Trigger Strategy

We often talk about things being emergent in business, strategy, and life at large. The problem is, emergence can be kind of a pain to wrap your head around. And we were wondering: what if the starting point is what's NOT emergent? Does that help clarify what IS emergent?So we sat down in the garden and chatted it through. We landed on the discipline of conversion rate optimisation as an example of a business area where an understanding of emergence (and its opposite, if you could call it that) is fundamental to success or failure.Our conclusion was that it was indeed a helpful conversation, but we want to know – what do you think?Linky goodness:Andrew Anderson's website: https://testingdiscipline.com/Andrew Anderson's story about Comic Sans: https://cxl.com/blog/organizational-push-back/Dave Snowden and Cynefin: https://cynefin.io/wiki/CynefinSignals, Stories, Options: https://triggerstrategy.substack.com/p/signals-stories-optionsPivot Triggers: card front | backMultiverse Mapping: card front | back Tom's Pip Decks card deck, Innovation Tactics: https://pipdecks.com/products/innovation-tacticsMaster Multiverse Mapping (online course): https://multiversemapping.com/Episode 39 about Bounded Applicability https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/663109cbcff31b0012ae9306

We made it to 100!Corissa and Tom look back over the year and a bit of podcasting and talk about what they've learned, some anecdotes, and some highlight episodes from along the way. They talk about allowing something to unfold into what it's meant to be, rather than trying to force a specific framework or result.Expect some of the usual themes: constraints, complexity, experimentation and psychology. And shout outs to Anna Brook, Louis Childs, Paul Tevis and all our lovely listeners.Linky goodness:Visakan Veerasamy's Do 100 Thing: https://www.visakanv.com/blog/do100things/Venkatesh Rao's Portals and flags: https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2014/06/25/portals-and-flags/Dave Snowden's Cynefin framework: https://cynefin.io/wiki/CynefinHenrik Karlsson's Unfolding: https://www.henrikkarlsson.xyz/p/unfoldingTom in JP Castlin's Strategy in Praxis: https://strategyinpraxis.substack.com/p/triggers-and-pivotsEpisodes mentioned:006: OKRs, moon landings and oil fires: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/663109cbcff31b0012ae9327018: a blustery annotated reading - A/B testing ain’t for settling your disagreements: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/663109cbcff31b0012ae931b019: North Star Metrics and Framework - are they “dumb”?: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/663109cbcff31b0012ae931a032: How Capable Leaders Navigate Uncertainty and Ambiguity - an annotated reading - Part 1: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/663109cbcff31b0012ae930d039: Bounded Applicability: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/663109cbcff31b0012ae9306040: Why isn’t [Role] doing what I think they should?: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/663109cbcff31b0012ae9305043: Do 100 Thing: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/043-do-100-thing044: The one with the bees: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/044-the-one-with-the-bees053: Smell the roses: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/053-smell-the-roses058: Reflections from UX London: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/058-reflections-from-ux-london060: Chesterton's vestigial doorman: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/060-chestertons-vestigial-doorman061: Tumbling into the Vision Chasm: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/061-tumbling-into-the-vision-chasm069: The alignment problem (not the AI alignment problem): https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/069-the-alignment-problem-not-the-ai-alignment-problem070: Lobster dinner with a toddler: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/070-lobster-dinner-with-a-toddler081: Alignment alignment alignment: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/081-alignment-alignment-alignment086: How big things get done (part 1): https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/086-how-big-things-get-done-part-1090: Should changing your mind mean changing your past work?: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/090-should-changing-your-mind-mean-changing-your-past-work

We talk about signals. Specifically, how can you settle on success signals when your wider context is always changing? We talk about a small example: setting Pivot Triggers for our Multiverse Mapping course, while our context is always changing in terms of overall cashflow. When the runway is tight, we wish the course would hurry up and sell more, but how do we avoid over-reacting or putting all our eggs in one basket?We map that onto what happens in organisations when they need a new value stream to spool up quickly, how they can set unrealistic expectations, and how you can use something like Multiverse Mapping to figure out what's reasonable, and something like Pivot Triggers to help avoid sunk cost bias without having to be "the negative one".Linky goodness:J P Castlin's Strategy in PraxisGary's Economics – interview with Krishnan Guru MurthyIntro to Multiverse MappingMaster Multiverse MappingNotes on Chasm Crossing – a "better" version of the S-curve, because it shows the dip you'll feel in the early part of the curveSignals > Stories > OptionsEpisode 095: Enshittification

With one exercise, we can't predict whether your startup will succeed, but we can reliably predict if you're going to fail through procrastination.In this episode, we talk about mental blindspots. Corissa and Tom rib each other about their own mental blindspots. And we discuss how to pronounce the word "satiety"."It's more comfortable to fail when it's something you yourself have caused than when you fail at the hands of something that's outside your control." – Corissa“Hmm, I dunno, do you have any solutions that involve me doing everything 100% exactly like I'm doing it right now, and getting better outcomes?” – from Experimental History's So you wanna de-bog yourself.Can you detect any of these mental blindspots in yourself?Linky Goodness:Finish Your Projects - great, if winding article that inspired this episodeSo you wanna de-bog yourself - awesome articleTime Machine exercise Front | BackSnyder's Law neatly encapsulates one way founders procrastinateEpisode 077: Do you have to spend years in the pain cave?Can you stop the pendulum swinging? – where both ends of the pendulum swing encourage procrastination because they give you the illusion (or fact) of control and are comfortable to an MBA-worldviewBelief Whack-a-mole from David McRaney is in either You Are Not So Smart or How Minds Change ... anyone know for sure?Load bearing copes from Visakan Veerasamy

A lovely, meandering conversation about the nature of success, the binds we often put ourselves in and more.Along the way, we touch on maverick musicians, maddening constraints, and McDonald's coffee.Linky Goodness:Henrik Karlsson's note: https://substack.com/@henrikkarlsson/note/c-95418840My note on his note: https://substack.com/profile/2368401-tom-kerwin/note/c-95543621Paul Millerd's Pathless Path: https://newsletter.pathlesspath.comNotes on an introduction to Christopher Alexander: https://www.edovanroyen.com/p/notes-of-ryan-singers-introduction-to-christopher-alexander

In this one, we answer a question:"I recently attended your Intro to Multiverse Mapping event and really enjoyed it. I'm also looking into Dave Snowden's Estuarine Mapping and noticed on your website that you facilitate that as well! What's the difference between Multiverse and Estuarine Mapping?"Linky goodness:Estuarine Mapping resourcesMaster Multiverse MappingBent Flyvbjerg's How Big Things Get Done in episode 86 and episode 87

Corissa and Tom talk through some examples of enshittification and the opportunities hidden within!Linky GoodnessCory Doctorow and EnshittificationAdam Mastroianni and Experimental History – and the article we were referencing a lotThe pile of sand and the edge of chaosDouglas Squirrel's Three Laws of AIHiut Denim – Do One Thing WellBen Mosior's Learn Wardley MappingInnovation Tactics card deck

We discuss the Honest Prioritisation MatrixFor some reason, the podcast description space here doesn't like images, so you can see it in this article about OKRs: https://triggerstrategy.substack.com/p/okrs-sound-good-but-they-dont-work

“How wonderful that we have met with a paradox. Now we have some hope of making progress” – Niels BohrIn this episode, we answer a question from friend of the pod, Brian: "Have you discussed that bit about being intentionally confused before? I am intrigued."We talk about why you might want to trigger intentional confusion (aporia) and what the risks can be.And we talk about how to trigger intentional confusion by zooming in or out – to get more specific or more abstract. And also by collectively making predictions to generate error signals that we can't ignore.Linky GoodnessEpisode 088: Complex isn't the same as complicatedMaster Multiverse MappingSpecificity and the power to judge startup ideas - Liron ShapiraThree Future Frames by John V Willshire of Smithery“Always design a thing by considering it in its next larger context – a chair in a room, a room in a house, a house in an environment, an environment in a city plan.” ― Eliel Saarinen