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Unhedged
Trade wars, real wars and the markets
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As Donald Trump threatens a takeover of Greenland, Europe responds with military deployments, sending the markets into a low-key swivet. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Alphaville reporter Toby Nangle discuss what financial weapons the EU has to defend against an increasingly warlike US president. Also they go long Dutch tech company ASML and long a return to live television.
For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.
You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.
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The rout in UK and European bonds
20:34|The plunge in UK and European bonds has been expensive for hedge funds, whose bets have gone sideways. But it could be expensive for regular people too, at least according to Katie Martin and her guest, the FT’s senior markets correspondent Ian Smith. Today on the show, they unpack how a drop in the value of European debt will drive up costs for the average person. Also, they go long Harry Potter on television and short boy kibble. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
Why are markets listening to Trump?
22:35|When President Donald Trump talks, markets listen. But why? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out if the markets really are chasing the news and if that makes any sense whatsoever. Then they discuss gold’s steep drop and an awfully suspicious trade in the oil markets. Also they go long Saturday Night Live in the UK and short being tall. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
The Fed’s juggling act
19:06|The war has caused a spike in oil prices, which will pass costs through the economy. But if the economy is slowing, will there be enough inflation to send interest rates back up again? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong dissect Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell’s Wednesday comments about the conflicting signals in the economy. Also they go long clean air and long March Madness.For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
Are the markets right or wrong about Iran?
21:52|Oil is up, bombs are falling and investors are increasing their piles of cash. But the market isn’t far off its highs. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to square the dismal news with the sanguine market. Also they go short quarterly reporting and long introspection. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
Uncomfortable moments in private credit
21:41|There has been a steady trickle of bad news in private credit, and investors have been having a hard time getting their money out of funds. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong are joined by the FT’s US private equity and deals editor Antoine Gara. The three of them try to figure out if a small financial crisis is brewing. Also they go long 10-year Treasuries, long Ukraine ETFs and long the New York Jets.For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
Wildest day for oil ever
21:48|Over the weekend, the price of oil had its biggest intraday swing on record, bouncing between $84 and $119 per barrel in just 23 hours. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin survey the wreckage, and try to figure out if the price of oil is driving policy in Washington. Also they go long neckties and Korean food crazes. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
The case against stablecoins
26:31|The Genius Act allowed stablecoins to trade in the US as a legal form of currency. But can that really work? Today on the show, financial historian Brendan Greeley joins Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong to discuss if it makes sense to introduce a digital competitor to the dollar. Also they go long the Maidstone football team, short March and short tax trips to Dubai. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
Energy prices up, markets down
26:13|The US attack on Iran has muddled expectations for the year, especially in energy markets. Today on the show, US energy editor Jamie Smyth joins Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong to talk about Tehran’s counterattacks on US allies including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Also, they go short private assets and long UK pastry chain Greggs. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
What the actual tariff?
21:56|The Supreme Court just overturned President Donald Trump’s use of the emergency powers provision to impose tariffs. Now importers are suing for refunds, and the president has scrambled to leverage another old law to find a legal way to slow imports. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong are joined by Alan Beattie, of the FT’s Trade Secrets newsletter, to sort the mess out. Also, they go short the “Halo” trade and long irony. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com