Wharton Moneyball

If the best team does not always win, how much of sports success comes down to skill, strategy, or randomness?Eric Eager, Vice President of Football Analytics for the Carolina Panthers, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to examine the role of unpredictability in sports. The conversation explores whether the Home Run Derby is more revealing than it appears, how tournament design influences results, and why major competitions can feel random even when familiar contenders ultimately advance.The discussion also covers World Cup win probabilities, the importance of superstar players, NHL contracts and salary caps, the disappearance of 200-game winners in baseball, and whether momentum can explain the changing performance of elite golfers.

What if one of soccer’s most important analytics metrics is missing some of the most dangerous moments in a match?Recorded live with students from the Wharton Moneyball Academy, Jonathan Pipping, Ph.D. student and member of the Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Research Team, explains the limitations of expected goals and the development of XG+, a new approach that accounts for both the probability of a shot being taken and the likelihood of it becoming a goal. He discusses how player tracking data can reveal opportunities that traditional XG misses, why creating shooting opportunities may be more predictive than finishing ability, and how advanced metrics could help teams better evaluate player performance and transfer value.

Ravi Ramineni, Head of Analytics for the LA Galaxy, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to break down the expanded 48-team FIFA World Cup, discuss how analytics shapes player evaluation and front-office decision-making, predict the tournament's favorites and dark horses, and is followed by conversations on Serena Williams' Wimbledon return, and notable MLB trends.

Neil Paine, sports data journalist and former FiveThirtyEight contributor, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to discuss the New York Knicks’ surprising title run, the Carolina Hurricanes’ Stanley Cup victory, the role of luck and player interactions in team success, and what early World Cup results reveal about the limits and strengths of sports analytics.

Ryan O'Hanlon, ESPN staff writer, author of Net Gains, and Syracuse University instructor, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to analyze the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup, assess the favorites and dark horses, evaluate the outlook for the U.S. Men's National Team, and explain how analytics-driven innovations such as set pieces and long throw-ins are transforming soccer, before Cade Massey, Adi Wyner, and Shane Jensen discuss the spread of analytics across sports, playoff unpredictability, tournament design, and the evolving impact of NIL on college athletics.

Greg Bond, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Americas at Man Group, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to discuss research on skill, luck, competitive depth, and predictive analytics across professional sports leagues, while Cade Massey, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner break down the NHL Stanley Cup Final, NBA Finals, NCAA championships, and innovative coaching strategies reshaping modern competition.