Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

It is ten years since Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, and the country is once again facing political upheaval. Keir Starmer has resigned as prime minister after his Labour rival Andy Burnham’s decisive victory in the Makerfield by-election. At the same time, ECFR has released new research which suggests that the public view on Brexit has evolved significantly—despite much of the political debate still being rooted in the divisions of 2016. This week, Mark Leonard speaks with Marcus Roberts, CEO of Mandate Research and longtime Labour strategist, about how attitudes towards Brexit have changed and what this means for Britain’s political future. A decade on from Brexit, British politics remains turbulent, but public opinion is changing in ways that many politicians have failed to recognise. Bookshelf ECFR policy brief: Brexit isn’t working: British voters are ready for a European future   This podcast was recorded on June 24th 2026 

This week, Julien Barnes-Dacey welcomes Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Saudi Arabia’s minister of foreign affairs, for a fireside chat at ECFR’s Annual Council Meeting. In Prince Faisal’s first public appearance since the Iran-US memorandum of understanding was announced, he and Julien discuss what the deal means for the prospect of stability in the Middle East.Prince Faisal argues that the memorandum presents an important opportunity to end the conflict and create a diplomatic path forward. While he welcomes efforts to address Iran’s nuclear programme, he stresses that long-term verification mechanisms, freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and a broader regional security dialogue are essential to building confidence and preventing future crises. He also warns that recent attacks have created a deep trust deficit between Iran and its Gulf neighbours, making any meaningful economic rapprochement a long-term challenge.Julien and Prince Faisal explore Saudi Arabia’s role in supporting diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, the need to balance deterrence with diplomatic engagement, and how regional actors can rebuild trust after the conflict. They also discuss Israel’s opposition to the agreement, the future of Gaza, the importance of a political horizon for Palestinians and whether military approaches alone can deliver long-term security in the Middle East.Is the Iran-US agreement a foundation for a more durable regional security framework? How can Iran and its neighbours rebuild trust? What role should the US, Europe and Middle Eastern powers play in shaping the next phase of diplomacy? And is there still a viable path towards a broader political settlement in the Middle East?This episode was recorded on June 17th 2026.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Carl Benedikt Frey, associate professor of AI and work at the Oxford Internet Institute and author of How Progress Ends: Technology, Innovation and the Fate of Nations, to discuss whether AI enthusiasm is obscuring a more fundamental problem: the global slowdown in productivity and innovation.Carl argues that technological progress is neither inevitable nor guaranteed. Despite rapid advances in computing, the internet and AI, productivity growth is stagnating. He suggests that innovation depends on the institutions, incentives and political conditions—as well as technological breakthroughs—that allow societies to adapt and scale new ideas.Mark and Carl explore what the rise of AI reveals about the changing balance between innovation and concentration, why China’s embrace of open-weight AI models could challenge American technological leadership, and why Europe continues to struggle in digital industries despite its strengths in manufacturing.Is AI about to unleash a new era of prosperity? Why has productivity growth remained weak despite decades of technological advances? What does the AI race mean for competition between the US, China and Europe? And is the greatest risk facing advanced economies the end of progress itself?This episode was recorded on April 30th 2026.BookshelfMilton Friedman: The Last Conservative by Jennifer Burns

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Anton Jäger, lecturer in politics at Oxford University and author of Hyperpolitics: Extreme Politicization Without Political Consequences, to discuss why political engagement is surging across Western democracies—even as traditional political institutions continue to weaken.Anton argues that the West has entered a “hyperpolitics” era, marked by intense political engagement and protest but lacking durable organisations capable of sustaining change. Unlike the 1930s, to which the current era is often compared, today’s citizens are more politicised yet less likely to join institutions that enable long-term collective action.Mark and Anton explore how social media shapes political expression, why contemporary politics feels simultaneously more intense and less effective, and what figures like Donald Trump reveal about the relationship between political mobilisation and institutional power. They examine why right-wing movements appear to have adapted more successfully to the hyperpolitical age, and whether a new form of political organisation could eventually emerge from today’s fragmented landscape.What explains the growing gap between political engagement and political influence? Why are traditional institutions struggling to channel public discontent? Has the right found a more effective formula for the hyperpolitical era? And how could we move from hyperpolitics to a new age of institutional politics?This episode was recorded on March 27th 2026.Bookshelf:Hyperpolitics: Extreme Politicization without Political Consequences by Anton JägerNations and Nationalism by Ernest Gellner 

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Liam Byrne, a British Labour Party MP and chair of the House of Commons Business and Trade Select Committee, to talk about the rise of right-wing populism across Europe and why mainstream politics is struggling to respond. Drawing on his new book, Why Populists are Winning and How to Beat Them, Byrne argues that widening wealth gap, declining local communities and broken promise of democracy have created fertile ground for populist movements.Together, Mark and Liam explore the different groups of voters supporting populist parties, the powerful networks funding and amplifying populist movements, and why mainstream parties may be making a strategic political mistake by chasing harder-line rhetoric.The conversation ultimately tackles why more voters are turning away from mainstream parties, the roles economic stagnation, cultural pessimism and immigration play in driving support for populists, and how wealthy donors, media ecosystems and digital platforms have reshaped populist discourse across Europe and beyond.BookshelfBillionaire Backlash: The Age of Corporate Scandal and How it Could Save Democracy - Pepper Culpepper and Taeku Lee 

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, and Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, to introduce ECFR’s Iran nuclear monitor. The new online tool, updated monthly, forecasts Iran’s nuclear programme after a year of Israeli and American strikes, and maps possible paths for future negotiations, inspections and escalation. Almost a year on from the first US and Israeli bombings of Iran, uncertainty is growing around the future of the country’s nuclear programme. With a fragile ceasefire in place, Mark, Kelsey and Ellie discuss the six scenarios outlined in the Iran nuclear monitor and whether Europe has a role in shaping negotiations. They also suggest that military strikes alone have not resolved the nuclear dilemma: instead, any durable agreement will likely depend on phased confidence-building, intrusive inspections and difficult political compromises on both sides. Together, they explore three critical questions shaping the future of peace negotiations: What will happen to Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium? Can Tehran and Washington overcome disagreements over uranium enrichment and the duration of a moratorium on Iran’s nuclear activities? And how can international inspectors rebuild monitoring after nearly a year without full access to Iran’s nuclear sites? The link to the Iran nuclear monitor could be reached here.   

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Curtis Yarvin, American blogger and political thinker, to talk about the ideas reshaping parts of the American right and Silicon Valley. Known for his critiques of liberal democracy, bureaucracy and what he calls “the cathedral”, Yarvin reflects on his intellectual journey from libertarianism to monarchism and explains why some of his arguments have an audience among tech figures and Trump supporters. Together Mark and Curtis explore the growing alliance between parts of Silicon Valley and MAGA, and why he believes modern governments are too procedural and inefficient to cope with technological and political change. From AI and automation to the future of human labour, he argues that the 21st century will force societies to rethink the purpose of government and the structure of the economy itself. As debates around democracy, technology and elite power intensify, this episode asks: why are more people losing faith in liberal democratic institutions? And can modern governments function effectively in an age of technological transformation? Bookshelf  The Machiavellians: Defenders of Freedom by James Burnham  Latter-Day Pamphlets by Thomas Carlyle  Popular Government by Henry Maine 

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by David Runciman, British political theorist and philosopher, to explore whether today’s sense of crisis really marks the end of democracy—or something more complex. As the global order fragments, Runciman argues that democracy itself is not disappearing, but the forces shaping the world no longer fit the model that worked for the past 50 years.From shifting demographics and rising inequality, to a transforming technological landscape, together Mark and David explore why systems that once seemed stable are now under strain. In a world which is both more and less democratic, liberal states face pressure from within and without.Rather than predicting collapse, the discussion asks how democracies can evolve. What needs to change and what happens if it doesn’t?Bookshelf Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse by Luke Kemp

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ayşe Zarakol, professor of international relations at Cambridge University, to explore whether today’s global crises signal disorder or a deeper shift toward “unorder,” where shared rules and assumptions are no longer relevant. Drawing on historical parallels—from the interwar period to the upheavals of the 17th century—Zarakol suggests that this may be the start of a longer era of fragmentation. Together, they examine what this means for Europe, from letting go of old ways of thinking to redefining its role in a more unpredictable world. Rather than restoring a fading order, the focus shifts to a more urgent scenario: what is worth preserving and how can Europe adapt to chaos to survive? This podcast episode was recorded on 26th of February.