Ninety One | The Big Picture

After the recent optimism of market participants that sent US markets to record highs and bond yields tumbling, the mood has changed. Bond yields have risen sharply and frothy equities are well off their highs as inflation has proved stubbornly high. John Stopford analyses the data in the US and beyond. 

A new capex supercycle is forecast to shape the next decade, driven by a fusion of factors. Join strategist Sahil Mahtani as he delves into the historical backdrop, identifies key drivers, and explains what it means for investors.

Global commodities prices as measured by the CRB Index have increased around 14% in 2024 and investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about a meaningful long-term up cycle. From copper to cocoa and gold to PGMs, George Cheveley explains the fundamentals behind the rally and the prospect of it persisting and considers the outlook for the share prices of resources companies.

The year is still in Q1 but already it's billing as being all about politics and the price of money is justified. In a matter of days the US primaries have whittled down the US election to the familiar old candidates, the UK has delivered a surprise-free budget, the ECB has kept rates on hold while the Fed chair has merely changed the date of his speech to Congress. Markets meander upwards unfazed, but with more than 50 elections due in 2024, multiple reserve bank meetings and the ongoing spectre of wars, surely something must give? In an interview recorded on Friday 8th March, Russell Silberston analyses a packed diary. 

The shadow of a poorly performing JSE resources sector and the dollar price of certain commodities hung over the annual Mining Indaba in Cape Town. The PGM sector, which is one of South Africa’s most important export products, garnered much of the attention, but copper, gold and some bulk commodities also took centre stage. Dawid Heyl shares his perspective on the Indaba and the outlook for the sector.

Since 2021, major economic cycles have been out of sync. Tight policy in Europe and very loose policy in Japan, leads us to predict a great asymmetry over the next 12 months between the two. Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi-Asset Growth explains why we are long the yen versus the euro.

After a challenging year, Wenchang Ma sees brighter prospects for Chinese equities in 2024, with weak sentiment providing an entry point to invest in some of the world’s most attractive companies.

Historically high yields across global credit markets underpin a positive outlook for the asset class. With significant and rising dispersion, look out for plenty of compelling bottom-up opportunities, but also some no-go areas for investors.

Improving global growth and inflation dynamics are supportive for the asset class, but risks remain and a bottom-up approach will be vital for capturing the opportunities and building resilient portfolios.