Trigger Strategy

We talk about signals. Specifically, how can you settle on success signals when your wider context is always changing? We talk about a small example: setting Pivot Triggers for our Multiverse Mapping course, while our context is always changing in terms of overall cashflow. When the runway is tight, we wish the course would hurry up and sell more, but how do we avoid over-reacting or putting all our eggs in one basket?We map that onto what happens in organisations when they need a new value stream to spool up quickly, how they can set unrealistic expectations, and how you can use something like Multiverse Mapping to figure out what's reasonable, and something like Pivot Triggers to help avoid sunk cost bias without having to be "the negative one".Linky goodness:J P Castlin's Strategy in PraxisGary's Economics – interview with Krishnan Guru MurthyIntro to Multiverse MappingMaster Multiverse MappingNotes on Chasm Crossing – a "better" version of the S-curve, because it shows the dip you'll feel in the early part of the curveSignals > Stories > OptionsEpisode 095: Enshittification

With one exercise, we can't predict whether your startup will succeed, but we can reliably predict if you're going to fail through procrastination.In this episode, we talk about mental blindspots. Corissa and Tom rib each other about their own mental blindspots. And we discuss how to pronounce the word "satiety"."It's more comfortable to fail when it's something you yourself have caused than when you fail at the hands of something that's outside your control." – Corissa“Hmm, I dunno, do you have any solutions that involve me doing everything 100% exactly like I'm doing it right now, and getting better outcomes?” – from Experimental History's So you wanna de-bog yourself.Can you detect any of these mental blindspots in yourself?Linky Goodness:Finish Your Projects - great, if winding article that inspired this episodeSo you wanna de-bog yourself - awesome articleTime Machine exercise Front | BackSnyder's Law neatly encapsulates one way founders procrastinateEpisode 077: Do you have to spend years in the pain cave?Can you stop the pendulum swinging? – where both ends of the pendulum swing encourage procrastination because they give you the illusion (or fact) of control and are comfortable to an MBA-worldviewBelief Whack-a-mole from David McRaney is in either You Are Not So Smart or How Minds Change ... anyone know for sure?Load bearing copes from Visakan Veerasamy

A lovely, meandering conversation about the nature of success, the binds we often put ourselves in and more.Along the way, we touch on maverick musicians, maddening constraints, and McDonald's coffee.Linky Goodness:Henrik Karlsson's note: https://substack.com/@henrikkarlsson/note/c-95418840My note on his note: https://substack.com/profile/2368401-tom-kerwin/note/c-95543621Paul Millerd's Pathless Path: https://newsletter.pathlesspath.comNotes on an introduction to Christopher Alexander: https://www.edovanroyen.com/p/notes-of-ryan-singers-introduction-to-christopher-alexander

In this one, we answer a question:"I recently attended your Intro to Multiverse Mapping event and really enjoyed it. I'm also looking into Dave Snowden's Estuarine Mapping and noticed on your website that you facilitate that as well! What's the difference between Multiverse and Estuarine Mapping?"Linky goodness:Estuarine Mapping resourcesMaster Multiverse MappingBent Flyvbjerg's How Big Things Get Done in episode 86 and episode 87

Corissa and Tom talk through some examples of enshittification and the opportunities hidden within!Linky GoodnessCory Doctorow and EnshittificationAdam Mastroianni and Experimental History – and the article we were referencing a lotThe pile of sand and the edge of chaosDouglas Squirrel's Three Laws of AIHiut Denim – Do One Thing WellBen Mosior's Learn Wardley MappingInnovation Tactics card deck

We discuss the Honest Prioritisation MatrixFor some reason, the podcast description space here doesn't like images, so you can see it in this article about OKRs: https://triggerstrategy.substack.com/p/okrs-sound-good-but-they-dont-work

“How wonderful that we have met with a paradox. Now we have some hope of making progress” – Niels BohrIn this episode, we answer a question from friend of the pod, Brian: "Have you discussed that bit about being intentionally confused before? I am intrigued."We talk about why you might want to trigger intentional confusion (aporia) and what the risks can be.And we talk about how to trigger intentional confusion by zooming in or out – to get more specific or more abstract. And also by collectively making predictions to generate error signals that we can't ignore.Linky GoodnessEpisode 088: Complex isn't the same as complicatedMaster Multiverse MappingSpecificity and the power to judge startup ideas - Liron ShapiraThree Future Frames by John V Willshire of Smithery“Always design a thing by considering it in its next larger context – a chair in a room, a room in a house, a house in an environment, an environment in a city plan.” ― Eliel Saarinen

Brief notes today. This is kind of a wrap up of 2024 but not like others.TL;DR: a garden decking disaster becomes a meaningful framing for rearchitecting our business.What metaphor can you use to reframe your 2024?Linky GoodnessEpisode 043: Do 100 ThingThe Choice by Eli GoldrattMaster Multiverse Mapping

A lot of tech companies have bought into the idea of Build > Measure > Learn.But the "Build" bit always takes longer than anyone's anticipating, so the "Measure" and the "Learn" get squeezed out.Even though many of the people working in that system aren't happy that they're building crap and would love to be measuring and learning.In this episode, we talk about using Multiverse Mapping to help you prioritise your work so you benefit from uncertainty instead of being blown up by it. With real world examples, references to angry Lebanese people, a detour through performance management and another celebrity monster, We get back to Antifragile Prioritisation at 23:10.At the beginning of any project, we know the least we'll ever know about this project. So we should assume that we're going to learn important things as we do the project. But you can't just wait until you know the answers, because you'll only learn them through doing the project.Expirere: you need either experience or experimentation.In brief: create a model for how you're going to succeed, break that down into a level of granularity where you can identify critical behaviours, identify where you're facing the most uncertainty, then probe there first. Sounds trickier than it is – if you use Multiverse Mapping it's quite simple.Uncertainty is not the same as risk – uncertainty is generative, so you'll often get new, exciting ideas by running into the uncertainty. AND you'll also reduce your risk.And then we kinda debate around how much of the process of Multiverse Mapping can be explicit vs implicit. You do need to create a record for accountability, but don't make the mistake of trying to write down everything. Like all processes that support emergence: it's not that everything will just happen by itself, it's that you make something explicit and you get a happy side effect of updating lots of your tacit (shared) understanding.And we talk about using your Multiverse Map to set Pivot Triggers, which enable you to talk more strategically with stakeholders.And so you won't be doing Build > Measure > Learn – you'll be doing all three at the same time.Finally, we talk about using Multiverse Maps at a higher level of granularity to help you decide between different strategies.Linky GoodnessMaster Mutliverse Mapping: https://triggerstrategy.com/multiverse-mappingSatirical Skin in the Game review: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/feb/25/skin-in-the-game-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb-digested-readOne of Luca Dellanna's introductions to antifragility: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MS1CqSfxF4oEstimating Complexity by Liz Keogh: https://lizkeogh.com/2013/07/21/estimating-complexity/Vaughn Tan's Generative Uncertainty: https://vaughntan.org/generative-uncertainty