Coffee House Shots

This weekend’s Coffee House Shots digs into the growing debate over whether Keir Starmer should tack left on the economy as voters peel away to the Greens and Lib Dems – and why some in Labour think its migration stance is now more popular with their own voters than ever. Are Labour tacking left? But beyond policy, a deeper question looms: is Westminster’s obsession with ‘super-advisers’ drowning out the government’s message? Tom Baldwin argues that leaks, briefing wars and the hunt for the next ‘power-behind-the-throne’ are undermining Labour’s ability to tell a coherent story, while Tim Shipman asks why Starmer still struggles to communicate the values that drive him.James Heale speaks to Tim Shipman and Tom Baldwin, Keir Starmer's biographer.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

There has been a flurry of UK-European activity across Britain this week, with the German state visit in London, the Norwegian Prime Minister signing a defence agreement in Scotland and the British-Irish council meeting in Wales today. Perhaps then it's inevitable that speculation over closer ties between the UK and the EU has re-emerged. Could Labour seek to rejoin the Customs Union? Would this help or hinder Reform? And would the EU even stomach it? Plus – Liz Truss launches a new show today. Will she say anything new?James Heale and Charles Grant from the Centre for European Reform join Patrick Gibbons to discuss.Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Reform are in the money. This morning the Electoral Commission has dropped the latest figures on political donations, and Reform are streets ahead. Former Tory donor Christopher Harborne has handed Nigel Farage £9 million, what we believe to be a record amount from a single donor. How much impact will this have on Reform’s chances of electoral success? How much influence do political donors have over how their money is spent?Elsewhere, Reform are conducting a press conference later this afternoon where they will be sticking it to Labour over its decision to postpone more local elections. Without new mayoral elections in four more areas, where are Reform going to spend their new cash?Oscar Edmondson speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Today we’re going to be talking about David Lammy, and his brand new plans to drastically reduce the number of jury trials in the UK in an attempt to address the backlog. With the backlog of cases due to be heard in courts already at 78,000, and heading for 100,000, the Justice Secretary believes that only radical solutions can tackle the ‘courts emergency’. But is he being too radical? This comes on the same day that Lammy announced that 12 prisoners have been accidentally released in the last three weeks.But first, the Budget fallout continues and there has been a resignation but – crucially – it’s not the Chancellor. After the OBR leaked the Budget early, its chairman Richard Hughes has taken the fall and resigned last night. Does this ease or increase the pressure on Rachel Reeves?Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Isabel Hardman.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Lots has happened over the weekend – Your Party (as they are now actually called) have proven to be the gift that keeps on giving, there been another defection to Reform and Rachel Reeves stands accused of lying about the extent of the fiscal blackhole in her pre-Budget briefings.Some within Labour see it as a victory of sorts for Rachel Reeves that, so far, the post-Budget debate has focused mostly on the run-up to her statement rather than the measures it contained. However Keir Starmer has been mobilised this morning to give an 'everything is fine' speech in support of the Chancellor, with whom his fate is intertwined. Could she be forced to go? How serious is this? Lucy Dunn speaks to James Heale and Tim Shipman. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows.Rachel Reeves says she can be trusted. But did she lie in the run-up to the budget?Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill.

Throughout the years, the only person permitted to drink inside the House of Commons is the Chancellor, so what has been the tipple of choice for each resident of Number 11 dating back to Benjamin Disraeli? Following Rachel Reeves Budget this week, Michael Simmons and James Heale drink their way through the ages, discuss the historical context of each Budget, and question whether Rachel Reeves has the toughest job of them all.This episode was originally recorded for Michael Simmons's new podcast Reality Check. Search Reality Check wherever you subscribe to your podcasts.

With Budget week finally at an end, certain mysteries remain. Chief among them is why the Chancellor decided to give an emergency speech preparing the public for a rise in income tax.On 4 November, Rachel Reeves summoned journalists to Downing Street early in the morning to warn that ‘the productivity performance we inherited is weaker than previously thought’. She then refused to rule out hiking income tax rates – sending a clear signal to markets that rises were coming. Nine days later, however, the Treasury let it be known via the FT that income tax increases would not be needed after all. When the gilt market reacted badly – assuming Reeves had abandoned fiscal tightening – Bloomberg was quickly briefed that the U-turn was due to a more favourable picture from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) watchdog.Now that the dust has settled, however, the facts don’t support any of this. For starters, despite Reeves’s comments about the weak ‘productivity performance’, there was no productivity-related black hole to plug. It wasn’t that the downgrade to productivity growth was milder than expected – in fact it was severe, amounting to £16 billion. But this was more than offset by a £31 billion increase in expected tax receipts, driven by persistent inflation pushing up wages and making the economy more ‘tax rich’. The result: no black hole at all. Before her Budget measures were included – the benefits U-turns and spending increases – Reeves was actually sitting on a £4 billion surplus against her fiscal rules. She didn’t technically need to do anything.To discuss the black hole mystery, Megan McElroy is joined by Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons. They also cover new data on the UK's brain drain, and assess whether the figures should be a cause for concern.