Decision Points

Recent polling shows that U.S. public opinion on Israel has plunged to historic lows after the grueling two-year war in Gaza and amid the unpopular U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Is American public support for Israel undergoing a fundamental shift, or is the current backlash temporary? What role will changing American public attitudes toward Israel play in the midterm elections and in U.S. Middle East policy moving forward?Host David Makovsky sits down with veteran Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg and former senior Trump National Security Council official Victoria Coates to go beyond the numbers, understand why so many Americans have soured on today's Israel, and explain what can be done.Victoria Coates served in 2019-20 as deputy national security advisor for the Middle East and North Africa and served earlier in the first Trump administration as senior director for strategic communications at the National Security Council. She is the vice president of the Heritage Foundation’s Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy.Stanley Greenberg is a New York Times best-selling author and a polling adviser to presidents, prime ministers, and CEOs worldwide. He was the senior pollster for President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore, as well as for British Prime Minister Tony Blair, South African President Nelson Mandela, and Israeli Prime Minster Ehud Barak.

Almost three years after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, assault on Israel, the Palestinian jihadist group has been battered but not destroyed. Hamas has consolidated its control over the most densely populated portion of Gaza. Meanwhile, President Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza remains stalled, and Israel holds the bulk of the Strip. U.S. presidential envoy Jared Kushner recently met directly with Hamas leaders, even as the new Board of Peace is struggling to make progress toward Hamas's disarmament and Gaza's reconstruction. Will Hamas really disarm, or is it just stalling? Could Hamas ever transform itself into a widely accepted Palestinian political party, as Turkey and Qatar urge? And is there a way toward a better new chapter for Palestinians in Gaza? Host David Makovsky sits down with former U.S. and Israeli intelligence officials, Matthew Levitt and Neomi Neumann, to discuss the future of Hamas and Gaza. Matthew Levitt is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and the director of its program on counterterrorism and intelligence. He served in 2005-07 as deputy assistant secretary for intelligence and analysis at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Neomi Neumann is an adjunct fellow at The Washington Institute. She formerly served as the head of the research unit at Israel’s Shin Bet domestic-security agency and with Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The recent NATO summit in Ankara raised the already high temperatures between Israel and Turkey, two major regional powers. President Trump says he's considering selling U.S. F-35 stealth fighters to Turkey despite the opposition of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Meanwhile, Israel and Turkey remain at loggerheads over Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas even as Israel and Turkey compete for influence in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean. As Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan jockey for favor with President Trump and face rising criticism from Congress, are two key American allies headed for a collision?Host David Makovsky discusses the increasingly tense Israeli-Turkish relationship with Tamir Hayman, a former head of Israel's military intelligence service, and James Jeffrey, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey. Tamir Hayman, a major general in the reserves of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), is executive director of the Institute for National Security Studies, a think tank in Tel Aviv, Israel. He served as chief of the IDF's Intelligence Directorate from 2018-21. James F. Jeffrey is a distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute and a former U.S. ambassador to both Turkey and Iraq. He served as U.S. special envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in the first Trump administration and as a deputy national security adviser in the George W. Bush administration.

The Gaza war is over, but the misery on the ground continues. Reconstruction in the Gaza Strip has stalled; Hamas refuses to disarm; and the world's attention has moved on to the Iran war and other issues. Gaza remains bitterly divided: Hamas retains its grip on Gaza's densely populated coast, and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu ​recently said that he had directed Israel's military to seize 70% of the strip. With President Trump's 20-point peace plan stalled, Palestinians in Gaza continue to endure appalling humanitarian conditions.Host David Makovsky sits down with former Palestinian Authority peace negotiator Ghaith al-Omari and American-Israeli security expert Shira Efron to discuss ways to make progress in postwar Gaza. Ghaith al-Omari is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and a former advisor to the Palestinian Authority's negotiating team during the 1999–2001 permanent-status talks with Israel.Dr. Shira Efron is RAND Corporation's distinguished Israel policy chair and has also worked at Israel Policy Forum, the Center for American Progress, and other think tanks.

The conflict may be over, but the shockwaves of the Iran war are still spreading. The United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states endured Iranian drone and missile strikes; Iran withstood weeks of bombardment from the U.S. and Israel, which have perhaps the world’s two strongest air forces; and leaders across the region have been left wondering if they can rely on the U.S. for security. Gulf countries face a choice between uniting against Iran or accommodating the increasingly IRGC-dominated regime in postwar Tehran. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu fears that President Trump will blame Israel for the war’s shortcomings and constrain Israel’s ability to act against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Meanwhile, the Lebanese government will struggle to resist Iran and Hezbollah’s efforts to sideline Beirut and scuttle its peace talks with Israel. Host David Makovsky sits down with former top U.S. Middle East diplomat Barbara Leaf and former National Security Council official Kirsten Fontenrose to understand the regional fallout of the war.Kirsten Fontenrose served in 2018 as senior director for the Gulf at the National Security Council and is now a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.Ambassador Barbara Leaf served from 2022-25 as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, from 2014-18 as U.S. ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, and from 2013-14 as deputy assistant secretary of state for the Arabian Peninsula. She is now senior international policy advisor at the law firm Arnold & Porter.

Artificial intelligence is becoming increasingly central to U.S. strategy in the Middle East. AI has played a pivotal role in the current Iran war, even as the U.S. is deepening its AI investments in the region. Israel and the Gulf are also jockeying to become key partners in the regional AI landscape. Host David Makovsky sits down with two top analysts, former Israeli National Security Council aide Avner Golov and former Pentagon official Grant Rumley, to understand the opportunities and pitfalls that AI poses for American policymaking in the Middle East.Avner Golov is vice president of research and alliances at MIND Israel, a Tel Aviv-based strategic-advisory firm, and a former senior director for foreign policy on Israel's National Security Council.Grant Rumley is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, where he directs the program on great power competition. From 2018-21, he served on the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy's Middle East team in roles including deputy chief of staff, Israel director, Jordan director, and Syria director.