Asia Pacific Defense Report

We start with a retrospective chat about the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster in the USSR and the corrosive effects of secrecy and cover ups. Australia is thankfully not like the Soviet Union – far from it – but the government management of information about Defence and national security is becoming increasingly paranoid, self-destructive and harmful. It is now routine for all media requests to be totally ignored by the Department and for Ministers to propagate an entirely false picture of the status of the ADF – and in particular ignore the consequences of trying to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. This goes right to the top – including Ministers and senior military figures – who rather than provide useful information rely instead on cheap appeals to patriotism. This is irrational and harmful. Thankfully there are some positive examples from the U.S. about how the dissemination of information could, and should, occur.

An industry source has described the General Purpose Frigate project as a “goat rodeo”, but before we get to that a few words about the cancellation of SEA 1905. This was the latest RAN effort to improve mine warfare capabilities – and after 5 years of effort on the part of three bidders has been abruptly cancelled. No reason has been given but it looks to be because Australia will soon transfer $4.7 billion to profitable US submarine construction companies. However, mine warfare is a vital capability, particularly if you hope to operate nuclear-powered submarines. A few words about the IIP – and the big takeaway is that funding is only available for the new submarines and general purpose frigates. This means Navy will receive 38% of the acquisition budget – more than Army, RAAF and Cyber combined. Finally the Luerssen corvette offer – and someone has to find out why it was apparently ignored by the Independent Review into the surface fleet. It’s the only way of rapidly delivering capability with all ships constructed at Henderson with an existing Australian supply chain giving 80% local content.

First some good news – an extra $100 million of military aid for Ukraine. It’s not enough and Australia could be doing a lot more, but at least it’s a move in the right direction. Next – the unfolding disaster of the General Purpose Frigate project. Some acquisitions are doomed from the very beginning and this is one of them. Firstly, the highly paid independent reviewers of the RAN future surface fleet couldn’t even get it right about how many designs from Korea are available. Secondly, the Minimum Viable Capability philosophy might force the RAN to buy ships that are incompatible with every other class because there will not be enough time to include CEA radars and the Saab 9LV combat management system. Also we make another unsuccessful attempt to shed light on how the impending $4.7 billion transfer to US submarine manufacturers was calculated. Does no one care? It’s wrecking the Australian Defence budget.

The National Defence Strategy and Integrated Investment Plan have been released, but in the short term this does nothing for Australia’s military capabilities – the serious funding increase is later in the decade. It also ignores the effect of inflation. The accompanying speech of Defence Minister Richard Marles at the National Press Club revealed a hilarious level of stupidity within the Defence establishment. The apparent logic of reducing the number of planned Infantry Fighting Vehicles from 450 to 129 is that our two Canberra class LHDs can only carry about 50 IFVs at a time – so why do we need more than that? Amazingly, this completely ignores the fact that ships can return to port and load more IFVs. It also ignores the fact that they can be transported by RAAF’s highly capable C-17 fleet. Then we have a look at nuclear-powered submarine funding – and of the approved $13 billion, one third of that is handed out to highly profitable US companies and the rest goes on digging holes and pouring concrete. There’s zero added value. Finally, some good news for Ukraine – but not from Australia.

First we noticed a small piece of good news that a Wollongong-based steel manufacturer has landed a contract with a US submarine builder, but it’s likely to be very small. Which prompts the question: where is the $30 billion going that Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy says will be spent in Australia for AUKUS Pillar 1 – and it doesn’t take much to figure out that at least the first $10 billion is going on digging ditches and filling them with concrete. Not a lot of value adding there. The Defence budget, when used properly, can be a powerful tool for investing directly in the Australian economy. Very few governments understand that – and the current one appears clueless. Next – the looming disaster of the General Purpose Frigate. This is already a mess because not only is the media being kept in the dark but far more seriously the companies themselves have been forbidden from any contact with Australian industry. Let’s have a quick recap of how Australia successfully managed naval shipbuilding in the mid 1990s. Finally – an alternate future: the RAN could have started taking delivery in 2026 of the first of a class of powerful, missile firing corvettes. Instead we get nothing.

This episode is recorded in Seoul, the capital of South Korea. It’s a good opportunity to talk submarines and surface ships because of what is happening here. The occasion was an invitation to attend a signing ceremony for the contractual handover of the ROKS Shin Chae-ho an SSK of about the same displacement as the Collins class. However, this submarine is far more modern, with a Vertical Launch System and Air independent Propulsion, meaning it can stay fully submerged and completely silent for up to three weeks. This SSK is the 21st in a series of 27 South Korean conventional attack submarines. Then we toured the mighty ROKS Jeongjo the Great – the most recent KDX Aegis destroyer that weighs 11,000 tonnes and has 128 VLS cells. Construction time – 9 months. That’s not a misprint. Then finally we chat about the Australian General Purpose Frigates and the possibility that two Korean companies will bid. Defence has outrageously gagged all of the bidders from saying a single word to the Australian media about any aspect of the program, which is unacceptable in a democracy.

This episode focuses entirely on AUKUS, which is totally dominating the national security debate at the moment – and that’s not necessarily a good thing with everything else being ignored. First we had the news from the US that they will only build a single Virginia class submarine in 2025, which looks like a deceleration in their effort to reach a rate of 2.33 per year needed to have excess platforms to then sell to Australia. But for our government, it’s business as usual with the line that they are very confident that everything is going to plan. What is that confidence based on? One suspects nothing more than being patted on the head by senior US figures and being told, trust us – and thank you for the gift of $4.7 billion that you will start transferring later this year. Then there was another forelock-tugging performance during the visits from the UK of Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps. The Australian euphoria about signing a Status of Forces agreement is ridiculous – these things are simple, routine, legal agreements that are put in place all the time. Australian politicians need to stop grovelling.

We start with an unusual news item from Qatar: that country operates the NH90/Taipan family of helicopters – and they have an availability rate of 80%! But our Army – and the government – have been telling everyone that the main problem with Taipans was their lack of availability. Could it be that someone hasn’t been telling the truth? Also, we noticed an abandoned ex-Australian Special Forces vehicle in Ukraine and we wonder why some of these have been donated rather than being dismantled for spare parts and buried. By now it is too late for any of the Taipans to be reassembled for Australia – Army and the government are just too pig-headed for that – but there is still time to get them to Ukraine, even if it’s in the form of all the parts. And don’t look to the RAN to save us because they will soon be running out of surface ships. In the US the return of Donald Trump to the Presidency is suddenly looking more likely – and if he scraps AUKUS it might do us all a favour by bowing to the inevitable.

We start with the revelation that it’s not the Department or Ministers to blame for the lack of information about Defence going to Australian industry and the media – it’s our own security services! I know because Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy says so. Speaking of security services and the annual assessment provided by ASIO head Mike Burgess – what a circus. The claim that an Australian politician was a traitor has sent shock waves throughout the country. Why was the person not arrested and charged with espionage? Mr Burgess hides behind not wanting to reveal operational details – but no one is asking for those. The whole thing is either a grotesque exaggeration or has been cooked up to make ASIO look tough. Next an impassioned appeal at the NPC from Ukraine’s Ambassador Vasyl Myroshnychenko directly to Defence Minister Richard Marles, which will probably be ignored. It makes no sense. Finally for all the bureaucrats trying to hide from the Taipan fiasco: the details are eventually going to come out.