Weekly Investment Update

With Elon Musk, it is always difficult to separate the business from the circus.There are the feuds, the political interventions, the outrageous predictions and the daily melodrama. Whether you love him or hate him, the Musk world has become a kind of global soap opera, played out across social media, financial markets and, increasingly, geopolitics.

Trying to forecast where exchange rates will move next ranks among the more thankless exercises in finance, arguably harder than predicting equity markets because it demands getting the relative view right on two economies simultaneously, not just one. A currency's fate hinges on geopolitics, debt to GDP, inflation trajectories, interest rate differentials, bond yields, and sovereign creditworthiness, all interacting at once and often pulling in different directions. Yet for investors domiciled in countries with historically weaker currencies, ignoring this dimension of portfolio construction is not really an option.

Saturday's Financial Times carried a headline built for maximum unease: US tech giants have slashed 140,000 jobs this year, even as they pour unprecedented sums into artificial intelligence. US tech companies have eliminated close to 140,000 jobs since January, accounting for more than a third of every layoff announced nationwide, per an FT review of corporate filings and Challenger data. Look closer and the picture is more layered than the headline allows. Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet are meanwhile budgeting $725B for data centers this year, with Oracle putting up another $70B, spending that dwarfs the savings from the cuts themselves. Interestingly, the market is not entirely convinced by the framing either. Companies citing AI as a factor in job cuts have underperformed the Nasdaq by almost 10% in the 30 trading days following their announcements, suggesting the market doesn't entirely buy the stories that the companies are telling.

Congratulations are in order for Spain, crowned champions of the 2026 FIFA World Cup after a tense 1-0 extra-time victory over Argentina at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Spain won the FIFA World Cup with a 1-0 extra-time win over Argentina, marking the Spanish men’s team’s second World Cup title, after winning their first in 2010. Ferran Torres struck the decisive blow deep into extra time, and fittingly it was a defensive masterclass that got them there. Spain’s run to the title was a defensive masterclass, with wins over four of the world’s top ten teams, and they are the first World Cup champion to win the title while only conceding a single goal.

In today’s episode, we explore the economic impact of the FIFA World Cup beyond the football itself. We examine who really benefits financially, why host cities often struggle to generate the returns they expect, and how even global financial markets can be influenced by the fortunes of national teams.

Welcome to the Dominion Weekly Investment Update.This week, we explore why interest rate decisions remain one of the most important drivers of financial markets. From the recent technology sell-off to Alan Greenspan’s legacy and the first meeting led by the new Federal Reserve Chairman, we examine how monetary policy continues to shape the global economy and what it means for long-term investors.

This week, we explore how some of the most talked-about events in the world today — from the 2026 FIFA World Cup to SpaceX’s historic IPO and the latest decisions from the Federal Reserve — highlight a fundamental lesson for investors: the importance of separating noise from genuine signals. In a landscape shaped by headlines, volatility and conflicting opinions, we examine why experience, discipline and a long-term perspective remain essential tools for navigating markets successfully.

The 23rd FIFA World Cup is under way, running from 11 June to 19 July 2026 across 16 cities spanning the United States, Mexico, and Canada. For the first time in the tournament's history, 48 teams compete for the prize, up from the 32-team format that had been in place since France 1998. Over one thousand players, dozens of nations, and one trophy. The parallel with fund management is deliberate, and it runs considerably deeper than most people recognise.