Asia Pacific Defence Reporter

For the centenary podcast we have chosen a theme - Ukraine. The ongoing fightback against the Russian invasion is relevant to Australia in several ways, including the reliability of the US as an ally and also for the future direction of military technology. The US has again suspended some military aid, and how Vladimir Putin must be rejoicing. The bureaucrat responsible is also the one currently reviewing AUKUS and he may well figure out a way to extract even more cash from gullible Australian politicians and Defence figures. As we have previously tried explaining, the entire procurement structure could be improved overnight and at zero cost by making the system far more transparent and we have drafted a memo for Richard Marles so he doesn't have to do it himself.

The US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities continue to dominate defence coverage - and in terms of Washington politics everyone has to agree with Donald Trump that they were obliterated. In a future joint operation, Australia would be expected to sing from the same song sheet. Let's not forget that he is continuing to support Russia - and that could have major implications for Australia. But the main theme is the TKMS bid for SEA 3000, the details of which have not come from the company because they would be in breach of Defence NDAs and people would be jailed as a consequence. However, there's enough information around to believe they will offer a low risk solution based on the Saab 9LV CMS and a number of sensors well known to the RAN. At the same time it is possible that Japan has been misled, or at least misdirected - by the insistence of Defence and the government that speed to capability is ahead of everything else.

Even on the very rustic Greek island of Zakynthos, it was impossible to remain isolated from world events such as the airstrikes by Israel and the US on Iran.While much of the commentary has split along the usual lines of conservatives around the world standing with the US, it is far from clear how close Iran was to producing a nuclear weapon - Israel has been calling wolf on this for the last 20 years.What was the motivation of President Donald Trump? Apparently he was encouraged by the positive Fox News coverage of Israel's earlier strikes.As for Australia, there's a very important issue in all of this that no one wants to talk about, namely why are we still blindly following an increasingly erratic Washington administration.

We bring you a special edition podcast from the Greek island of Zakinthos to discuss the current US administration’s review of AUKUS. It’s rather ominously worded to see if it fits President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda. Why do we always need to find out about these things from the Americans? Why can’t our own Defence Minister Richard Marles ever come clean about things such as how much we are giving to the US, and why they want us to lift Defence expenditure to 3.5% of GDP? As for the review itself, why would the US want to end the deal when there are still billions more dollars to be extracted from Australian taxpayers and gullible politicians?

After the previous podcast, many people might have been hoping for a description of the TKMS bid for SEA 3000. Sorry to disappoint, but the rules imposed by Defence block that, and we have figured out who is to blame. It's the probity lawyers - what a surprise. The media visit to Germany focused entirely on the parent yard build of the first three ships, and there is no doubt that TKMS and partner companies will be able to do that without working up a sweat. Then, some personal thoughts on strategic partnerships. Many people believe the relationship with Japan is so important that the Mogami should be automatically selected. But does it make sense to base partnerships on the purchase of equipment? Wouldn't it be better for that to be the domain of treaties and security guarantees? And shouldn't buying stuff work both ways if it's so important? Also, Ukraine is using drones to revolutionise warfare. We told you so.

Greetings from the northern German city of Hamburg and the beginning of a Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems media tour. They are one of two finalists for SEA 3000, the general purpose frigate project, but they are forbidden by Defence from discussing their proposal. This ridiculous level of secrecy seems to be in place purely to conceal Departmental incompetence and to cover up the growing possibility that no frigates will be built in Australia, ever.Some words about US demands that Australia increase Defence spending to as much as 5% of GDP and what looks like a major difference of opinion between the PM and Defence Minister as to whether or not we give in to that pressure.Then some details of an article in June APDR that AUKUS Pillar One has very little chance of success written by Dr Hans Ohff, Managing Director of the Australian Submarine Corporation during the critical years of the Collins program. Unlike politicians and bureaucrats he actually knows how difficult it is to successfully deliver submarines - and Australia is falling well short.

With Canberra starting to return to normal we have a bit more to discuss on the domestic front. Firstly a thank you to Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy, who agreed to an interview that will be published in full in June APDR. It was a wide ranging chat and we will continue to have different views on matters such as the Defence budget and also secrecy - but it's good to be in dialogue. Also during the week, a senior TKMS delegation was in town to discuss SEA 3000 and they are promoting the MEKO 200 as a low risk solution for Australia. On the international scene, tariff stupidity continues with Donald Trump threatening Europe with 50% on June 1 and the US company Apple with 25% if they continue making iPhones offshore. If Australian politicians want to get into the game of appeasing Trump, maybe we should offer to build a mega yacht for him.

We start with a clarification from the previous episode that Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy has retained responsibility for capability delivery, even though those words have been removed from his title.  And then a lot more about the unreliability of the US as an ally - a reality so obvious that everyone can see it, except for Australian politicians. The update of the list now includes the US coming to some sort of deal with the Houthis - ignoring everyone else - as well as having direct talks with Hamas and Iran. Israel wasn't even included on Trump's itinerary for his Middle East trip, possibly because they don't have any gold and marble palaces stuffed full of grovelling courtiers.Then let's at least have a laugh about Qatar's bribe of a luxury 747. No one in their right mind would accept it on cost grounds alone. Let's see what happens when the US demands Australia increase Defence spending to 3% of GDP.

We have a new Federal government ministry - and it's very much like the old one. Richard Marles retains Defence and Pat Conroy Defence Industry, though with the 'capability delivery" element seemingly removed. This was preceded by Richard Marles using his factional muscle to get rid of two highly competent Ministers in the form of Mark Dreyfus and Ed Husic. Let's backtrack a bit and review the only national security topic in the entire election campaign - whether Russia had requested a permanent military base on Indonesian soil. This cannot be ruled out because of the often opaque nature of Indonesian politics.  Then President Trump's failed trade war against China - though people shouldn't be celebrating just yet. Another feature of the new US administration is that it's making it clear it's available to the highest bidder.