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Sept 28: Bitcoin Is Stuck Between $82K and $87K

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Bitcoin is trading around $83,300 as leverage continues to come out of the market, leaving the $82,000 to $87,000 range as the key structure to watch. Solana ETFs, meanwhile, recorded their strongest week yet with roughly $188 million in net inflows, led by approximately $128 million into Bitwise's fund. Franklin Templeton is also bringing tokenized money-market assets into Bybit's collateral system, allowing eligible users to access trading credit while the underlying assets remain in regulated custody and continue earning yield.


The bigger discussion is the SEC's new staff guidance on crypto token buybacks. For functional networks, the Division of Corporation Finance says an issuer's buyback of a non-security token does not by itself create the managerial promise necessary to make that token part of an investment contract. That raises a broader issue for token holders: owning a token associated with a company does not necessarily give you the ownership rights or legal protections of owning that company's stock. California is also restricting meme coins involving public officials, the Bitget hacker continues moving stolen XRP, Vitalik Buterin is outlining a more proof-driven and privacy-focused future for Ethereum, and Bitcoin researchers continue working on migration strategies for a future quantum threat.


Happy HODLing

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  • Oct 2: Stablecoins Move Deeper Into Banking and Zero-Knowledge Proofs Get Interesting

    12:17|
    Bitcoin is back above $86,000 as oil slips below $100 and Treasury yields pull back slightly, but the real test is whether $85,000 can become a new floor rather than another temporary pump. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $92.9 million in net outflows, while Lloyds Banking Group and Visa completed a live $750,000 cross-border settlement pilot using USDC. Evernorth shareholders also approved the company's business combination ahead of its planned Nasdaq debut, while Robinhood says the SEC's new tokenized-stock exemption may already impose limits that are too restrictive for the scale of its business.The SEC proposed a new crypto custody framework for investment advisers and regulated funds as Commissioner Hester Peirce prepares to leave the agency, while Circle and Hyperliquid are pushing European regulators on stablecoin reserve and perpetual-futures rules. NEAR Intents also temporarily halted services following a roughly $3.8 million exploit and says affected users will be compensated. Meanwhile, the Ethereum Foundation and Open Anonymity Project launched zkAPI, using zero-knowledge proofs to separate payments for AI and other API services from users' identities, another example of privacy-preserving cryptography moving toward practical applications.Happy HODLing
  • Oct 1: Bitcoin Holds $84K

    17:24|
    Bitcoin remains around $84,000 even as the 10-year Treasury yield pushes above 5.3%, its highest level since 2002. August PCE inflation came in cooler than expected, while Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $139 million in net outflows. Citi nevertheless raised its 12-month Bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000 and its Ethereum target from $2,240 to $3,028. The Treasury's expanded long-duration bond buyback program is also feeding a larger debate about debt management, liquidity and the growing role stablecoin issuers could play as buyers of short-term government debt.European regulators are scrutinizing Binance's operations under MiCA, while the Swiss National Bank is warning that large-scale stablecoin adoption could weaken traditional monetary-policy transmission. The prediction-market regulatory fight is also intensifying in Washington, MetaMask is precautionarily exiting affected Ethereum validators following misdirected block rewards, and DogeOS is developing an EVM-compatible environment that could expand Dogecoin into smart contracts, DeFi and other applications. Bitcoin itself remains stuck in the same basic structure, with $80K to $82K as the key floor and $87K as the next major level to reclaim.Happy HODLing
  • Sept 30: Bitcoin Holds $83K Ahead of PCE

    12:12|
    Bitcoin remains stuck around $83,700 as Treasury yields stay elevated and markets wait for August PCE inflation data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs nevertheless recorded another $66.2 million in net inflows, extending their positive streak to nine trading sessions. Robinhood is rolling out AI agents capable of automatically executing trades along with crypto perpetual futures offering up to 10X leverage, Coinbase Clearing is now a registered CFTC derivatives clearing organization, Blockchain.com is reportedly pursuing an IPO at a $4 billion to $6 billion valuation, and Bitwise has launched the first U.S. spot NEAR ETF.The Bitget hack is also turning into a test of crypto's censorship-resistant ideals. NEAR Intents intervened when hacker-linked funds attempted to move through its system, while THORChain refused Bitget's request to blacklist attacker addresses and subsequently processed swaps involving millions of dollars in hacker-linked assets. Meanwhile, Zcash developers are targeting more than 50,000 private payments per second, Aztec has relaunched zk.money as a privacy-focused Ethereum wallet, and Cboe and S&P are considering future tokenized options. Matt's immediate market focus remains unchanged: hold the $80K to $82K Bitcoin floor, then see whether $87K can eventually become support instead of resistance.Happy HODLing
  • Sept 29: Bitcoin Holds $84K Despite $107 Oil

    12:55|
    Bitcoin is holding around $84,000 despite Brent crude trading around $106 to $107, Treasury yields above 5% across much of the curve and significant market expectations for another Fed rate hike. Strategy added another 1,665 Bitcoin for roughly $143 million while repurchasing about $152 million of STRC preferred shares, and Tom Lee's BitMine has now accumulated more than 6 million ETH. A Senate investigation also found heavy USDT usage among hundreds of sanctioned Iran-linked wallets, while Tether says it has helped freeze roughly $550 million in Iran-linked USDT this year.The Bitget hack is also raising a larger philosophical question after attackers attempted to move more than $50 million through NEAR Intents, which intervened despite describing its service as permissionless and uncensorable. Meanwhile, Anthropic's potential IPO is already being traded through synthetic crypto perpetuals before the company actually goes public, and its enormous infrastructure commitments highlight another Bitcoin headwind: AI companies are becoming major borrowers in an already crowded bond market. Vitalik Buterin is also outlining a dramatically different Ethereum architecture for 2030 built around cryptographic proofs, formal verification and quantum-resistant technology.Happy HODLing
  • Sept 25: Bitcoin Holds $84

    09:13|
    Bitcoin is holding around $84,000 despite a difficult macro backdrop, with the 10-year Treasury yield around 5.2%, oil above $100 and markets pricing additional Fed tightening. Spot Bitcoin ETFs nevertheless recorded another roughly $190.7 million in net inflows, extending their positive streak to six days and approximately $2.84 billion. Meanwhile, ARK Invest is bringing its $1.3 billion venture fund onchain through Securitize, giving eligible investors Ethereum-based access to a fund containing stakes in companies including OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe and Databricks.The Federal Reserve has also begun implementing the GENIUS Act with proposed rules governing stablecoin reserves, capital, custody and applications from banks that want to issue payment stablecoins. Matt argues that the increasingly important question is who captures the billions of dollars in potential yield generated by stablecoin reserves. Bitget also disclosed a $351.6 million security breach involving its wallet infrastructure, while its protection fund is large enough to cover the estimated losses. Across all of these stories, the larger theme continues to be traditional financial infrastructure moving onchain while Bitcoin holds surprisingly firm despite worsening macro conditions.Happy HODLing
  • Sept 24: Bitcoin Falls Back Toward $82K

    17:30|
    Bitcoin has fallen back to roughly $83,500 after failing to hold $85,000, putting the $80,000 to $82,000 support area back in focus. The macro backdrop has become less favorable as Treasury yields rise, oil rebounds and strong economic data keeps additional Fed tightening in the conversation. The positive counterweight is institutional demand: according to the figures discussed on the show, spot Bitcoin ETFs added another $346.9 million Wednesday, extending their streak to five consecutive inflow days and roughly $2.65 billion. Meanwhile, Blockchain.com and the NYSE are exploring 24/7 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs, while the Trump administration is reportedly considering partnerships to promote dollar stablecoins internationally as a way to reinforce dollar dominance and Treasury demand. On the technology side, AI-assisted optimization cut the estimated computing cost of one experimental quantum-resistant Bitcoin transaction method from about $320 to $66, although the cheaper estimate has not yet been demonstrated in another mined transaction. Matt's immediate market question remains simple: after spending weeks trying to break through $80K to $82K, can Bitcoin now prove that same area is support? Happy HODLing
  • Sept 23: The Stablecoin Endgame?

    20:21|
    Bitcoin is holding in the mid-$85,000 range as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF demand remains strong, with roughly $714 million of additional inflows following Monday's nearly $1 billion. But today's main discussion comes from Bravo's Research, which lays out a theory connecting Treasury's long-duration debt management, greater reliance on short-term Treasury bills and the rapid growth of dollar stablecoins as a potential new structural source of T-bill demand. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly said that stablecoin growth could strengthen the dollar and increase demand for U.S. Treasuries, although the specific three-step strategy discussed on the show is analysis rather than an announced Treasury policy. Bravos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u70oUWgVoYU&utm_source=chatgpt.comStablecoin infrastructure is also moving deeper into traditional finance, with SoFi migrating a card program expected to process more than $25 billion annually onto SoFiUSD settlement and six major Canadian banks exploring tokenized deposits. Coinbase has launched fixed-rate USDC loans backed by Bitcoin, the CFTC is warning exchanges about manipulation risks in prediction markets tied to what specific people say or do, and Solana's Alpenglow upgrade targets finality of roughly 150 milliseconds versus about 12.8 seconds today. Matt's broader takeaway is that crypto infrastructure is increasingly disappearing underneath conventional financial products, meaning many future users may interact with blockchain settlement without thinking of themselves as crypto users. Happy HODLing
  • Sept 22: Bitcoin Holds Above $85K as ETF Inflows Explode and Corporate Buyers Come Back

    22:49|
    Bitcoin held above $85,000 after briefly trading above $87,000, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $999 million in net inflows on Monday. Matt argues that this is an important transition point because the short squeeze that helped drive the initial breakout cannot continue indefinitely. The next leg higher needs genuine buyers, and the surge in ETF demand, combined with new purchases from Strategy and Strive, provides stronger evidence of sustained demand. Elsewhere, Binance invested $100 million in Circle while also facing another U.S. sanctions investigation involving Iranian activity. White hats recovered another 52 Bitcoin tied to the COLDCARD exploit, X added trading links to stock and crypto cashtags, and Cardano joined the x402 payment standard for autonomous AI agents. Matt remains bullish on the improving infrastructure around crypto but wants Bitcoin to establish the low-to-mid $80,000 range as support before assuming the rally can continue indefinitely. Happy HODLing