Powers Shaped the War and the World by Tim Bouverie This episode was recorded on November 21st 2025 

The European Council on Foreign Relations turned 18 in November 2025. This milestone offers a unique moment to reflect on the world in which ECFR was founded—and how dramatically it has changed. In 2007, Europe had the world’s confidence: democracy seemed secure, globalisation was a force for opportunity, EU enlargement was reshaping the continent, and peace felt almost guaranteed. So how did Europe move from the hopeful 2000s to a world of power blocs and war?This week, Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR co-chairs Carl Bildt, former prime and foreign minister of Sweden, Lykke Friis, former Danish minister of climate, energy and gender equality, and Norbert Röttgen, member of the German parliament, to take stock, 18 years after ECFR began. They assess what Europe misunderstood then; what it must confront now; and what the next two decades might look like.Why did Europe need a pan-European foreign policy think-tank like ECFR in 2007? Why does it still need one today? And how has ECFR has helped shape debates and policies over the past 18 years?Bookshelf:Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black SeaWhy Crimea matters European Security This podcast was recorded on November 24th 2025.

In this emergency podcast episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova, co-director of ECFR’s European Security Programme, and Jim O’Brien, former US assistant secretary of state for Europe and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, to dissect the leaked 28-point US-Russia framework for ending the Ukraine war.  Kyiv has rejected the proposal as a capitulation and Europeans are insisting on a seat at the table. Together, Mark, Jana and Jim examine the feasibility of the plan’s core demands, given Ukraine’s battlefield resilience and Europe’s pushback. What does the plan reveal about the Trump administration’s approach? Can Europe shape a settlement that safeguards Ukraine’s sovereignty? Or will Ukraine be coerced into a deal on Russia’s terms? This podcast was recorded on November 21st, 2025. Bookshelf: Drunk: How We Sipped, Danced, and Stumbled Our Way to Civilization by Edward SlingerlandAlgorithms for the People by Josh Simons

Europe’s most ambitious defence project is in deep trouble. Europe’s Future Combat Air System (FCAS), presented as the crown jewel of Franco-German cooperation, was meant to deliver a next-generation defence system ready to meet the demands of an increasingly dangerous world. Instead, the FCAS showcases diverging visions of European air power and raises questions about the continent’s strategic autonomy.This week, Mark is joined by Ulrike Franke, ECFR senior policy fellow and expert on defence, security and drones. Together, they explore why FCAS keeps running into dead ends—from persistent rifts between Dassault and Airbus to political disagreements between Paris and Berlin.What do the developments around the FCAS reveal about the strength of the Franco-German motor in the EU? What happens if the project collapses? And what would it mean for Europe’s quest for strategic autonomy?Bookshelf:Char de combat: obsolescence ou renaissance? by Léo Péria-PeignéThe ideas letter curated by Leonard BenardoThis episode was recorded on November 19th 2025

Across Europe, immigration and integration have become pressing political issues. The far right is surging in national polls, and debates over borders and national identity are reshaping party systems and public life.This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Sunder Katwala, director of the think-tank British Future and author of How to Be a Patriot, and Lawen Redar, spokesperson for integration for the Swedish Social Democratic party and a member of Sweden’s parliament. Together, they discuss how Sweden shifted from the EU’s most liberal migration country to tighter border controls, how parallel societies are emerging, and how both Sweden and Britain are struggling to define who “we” are in increasingly diverse societies.How can European societies combine stricter border policies with fair and effective integration? Can social democrats rebuild a shared narrative of national belonging without slipping into ethno-nationalism? And how can Europe avoid importing the most negative elements of America’s culture war?Bookshelf:How to Be a Patriot: Why love of country can end our very British culture war by Sunder KatwalaWhy Immigration Policy Is Hard: And How to Make It Better by Alan ManningHead, Hand, Heart: Why Intelligence Is Over-Rewarded, Manual Workers Matter, and Caregivers Deserve More Respect by David GoodhartThis episode was recorded on November 14th 2025

In recent years, military juntas have replaced democratically elected governments in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. These have expelled European forces and welcomed Russian mercenaries—yet stability in these countries remains elusive.This week, Mark is joined by Will Brown, senior policy fellow in ECFR’s Africa programme and author of the recent policy brief “The Bear and the Bot Farm: Countering Russian Hybrid Warfare in Africa”, and Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst at global risk consultancy Control Risks. Together, they unpack Russia’s ambitions in Africa and the shifting geopolitical landscape across the Sahel.How does Moscow’s vast propaganda machine continue to shape public opinion in the region? How is the Kremlin using disinformation to expand its influence? And what options remain for Europe in a region where its power is fast fading?Bookshelf:The Bear and the Bot Farm: Countering Russian Hybrid Warfare in Africa by Will BrownThe Lumumba Plot: The Secret History of the CIA and a Cold War Assassination by Stuart A. ReidAttack on Titan (TV Series 2013–2023)Beyond the Door of No Return by David DiopThe Strong Brown God: The Story of the Niger River by Sanche de GramontThis episode was recorded on November 5th 2025