Asia Pacific Defense Report

First we noticed a small piece of good news that a Wollongong-based steel manufacturer has landed a contract with a US submarine builder, but it’s likely to be very small. Which prompts the question: where is the $30 billion going that Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy says will be spent in Australia for AUKUS Pillar 1 – and it doesn’t take much to figure out that at least the first $10 billion is going on digging ditches and filling them with concrete. Not a lot of value adding there. The Defence budget, when used properly, can be a powerful tool for investing directly in the Australian economy. Very few governments understand that – and the current one appears clueless. Next – the looming disaster of the General Purpose Frigate. This is already a mess because not only is the media being kept in the dark but far more seriously the companies themselves have been forbidden from any contact with Australian industry. Let’s have a quick recap of how Australia successfully managed naval shipbuilding in the mid 1990s. Finally – an alternate future: the RAN could have started taking delivery in 2026 of the first of a class of powerful, missile firing corvettes. Instead we get nothing.

This episode is recorded in Seoul, the capital of South Korea. It’s a good opportunity to talk submarines and surface ships because of what is happening here. The occasion was an invitation to attend a signing ceremony for the contractual handover of the ROKS Shin Chae-ho an SSK of about the same displacement as the Collins class. However, this submarine is far more modern, with a Vertical Launch System and Air independent Propulsion, meaning it can stay fully submerged and completely silent for up to three weeks. This SSK is the 21st in a series of 27 South Korean conventional attack submarines. Then we toured the mighty ROKS Jeongjo the Great – the most recent KDX Aegis destroyer that weighs 11,000 tonnes and has 128 VLS cells. Construction time – 9 months. That’s not a misprint. Then finally we chat about the Australian General Purpose Frigates and the possibility that two Korean companies will bid. Defence has outrageously gagged all of the bidders from saying a single word to the Australian media about any aspect of the program, which is unacceptable in a democracy.

This episode focuses entirely on AUKUS, which is totally dominating the national security debate at the moment – and that’s not necessarily a good thing with everything else being ignored. First we had the news from the US that they will only build a single Virginia class submarine in 2025, which looks like a deceleration in their effort to reach a rate of 2.33 per year needed to have excess platforms to then sell to Australia. But for our government, it’s business as usual with the line that they are very confident that everything is going to plan. What is that confidence based on? One suspects nothing more than being patted on the head by senior US figures and being told, trust us – and thank you for the gift of $4.7 billion that you will start transferring later this year. Then there was another forelock-tugging performance during the visits from the UK of Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps. The Australian euphoria about signing a Status of Forces agreement is ridiculous – these things are simple, routine, legal agreements that are put in place all the time. Australian politicians need to stop grovelling.

We start with an unusual news item from Qatar: that country operates the NH90/Taipan family of helicopters – and they have an availability rate of 80%! But our Army – and the government – have been telling everyone that the main problem with Taipans was their lack of availability. Could it be that someone hasn’t been telling the truth? Also, we noticed an abandoned ex-Australian Special Forces vehicle in Ukraine and we wonder why some of these have been donated rather than being dismantled for spare parts and buried. By now it is too late for any of the Taipans to be reassembled for Australia – Army and the government are just too pig-headed for that – but there is still time to get them to Ukraine, even if it’s in the form of all the parts. And don’t look to the RAN to save us because they will soon be running out of surface ships. In the US the return of Donald Trump to the Presidency is suddenly looking more likely – and if he scraps AUKUS it might do us all a favour by bowing to the inevitable.

We start with the revelation that it’s not the Department or Ministers to blame for the lack of information about Defence going to Australian industry and the media – it’s our own security services! I know because Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy says so. Speaking of security services and the annual assessment provided by ASIO head Mike Burgess – what a circus. The claim that an Australian politician was a traitor has sent shock waves throughout the country. Why was the person not arrested and charged with espionage? Mr Burgess hides behind not wanting to reveal operational details – but no one is asking for those. The whole thing is either a grotesque exaggeration or has been cooked up to make ASIO look tough. Next an impassioned appeal at the NPC from Ukraine’s Ambassador Vasyl Myroshnychenko directly to Defence Minister Richard Marles, which will probably be ignored. It makes no sense. Finally for all the bureaucrats trying to hide from the Taipan fiasco: the details are eventually going to come out.

Just back from the Singapore air show, we have a few thoughts about the structure of defence industries – but the main topic is the government’s response to the review of the RAN surface fleet. There are some worthwhile developments, but how long will all of this take?What we are witnessing is 20 years of very poor planning because the Hobart class should have been in continuous production in 3-ship batches with new technology insertion. Luerssen have been shafted because they simply produced the Arafura class in a configuration specified by the RAN.  The cover up regarding the disposal of Taipan helicopters is continuing, but at least we have a public inquiry into the fatal Talisman Sabre crash. It might be that Ministers are finally waking up to the fact that the situation is by no means as simple as they might have been led to believe. Finally: the Tiger Armed Reconnaissance Helicopters – either donate them to Ukraine or start converting them for uncrewed operations working in conjunction with the future Apache attack helicopter fleet.