Asia Pacific Defence Reporter

In a breaking story, there is very credible reporting that the UK has deferred placing an order for future attack submarines - SSN AUKUS - until 2028. This is directly contrary to what we are being told by our government, the RAN and Defence officials. We are in the process of donating $5 billion to the UK industrial base to build submarines that haven't even been ordered.The situation in the US is no different with the Government Accounting Office - their equivalent of the ANAO - reporting on 27 August that the SSN maintenance and disposal system is a huge mess, years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget. Just like the situation in the UK, we are being lied to. We are being told that US SSN maintenance is improving when in fact it is getting worse.Speaking of getting worse - the situation in the Middle East risks spiralling completely out of control. The Houthis in Yemen now control the critical passage between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and are threatening Saudi shipping. After the US midterms in November - if they go ahead - President Trump will have a free hand and might decide to escalate the conflict, with unforeseeable consequences.

As the United States continues to isolate itself, the rest of the world is starting a process of realignment - with the exception of Australia, of course. More information is becoming available about how we are being turned into a giant US military base, without any public discussion. At the same time, several opinion polls are showing that even though the alliance with the US remains vital in the minds of a majority of Australians, the pattern is shifting decisively.For those under the age of 35 - the nation's future leaders - the trend is clear: increasing trust in China and decreasing confidence that the US would come to Australia's aid during a conflict. Is this shift reflected in government policy? Of course not, as we rush to further ingratiate ourselves with the flailing Trump administration. Meanwhile, China is also transforming but in an economic sense moving from a manufacturer to a creator and innovator - something APDR witnessed last week as a guest at the Asia Pacific Media Forum in Shenzhen.There could be some powerful lessons for Australia in how small, high technology, AI enabled systems can massively increase self reliance.

The U.S. is continuing to demonstrate its unreliability as a security partner on an almost daily basis - something our politicians and Defence officials refuse to acknowledge is happening. Latest pieces of idiocy include Donald Trump's decision to try to rename Lake Ontario to Lake America as a deliberate and childish insult to Canada. More disturbingly, a Pentagon report has been leaked saying the US plans to recognise Argentina's claim over the Falkland Islands if the UK doesn't increase Defence spending to 5% of GDP - an outrageous piece of blackmail. In Australia, the Saturday by-election for the WA seat of Secret Harbour has seen the election of a One Nation candidate with a massive 18% swing against Labor. Normally, State by-elections aren't hugely consequential for Federal governments - but this one might have national security implications. Just five days before the vote the Federal government announced a massive $12 billion investment (out of a total of $25 billion) in the nearby Henderson maritime precinct. Rather than impress voters, this huge infrastructure spend might have had the opposite effect.Also, Defence Minister Richard Marles has left for yet another visit to the US and UK spruiking complete nonsense about the strength of the relationship with Washington. He is unable to see what everyone else can - and that is the US is unravelling further almost every day.

We have a lot of foreign policy material to cover, starting with the Strait of Hormuz and President Donald Trump's idiotic war with Iran. Of all the Middle East countries that hate Iran, on the top of the list is the UAE. With a population of just 1.1 million people coupled with vast economic wealth, it seeks to interfere in the affairs of a number of other countries. We ask again - with all this wealth, why has Australia given about $100 million worth of AMRAAM missiles to them and why is a RAAF Wedgetail aircraft still deployed there?Probably more consequentially, a sudden rift is emerging between South Korea and the US, with President Trump now openly siding with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator and mass murderer. This is just an appalling development - South Korea is a vibrant democracy with a thriving, creative economy. North Korea is one big prison that has nothing to contribute to civilisation. Thankfully, Australia's Defence Minister Richard Marles has said publicly that Australia sides with South Korea - and also Japan, which is part of the mix. This is one of the rare occasions when we seem to have realised that the actions of the US are contrary to Australia's safety and security. It's a long overdue development - and let's hope it continues.However, there is now a very real prospect of South Korea developing a nuclear weapon if it can no longer rely on the US. If that happens Japan will instantly follow. Both countries are well prepared and could field and deliver a nuclear warhead in months. If that happens, where will it leave Australia?

Some reflections on vital infrastructure prompted by a journey on a high speed train from Luang Prabang in Laos to Kunming in Southern China.The part of the railway in Laos took a mere 5 years to build through some of the most difficult terrain imaginable. Around 60% of the line runs through tunnels. How is it that Laos - one of the poorest countries in Asia - can build infrastructure but Australia struggles. At least we will now have a Parliamentary inquiry into national resilience.We have a look at the strange episode where Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy said that the deployment of USN Virginia class submarines to HMAS Stirling would end in 2032. Since then the government has walked that back - but what was it all about? Did Australia just try to blackmail the US? Finally some thoughts on US military technology, which looks like it is veering in some very strange directions. However, our sycophants in Canberra refuse to acknowledge that something alarming is unfolding.

We start where we left off with some words about conventionally powered submarines. Here we have been told that only nuclear powered submarines can survive in a modern war - yet Canada, Germany and Norway are ordering a total of 24 advanced, stealthy non-nuclear submarines, which raises the question: are they suicidal idiots, or have Australians been misled? Clearly Australians have been misled.Then we unpack a few myths about submarines - they are a powerful deterrent but they do not deserve some sort of magical reputation. In the Australian context they have a very patchy record - we had none at all between 1914 and 1967 and somehow managed to survive. Except for 5 days in April 1914 Australian submarines have never fired a torpedo in anger. They have seen far less actual combat than almost every other part of the ADF, yet they have managed to fool politicians by a bit of showmanship.Finally some words on industry policy and how the Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance (GWEO) is starting to show some encouraging results. Let's continue to develop those skills and look at producing an air defence missile rather than continuing to rely on the U.S.

The mess in the Middle East continues with the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, with unpredictable consequences. Australia is an indirect participant through the continuing deployment of a RAAF Wedgetail Early Warning and Control aircraft to the UAE. We are told this is being used for defensive missions - but the only problem with that as we have no control over what the countries receiving it - including presumably Israel - do with the information.Closer to home, a Chinese submarine launched ICBM that came down in the South Pacific has caused a stir, and indeed it is an unwelcome development. However, it was a routine test and when you fire these things they have to come down somewhere. The new Chinese missile - the JL-3 - has a range in excess of 10,000km, meaning all of Australia is in range of it. Should we panic? Not yet, but we need to be aware of it and it highlights our lack of preparedness for missile defence, for which we can squarely blame the 2023 Defence Strategic Review.Finally, some words about Canada's decision to acquire 12 convention diesel electric submarines, which comes with massive economic benefits. Total German investment over the life of the program will be well over $100 billion. Compare this with the lunacy of Australia's approach to AUKUS Pillar One where we are giving away billions rather than receiving them. Why are we doing this? Because RAN submariners have bluffed our politicians and we will explain how.

The US has celebrated Independence Day with President Trump giving a hugely bombastic and historically inaccurate speech saying that he leads the greatest country ever and the American military will kick sand in the face of anyone it wants. What an ally. Then we look at an important speech given by Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy on 2 July. It was meant to be about Defence reform but he included a reference to Prime Minister Robert Menzies being a Nazi appeaser.This received a predictable reaction and it's unclear what the Minister hopes to gain by trying to turn Defence into a party political contest. At least he appears sincere about wanting to improve Defence - but for that to work the attitudes of people in the system have to change, along with some structural reform. He says that Defence has cumulatively wasted $29 billion - which is an extraordinary amount for which no one has been held to account.On AUKUS the government has wheeled out Senator Raff Ciccone to defend the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines saying they are necessary because Australia is surrounded by water. This ridiculous argument gets repeated over and over. Of course Australia is surrounded by water - any idiot knows that. No one is saying we don't need a Navy - what we question are the security benefits from this vastly expensive, risky undertaking and the government has no answers.

Uncertainty continues in the Middle East with no one in the Trump administration having a clue about what they are doing; the government of Israel is out of control - and Iranian hardliners are in charge of their country. It is possible that Donald Trump is losing interest because the world economy hasn't yet collapsed. All the Australians who cheered on the US might wish to reflect on the consequences.Then we look at some surveys showing that trust in the US as an ally has plummeted. The same pattern is true in Australia, but our politicians seem completely immune. Next, a major study of increased defence spending that shows Australia way down the list with no meaningful increase despite all the rhetoric from the government. Finally, some worrying information about the F-35 program - as if Australia is not already too dependent on US hardware.