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Wharton Moneyball
Wharton Moneyball - 1/15/20: Seth Walder, Alexandra Mandrycky
Seth Walder has been a sports analytics writer at ESPN since 2017, focusing on football and basketball coverage using quantitative metrics. His work includes topics ranging from season projections to player analysis based on NFL Next Gen Stats. He writes for ESPN.com and makes regular appearances across ESPN studio programming.
Prior to joining ESPN, he worked as a reporter for the New York Daily News for six years, primarily covering the New York Jets and New York Giants, with occasional analysis of the New York MLB, NBA and NHL teams as well as high school sports.
The London native attended Bowdoin College in Brunswick, Maine and was editor in chief of the Bowdoin Orient, while majoring in government studies.
Alexandra Mandrycky is the Director of Hockey Administration for the NHL’s forthcoming Seattle franchise where she leads on hockey strategy & research. Prior to joining the Seattle franchise, Alexandra worked in the Minnesota Wild’s front office.
The team will begin play for the 2021 season and it will be the first professional hockey team to play in Seattle since the Seattle Totems of the Western Hockey League played their last game in 1975.
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How Constraints Shape Creativity and Athletic Development
01:00:13|The right limits can lead to better ideas and better performance.David Epstein, bestselling author of The Sports Gene, Range, and Inside the Box: How Constraints Make Us Better, joins Wharton Moneyball to explore how constraints can strengthen creativity, focus, and decision-making.Epstein discusses the value of tight briefs and rapid prototypes, why first ideas are not always the best ideas, and why young athletes may benefit from playing multiple sports before specializing.
Breaking Down Randomness, Win Probability, and Competitive Balance Across Sports
01:01:15|If the best team does not always win, how much of sports success comes down to skill, strategy, or randomness?Eric Eager, Vice President of Football Analytics for the Carolina Panthers, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to examine the role of unpredictability in sports. The conversation explores whether the Home Run Derby is more revealing than it appears, how tournament design influences results, and why major competitions can feel random even when familiar contenders ultimately advance.The discussion also covers World Cup win probabilities, the importance of superstar players, NHL contracts and salary caps, the disappearance of 200-game winners in baseball, and whether momentum can explain the changing performance of elite golfers.
Rethinking How We Measure Soccer Performance
57:12|What if one of soccer’s most important analytics metrics is missing some of the most dangerous moments in a match?Recorded live with students from the Wharton Moneyball Academy, Jonathan Pipping, Ph.D. student and member of the Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Research Team, explains the limitations of expected goals and the development of XG+, a new approach that accounts for both the probability of a shot being taken and the likelihood of it becoming a goal. He discusses how player tracking data can reveal opportunities that traditional XG misses, why creating shooting opportunities may be more predictive than finishing ability, and how advanced metrics could help teams better evaluate player performance and transfer value.
Breaking Down the World Cup with Soccer Analytics Insights
01:07:59|Ravi Ramineni, Head of Analytics for the LA Galaxy, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to break down the expanded 48-team FIFA World Cup, discuss how analytics shapes player evaluation and front-office decision-making, predict the tournament's favorites and dark horses, and is followed by conversations on Serena Williams' Wimbledon return, and notable MLB trends.
What Unexpected Champions Teach Us About Sports
50:42|Neil Paine, sports data journalist and former FiveThirtyEight contributor, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to discuss the New York Knicks’ surprising title run, the Carolina Hurricanes’ Stanley Cup victory, the role of luck and player interactions in team success, and what early World Cup results reveal about the limits and strengths of sports analytics.
Breaking Down the Biggest World Cup Ever
01:02:23|Ryan O'Hanlon, ESPN staff writer, author of Net Gains, and Syracuse University instructor, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to analyze the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup, assess the favorites and dark horses, evaluate the outlook for the U.S. Men's National Team, and explain how analytics-driven innovations such as set pieces and long throw-ins are transforming soccer, before Cade Massey, Adi Wyner, and Shane Jensen discuss the spread of analytics across sports, playoff unpredictability, tournament design, and the evolving impact of NIL on college athletics.
Measuring Skill, Luck, and Competitive Balance in Sports
01:03:34|Greg Bond, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Americas at Man Group, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to discuss research on skill, luck, competitive depth, and predictive analytics across professional sports leagues, while Cade Massey, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner break down the NHL Stanley Cup Final, NBA Finals, NCAA championships, and innovative coaching strategies reshaping modern competition.
How Baseball Analytics Is Reshaping Hall of Fame Conversations
01:00:46|Cade, Eric, Shane, and Adi discuss NHL playoff hockey, expected goals models, statistical limits in measuring player performance, and how sports like hockey, soccer, baseball, and football differ in the way win probability builds and shifts during competition. Jay Jaffe, senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook, and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. joins the Moneyball team to break down early MLB season surprises, debate modern Hall of Fame standards for pitchers, explain the JAWS.
Breaking Down NBA Playoff Matchups Through Advanced Analytics
01:03:20|Ben Alamar, Author of Sports Analytics: A Guide for Managers, Coaches, and Other Decision Makers?, joins the Wharton Moneyball crew to analyze Victor Wembanyama’s playoff performances, explain advanced defensive metrics, debate NBA draft evaluation methods, and reflect on championship-building strategies across today’s NBA. The team also explores the “hot hand” phenomenon, debates managerial impact in baseball, analyzes NHL playoff momentum, and examines why unpredictability makes golf and tennis so compelling for sports analytics fans.