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Wharton Moneyball
Wharton Moneyball: CFB National Championship, NFL Playoffs, & Historic Quarterbacks
Ep. 132
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Show from 1/9/19
In this episode of Wharton Moneyball hosts Cade Massey, Adi Wyner, and Eric Bradlow get into the college football playoff national championship and predictive analytics. Then, we all want to know which NFL teams are on their way to the Super Bowl. Our hosts talk home field advantage and other useful measures to decide who will come out of the playoffs victorious. Plus Josh Hermsmeyer, writer for FiveThirtyEight and the founder of AirYards.com, joins the show to add to our football analytics conversation. All that and more on this weeks show! Tune in
Guest:
Josh Hermsmeyer - A writer for FiveThirtyEight and the Founder of AirYards.com where he works on all things football analytics.
Follow him on Twitter at @FriscoJosh
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When Analytics Meet Chaos in Football Playoffs
01:11:02|Neil Payne, sports analytics writer and creator of a leading sports Substack, discusses playoff parity, coaching impact, home-field advantage, and how analytics can—and can’t—explain who ultimately wins in today’s NFL and college football postseason. Cade, Eric, Shane & Adi also analyze hockey plus-minus limitations, Grand Slam betting dominance, Baseball Hall of Fame probabilities, and how NIL deals and the transfer portal are transforming competitive balance in college football.
Data-Driven NFL Playoffs and College Football’s Shifting Power
01:09:08|ESPN National Football Analyst Seth Walder, and Steven Godfrey, college football writer for Yahoo Sports and The Washington Post and co-host of the College Football Enquirer podcast, join Cade and Shane to examine the NFL playoff landscape through advanced metrics and unpack the College Football Playoff’s surprises, transfer portal strategy, and evolving SEC–Big Ten balance of power.
How AI and Bayesian Models Are Reshaping Sports Analytics
01:08:58|Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner examine how AI-driven metrics, model calibration, and Bayesian approaches inform quarterback evaluation, team upsets, and the evolving limits of sports analytics.
What Advanced Metrics Reveal About the 2025 NFL Season
46:55|Aaron Schatz, Chief Analytics Officer at FTN Fantasy and founder of Football Outsiders, joins Eric Bradlow to explore how DVOA and play-by-play analytics challenge conventional narratives about the 2025 NFL season, conference strength, playoff probabilities, and the growing influence of data in awards voting. Plus, Eric walks through real-world examples of using generative AI to forecast NBA win totals, college football playoff probabilities, and NFL Super Bowl odds, highlighting how modern models apply Bayesian reasoning, betting markets, and simulation-based analytics.
Breaking Down the College Football Playoff With Advanced Metrics
59:38|Bill Connelly, ESPN college football analyst and creator of SP+, Bill Connelly, joins Cade, Eric, Shane, and Adi to break down first-round playoff games, assess championship probabilities, and explain how analytics shape expectations in the expanded College Football Playoff. The Moneyball team also discusses the end of AFC quarterback dominance, and what today’s parity means for teams, windows, and dynasties across football.
Best of 2025
01:00:39|In this “Best of 2025” compilation, Cade Massey, Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner revisit top moments with Google Sports Trends Fanalyst Annanya Raghavan, NFL veteran and Athletes.org founder Brandon Copeland, bestselling baseball biographer Jane Leavy, and ESPN analyst Dean Oliver, showcasing their insights on search-driven fan engagement, athlete empowerment, the future of baseball, and analytics’ growing influence across the NBA.
Inside NFL Chaos: Power Rankings, Prediction, and Team Strength
57:44|Kevin Cole, proprietor of the Unexpected Points newsletter and former Pro Football Focus analyst, joins Eric Bradlow and Cade Massey, to explain how predictive modeling, adjusted scores, and power rankings reveal deeper insights into team performance amid one of the NFL’s most unpredictable seasons. Eric and Cade also break down college football playoff scenarios, potential conference shakeups, and remarkable early-season performances in both the NHL and NBA.
Data Science Innovations Driving New Insights Across Major Sports
01:00:18|Eric Bradlow and Adi Wyner examine surprising NBA and NFL performance patterns while highlighting the innovative sports analytics research conducted by students—including advancements in expected-goals modeling, rugby decision analytics, and tennis serve evaluation—showcasing how data science and AI are reshaping modern sports analysis.
How Evolving Data Trends Are Redefining Multi-Sport Performance
56:56|Neil Payne, freelance data journalist, analyst, joins Cade Massey, Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner to discuss current debates in baseball WAR, surprising developments in the NBA, the evolution of quantitative storytelling, and how emerging stars like Connor Bedard and innovative teams such as the Los Angeles Rams illustrate shifting dynamics across major sports.