Trigger Strategy

In this one, we answer a question:"I recently attended your Intro to Multiverse Mapping event and really enjoyed it. I'm also looking into Dave Snowden's Estuarine Mapping and noticed on your website that you facilitate that as well! What's the difference between Multiverse and Estuarine Mapping?"Linky goodness:Estuarine Mapping resourcesMaster Multiverse MappingBent Flyvbjerg's How Big Things Get Done in episode 86 and episode 87

Corissa and Tom talk through some examples of enshittification and the opportunities hidden within!Linky GoodnessCory Doctorow and EnshittificationAdam Mastroianni and Experimental History – and the article we were referencing a lotThe pile of sand and the edge of chaosDouglas Squirrel's Three Laws of AIHiut Denim – Do One Thing WellBen Mosior's Learn Wardley MappingInnovation Tactics card deck

We discuss the Honest Prioritisation MatrixFor some reason, the podcast description space here doesn't like images, so you can see it in this article about OKRs: https://triggerstrategy.substack.com/p/okrs-sound-good-but-they-dont-work

“How wonderful that we have met with a paradox. Now we have some hope of making progress” – Niels BohrIn this episode, we answer a question from friend of the pod, Brian: "Have you discussed that bit about being intentionally confused before? I am intrigued."We talk about why you might want to trigger intentional confusion (aporia) and what the risks can be.And we talk about how to trigger intentional confusion by zooming in or out – to get more specific or more abstract. And also by collectively making predictions to generate error signals that we can't ignore.Linky GoodnessEpisode 088: Complex isn't the same as complicatedMaster Multiverse MappingSpecificity and the power to judge startup ideas - Liron ShapiraThree Future Frames by John V Willshire of Smithery“Always design a thing by considering it in its next larger context – a chair in a room, a room in a house, a house in an environment, an environment in a city plan.” ― Eliel Saarinen

Brief notes today. This is kind of a wrap up of 2024 but not like others.TL;DR: a garden decking disaster becomes a meaningful framing for rearchitecting our business.What metaphor can you use to reframe your 2024?Linky GoodnessEpisode 043: Do 100 ThingThe Choice by Eli GoldrattMaster Multiverse Mapping

A lot of tech companies have bought into the idea of Build > Measure > Learn.But the "Build" bit always takes longer than anyone's anticipating, so the "Measure" and the "Learn" get squeezed out.Even though many of the people working in that system aren't happy that they're building crap and would love to be measuring and learning.In this episode, we talk about using Multiverse Mapping to help you prioritise your work so you benefit from uncertainty instead of being blown up by it. With real world examples, references to angry Lebanese people, a detour through performance management and another celebrity monster, We get back to Antifragile Prioritisation at 23:10.At the beginning of any project, we know the least we'll ever know about this project. So we should assume that we're going to learn important things as we do the project. But you can't just wait until you know the answers, because you'll only learn them through doing the project.Expirere: you need either experience or experimentation.In brief: create a model for how you're going to succeed, break that down into a level of granularity where you can identify critical behaviours, identify where you're facing the most uncertainty, then probe there first. Sounds trickier than it is – if you use Multiverse Mapping it's quite simple.Uncertainty is not the same as risk – uncertainty is generative, so you'll often get new, exciting ideas by running into the uncertainty. AND you'll also reduce your risk.And then we kinda debate around how much of the process of Multiverse Mapping can be explicit vs implicit. You do need to create a record for accountability, but don't make the mistake of trying to write down everything. Like all processes that support emergence: it's not that everything will just happen by itself, it's that you make something explicit and you get a happy side effect of updating lots of your tacit (shared) understanding.And we talk about using your Multiverse Map to set Pivot Triggers, which enable you to talk more strategically with stakeholders.And so you won't be doing Build > Measure > Learn – you'll be doing all three at the same time.Finally, we talk about using Multiverse Maps at a higher level of granularity to help you decide between different strategies.Linky GoodnessMaster Mutliverse Mapping: https://triggerstrategy.com/multiverse-mappingSatirical Skin in the Game review: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/feb/25/skin-in-the-game-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb-digested-readOne of Luca Dellanna's introductions to antifragility: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MS1CqSfxF4oEstimating Complexity by Liz Keogh: https://lizkeogh.com/2013/07/21/estimating-complexity/Vaughn Tan's Generative Uncertainty: https://vaughntan.org/generative-uncertainty

If you're someone who puts ideas out into the world, how do you manage the fact that you change your mind over time? What if someone comes across an article or podcast you no longer agree with and takes the wrong idea from it?Should you maintain a living knowledge base or leave a trail of past articles like breadcrumbs in the forest?Does the burden of assessing information fall on the author or the reader?And what if the problem is that your material references someone who now you realise is not great?We think through all this and come to a tentative conclusion, for the moment at least.Linky goodness:Annotated reading of A/B tests are not for settling your disagreements (podcast)Demolish your Creative Block with Graham Linehan and the Power of the SFD (article)Innovation Tactics (Tom's card deck)When your hero is a monster (YouTube video)Gaiman's Law:“Remember: when people tell you something's wrong or doesn't work for them, they are almost always right. When they tell you exactly what they think is wrong and how to fix it, they are almost always wrong.” – Neil Gaiman

"Every student is looking for a great teacher. What a lot of students don't realise is that every teacher is looking for a great student." – Ron LeslieWe're talking here about a dance workshop Corissa attended. But really this is about how to seek out and handle feedback in all kinds of situations.How do you evaluate whether feedback is helpful or not?How do you handle feedback or advice that's not constructive?What do you do with people who throw their opinions around confidently even though they're wrong?Challenges in evaluating your own level of experience or skillWhen you ask for feedback, do you really want to learn – or do you secretly want to be validated?Two ways to receive feedback badlyChoosing a team based on their ability to take feedback on boardAn example of a teacher deliberately showing a class that they don't know as much as they thoughtFeedback is taken differently by professionals vs hobbyistsPutting yourself out of your depth to trigger your lazy brain to want to put the effort in to learnSome teachers/bosses are trying to challenge you; others are abusiveSome options to try if you want to challenge yourself more

"We often give building a house as an example of something in the complicated sphere. But then we talked in recent episodes about the nightmare build of the Sydney Opera House – that was complex, but people were treating it like it was complicated. What's the difference? What makes one complicated and one complex? Is it a sliding scale from one to the other? How do you know which realm you're in?"This broad question comes up a lot when people encounter complexity.Hello again, CynefinThe phase shift from complicated to complexYou're not "in" any domain: instead, you decompose a project or situation into smaller chunks, distribute those chunks into domains, and then you can use applicable methodsThen your job is to move those chunks from one domain to another – like constraining something complex and unpredictable so you can make it more predictable for youEstimating Complexity by Liz Keogh: have you done this before?Light switches vs electricity substations vs energy markets vs power failures.Fun with etymology"An aeroplane is complicated; a mayonnaise is complex"The role of connectednessGlobal warming and a social ice ageMany folks are intuitively good at handling complexity without knowing all the words and that's OKProcesses and procedures to make things less unpredictable ... until they stop workingMethods to achieve the liminal complex to complicated phase shiftA Simon Wardley example of waste in an organisationThe surface layer of a thing is not necessarily everything that thing doesBoeing and the slip over the cliff from Clear to ChaosChesterton's aeroplane seatSeeds vs SoilThe liminal complicated zone where experts disagree and people have Opinions.If there's disagreement about an element of a project, decompose it until the disagreement goes awayIs there always a level of decomposition where you stop disagreeing? Football example ... Jefferson Fisher's courtroom example ...The move into Aporia and the EU Field Guide for Managing ComplexityLinky GoodnessCynefinEstimating ComplexitySeeds vs Soil – front | backJefferson FisherEU Field Guide for Managing Complexity