Decoding the Shopper

Will chocolate prices finally come down?Sam Hart and Jackson Woods unpack the big question facing confectionery right now: with cocoa prices falling sharply, are shoppers about to see cheaper chocolate on shelves? The answer is more complicated than it seems.From commodity buying cycles and retailer negotiations to promotions, shrinkflation, and the psychology of indulgence during difficult economic periods, the team explores why falling input costs don’t automatically translate into lower shelf prices.Using real-world case studies from butter, coffee, and sugar confectionery, they break down:Why manufacturers may resist deflationHow promotions could become the new battlegroundThe role of shopper behaviour and “treat culture”What history tells us about inflation, substitution, and recoveryWhy Christmas tubs could be one of the first signs of changePlus, a look ahead at how enhanced shopper panel data will help brands better understand impulsive purchasing and convenience channel trends in the months ahead.

British shoppers hunt for deals amid Middle East uncertainty. Fraser McKevitt, our head of retail, gives an update on the UK grocery market share over the 12 weeks to 19 April 2026.

Watch podcast on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ak2by4amTbgLaunches create activity. Routines decide whether it lasts.In the third article of our Innovation Advantage series, we examine how advantage is protected when markets tighten and substitution rises.We look at where routine stability begins to weaken: price expectations, discount dependence, product experience, and the quiet shift toward simpler substitutes.For innovation leaders, revenue managers and brand teams, the challenge is clear: how do you ensure a launch keeps its place in routine once the launch moment fades?Speak to and expert and find out more: Creating the innovation advantage - Worldpanel by Numerator

British grocery inflation holds steady as shoppers prepare for Easter. Fraser McKevitt, our head of retail, gives an update on the UK grocery market share over the 12 weeks to 22 March 2026.

Watch podcast on YouTube: The innovation advantage: How advantage can driftIncrementality ranges from -40% to +40% — even when share grows. Share gain doesn’t equal advantage.In episode 2 of our innovation series we discuss:·       Why 50–80% price premiums can hold — if designed properly·       How 15–25% smaller packs shape trial without eroding value·       Why promotions should drive discovery, not dependency·       The channel choices that reinforce premium positioningIncrementality isn’t luck. It’s architecture. When pack, price, promotion and channel are designed as behaviour shapers, not commercial afterthoughts, innovation performs very differently.Speak to and expert and find out more: Creating the innovation advantage - Worldpanel by Numerator

Watch podcast on You Tube: https://youtu.be/hn0rCMYo5YE 48% of launches reduce category spending. That’s not a typo. Nearly half of innovation doesn’t expand the category, it redistributes spend. In Episode 1 of our podcast series focused on Innovation: The innovation advantage: How advantage is built. We look at what happens after launch as most innovation looks good at launch. But what matters is what happens when:•       The spotlight moves on•       The promotion ends•       The numbers normalise We unpack why behavioural direction, repeat, repertoire role, occasion expansion, is the real measure of advantage. Find out more: Creating the innovation advantage - Worldpanel by NumeratorRead more: https://worldpanelbynumerator.com/insights/innovation-advantage-fmcg-category-growth

Shoppers seek romance at home and show love for online. Fraser McKevitt, our head of retail, gives an update on the UK grocery market share over the 12 weeks to 22 February 2026.

Christmas may be over, but the real story is just beginning.In this special episode, Andrew Walker is joined by retail experts from England, Ireland and Scotland to unpack what Christmas 2025 reveals about shopper behaviour and what it signals for 2026 and beyond.The signals are clear:Growth is harder. Shoppers are sharper. Loyalty is fragile.From HFSS legislation reshaping store layouts to the rise of low and no alcohol alongside record festive celebration, this conversation goes beyond “what happened” and asks the more urgent question:Who is ready for what happens next?If you’re planning for 2026 and beyond, this isn’t hindsight — it’s foresight.Chapters: 00:00 – Introduction00:13 – Opening01:17 – Reflection on Christmas 2025 (GB, Ireland and Scotland)05:55 – How shoppers responded to Christmas depending on their financial position (pressure groups)10.41 – How the industry is responding – promotions12:25 – Different choices by different retailers16:58 – Predictions for 202623:14 – Advice for planning in 2026 and beyond26.33 – Close 

New Year nutrition reset: shoppers seek balance while managing budgets. Fraser McKevitt, our head of retail, gives an update on the UK grocery market share over the 12 weeks to 25 January 2026.